Round 5, boards 13-14

[inquiry]

Jlall-han lead 64 to 50 after 12 boards.

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sakq63ha5da5ckt62&n=sj97hq92dkq92caq7&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1np2cp2dp3sp4sp5cp5sp6n]266|200|Board 13

Dlr N

Vul Both

 

North Mrgoodwin, South timG[/hv]

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sakq63ha5da5ckt62&n=sj97hq92dkq92caq7&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1dp1sp1np2dp2sp3cp3dp3sp3np4hp4sp4np5cp5np6dp6hp7nppp]266|200|North han South Jlall

There are 12 top tricks in Spades and notrump, but the contract you want to be in is the grand

 

Scores:

7N = 10

7S = 9

6N = 7

6S = 6

5N =3

5S = 2

[/hv]

 

74 Jlall-han

57 Goodwins 6N

 

 

 

------------------------------

 

 

[hv=pc=n&s=sathk9dakqt53ck97&n=s8752ha72d7caqjt2&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=3h5dp5hp5sp5np6nppp]266|200|Board 14

Dlr East

Vul None

 

NS Goodwins

 

[/hv][hv=pc=n&s=sathk9dakqt53ck97&n=s8752ha72d7caqjt2&d=e&v=0&b=14&a=3h3np4cp4dp6cp6nppp]266|200|NS Han/Jlall

 

I liked this hand because I wondered if anyone would find 7C's. This one was harder to score than I thought. 7C is the best spot, much better than any other grand, and in fact, much safer than even 6NT. So i give 7C the top score of 11. Luckily both pairs bid 6NT so it is not a problem for the contest!!

 

Then 7NT makes 70% of the time, so it gets an 8. Those are the easy ones. We have to compare 6NT (79%) to make with 7NT. It beats 7NT 30% of the time, but loses to it 70% fo the time.

 

Scores

7C = 11

6N = 8

7N = 8

7N = 7

6C = 5

6N = 6

[/hv]

 

82 Jlall-han

65 Goodwins 6N

Edited November 26, 2010 by inquiry
Correct running scores, change scores for 6N and 7N on board 14

[PhantomSac]

Hand 13: One of our few good auctions. I think partner knew I was 5314 or 5224 with AKQ A A K by the end of the auction when he made his decision. The play is interesting. I thought 7N would be more better than 6N that indicated in the scoring if the line was this:

 

SA (testing for 5-0 spades).

DA

DK

DQ (pitching heart)

HA

Run spades

 

On the last spade you will have to pitch the HQ or the diamond. If east was marked with 5 diamonds, pitch your heart. Otherwise pitch your diamond. If west had 4 or 5 diamonds I think a squeeze is automatic at this point. If east had the 4 diamonds you still have a C+H squeeze or clubs coming in etc etc.

 

With this line you make a huge % of the time. There might be a better line, curious if anyone sees one!

 

Hand 14: The scoring doesn't matter since we bid the same contract I guess, but I strongly dispute how often you think 7N makes. With east having 7 hearts diamonds coming in is a much lower % than a priori. Additionally I dispute that 6C>6N. If they don't lead a spade, 6N is cold on non 5-1 diamonds. A spade lead will be very tough from any non KQ holding. If they do lead the SK you can duck and have a squeeze against them when they're 5+S 4+D (notably 5143). 6N seems way better to me than 6C.

 

Again I had a guess at the end of the hand. 6N or 7C seemed correct, and I didn't think I could gamble on the HA since partner could have KQxx x xx AQJxxx or similar. Another wrong guess.