Washington, we have a problem!

[mike777]

If you create something that is of value then espionage can have value...not nunsense.

 

In any event I would hate for all of my utterances to be online after 12 months...You may not....:)

[y66]

Nice piece of writing here by Nate Silver on Bayseian inference and the likelihood that charges against Mr. Assange are politically motivated.

[kenberg]

Actually I think that the piece claims to apply Bayesian reasoning to determine the probability that the charges are true, given that they are politically motivated.

 

From his next to the last paragraph:

 

I suspect this point will seem obvious to many of you: the fact that the charges are (apparently) politically motivated is indeed a reason to regard them skeptically, and they make it less likely — perhaps much less likely — that Mr. Assange is guilty of them.

[/Quote]

 

If Bayes reasoning is to be brought into this at all (I think it shouldn't be) then this sort of fussing about words is mandatory. A lot of stuff with Bayes type reasoning depends critically on exactly what the statements are, with slight changes in wording producing dramatic changes in results.

 

Here is from an AP report:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iJMhH_ugT3eq6KUg1i94WTQBKy0A?docId=aa53c814621d4daba2224f37dda6ba33

 

 

The case appears anything but clear-cut. A chief prosecutor in Stockholm dropped the rape complaint shortly after the case began, and it would most likely have ended there had it not been for Borgstrom.

 

The 66-year-old lawyer successfully appealed the decision to a more senior prosecutor who relaunched the investigation. Two-and-half months later, when Assange had already left Sweden, the senior prosecutor got court approval for a request to interrogate Assange on suspicion of rape, sexual molestation and unlawful coercion.

[/Quote]

 

Reading the full AP report I get the impression that there may not be all that much disagreement as to what actually took place. No doubt there will be differences in interpretation. As a general statement, my view is that if a woman consents to sex providing that a condom is used then the consent only applies if the proviso is respected. But, as I say, there will be arguments on the details.

 

I am not Swedish, I don't live there, etc, and I can happily duck getting into the gory details if this goes to trial. On the different but related issue of why these charges were brought, skepticism is perhaps warranted (in most matters that you learn about through the media skepticism is warranted) but it would appear that the women went to the police because they felt that they had been mistreated, and that the lawyer representing them thinks they have a case under Swedish law. I am content to let it work its way through the Swedish courts.

[cherdano]

Nice piece of writing here by Nate Silver on Bayseian inference and the likelihood that charges against Mr. Assange are politically motivated.

I don't know. Articles by Silver that do not contain numbers are often less insightful, and this one is no exception.

I often think in terms of Bayesian analysis, and I still don't know what he is trying to say in the article. Is the trying to say that political motivations make it more likely that the charge is weak? D'uh! If there wasn't political motivation for charging him, we wouldn't even be discussing this case!

[y66]

I got it backwards as Ken pointed out.

 

Silver's point isn't that this is not obvious but that

 

I have come across a number of analyses that try to evaluate the merits of the charges without regard to this political context, or which otherwise seem caught up in debating their salacious details. That is likely a mistake: in a world of limited information, the political motivation behind the charges might be the most important clue we have in evaluating their merit.

 

For me, this question of criminal wrongdoing is interesting because I want to believe this guy is one of the good guys. I would also like to believe the Swedish prosecutor is doing this because she thinks it's the right thing to do, not because of political pressure.

[kenberg]

One can speculate along many lines.

 

Sample: Julius had his way with Olga on Monday and with Ursula on Tuesday, and told them both that they were the woman he had been waiting for all of his life. On Wednesday the women met for coffee and after a bit of discussion decided they would go to the police and see if they could do to the the smooth talking stranger what he did to them.

 

Sample: The women are CIA sleepers.

 

Sample: The case really sucks, but the lawyer recognized a good publicity stunt when he saw it.

 

 

Sample: The story happened just as the women say it did.

 

 

Who knows? I am hoping that there will be enough of a paper trail to make it highly reasonable to conclude that the women are bringing this action based on the law and on what happened between them and Assange. I certainly allow for other possibilities but whenever a woman brings a charge there are other possibilities. I think we need to wait and see.

 

 

Ultimately, I favor decoupling the man's sexual behavior from his political activities.

[onoway]

To let him speak for himself as to his intentions, although this was taped several months ago