Suit combination

[bridgeboy]

Hi all,

 

Getting late here so might as well post it and get answer tomorrow morning :)

 

How do you play this suit at Notrumps

 

432

 

 

Q1085

 

Given you only have 2 entries to dummy, how do you play if you need

 

(i) 2 tricks

(ii) max no. of tricks

 

Any program for suit combination that takes into account the number of entries you have?

 

Thanks all :(

[helium]

i would play small to 10, and small to Q next time in both

[Free]

I have a little program, which tells me the following:

 

2 tricks: 22.5466%

1 trick : 75.8385%

 

Line: play small to the lowest card in south covering RHO's card. So start with low to the 8 (or the 10 when RHO plays 9, or the Q when RHO plays the J), and keep finessing as low as possible.

[1eyedjack]

I have a little program, which tells me the following:

 

2 tricks: 22.5466%

1 trick : 75.8385%

 

Line: play small to the lowest card in south covering RHO's card. So start with low to the 8 (or the 10 when RHO plays 9, or the Q when RHO plays the J), and keep finessing as low as possible.

It is possible that this line may require 3 entries in order to maximise your chances. You may be right, but I recognise that entry limitations could have an effect, and I also have seen these computer programs, and they do not generally take this into account.

[laughter]

A rough calculation comparing 2 lines (lead low to 8 or lead low to 10):

 

Assuming 3-3 breaks (20 combinations, 35.5% chances):

Lead low and cover RHO works in the following cases:

a) Hxx (left) HJ9 (right) (2 combinations)

:) AKx (left) J9x (right) (2 combinatins)

 

Lead low to 10 works in a) but fails in b. It also works when:

c) H9x (left) HJx (right) (4 combinations)

Ah! I almost forget to include d) 9xx (left) AKJ (right). Of coz, anyone can pick this up.

Leading low to 10 works for 2 more 3-3 combinations.

 

Assuming 4-2 breaks (30 combinations, 48 % chances):

Lead low and cover RHO works when:

a) Hx (left) HJ9x (right) (4 combinations)

Oops! You have only 2 entries and can not lead toward your hand thrice. The entry restriction makes you unable to pick this one up. You can just pick up:

:) xx (left) AKJ9(right) (1 combination)

Not very good.

 

Lead low to 10 works in b plus:

c) H9 (left) HJxx (right) (2 combinations)

Oops! wrong again. RHO holds HJ76 and you need to lead from dummy a third time to neutralize the power of his spot. You can't pick this one up.

Two lines works equally when the suit is 4-2.

 

I guess it is now clear that leading low to 10 works better (just ignore those 5-1/6-0 as you probably can't pick them up with only 2 entries).

 

What does all these analysis prove?

It prove that:

a) I am poor at counting combinations and permutations.

B) due to entry restriction, you can't deal with 4-2 break effectively.

 

Since you can't deal with 4-2 breaks, you must concentrate on 3-3 and leading low to 10 stands out a mile when you a) want to take 2 tricks OR B) want to maximize your tricks.

[pclayton]

A rough calculation comparing 2 lines (lead low to 8 or lead low to 10):

 

Assuming 3-3 breaks (20 combinations, 35.5% chances):

Lead low and cover RHO works in the following cases:

a) Hxx (left)  HJ9 (right) (2 combinations)

<_< AKx (left)  J9x (right) (2 combinatins)

 

Lead low to 10 works in a) but fails in b. It also works when:

c) H9x (left) HJx (right) (4 combinations)

Ah! I almost forget to include d) 9xx (left) AKJ (right). Of coz, anyone can pick this up.

Leading low to 10 works for 2 more 3-3 combinations.

 

Assuming 4-2 breaks (30 combinations, 48 % chances):

Lead low and cover RHO works when:

a) Hx (left) HJ9x (right)  (4 combinations)

Oops! You have only 2 entries and can not lead toward your hand thrice. The entry restriction makes you unable to pick this one up. You can just pick up:

:) xx (left)  AKJ9(right) (1 combination)

Not very good.

 

Lead low to 10 works in b plus:

c) H9 (left)  HJxx (right) (2 combinations)

Oops! wrong again. RHO holds HJ76 and you need to lead from dummy a third time to neutralize the power of his spot. You can't pick this one up.

Two lines works equally when the suit is 4-2.

 

I guess it is now clear that leading low to 10 works better (just ignore those 5-1/6-0 as you probably can't pick them up with only 2 entries).

 

What does all these analysis prove?

It prove that:

a) I am poor at counting combinations and permutations.

B) due to entry restriction, you can't deal with 4-2 break effectively.

 

Since you can't deal with 4-2 breaks, you must concentrate on 3-3 and leading low to 10 stands out a mile when you a) want to take 2 tricks OR B) want to maximize your tricks.

Laughter - I'm glad you read the rules of the site. As the new poster, you are required to provide a minimum of 20 detailed analyses of suit combos or determining the correct % play.

 

Your probation period ends when you submit the 20 hands or you get to 100 posts.

 

Enjoy the site. :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D