Round 5, Boards 3-4

[cherdano]

I like the discussions on the auctions and don't like the discussion about scores, but the scoring for no. 4 is just too awful. 6D is probably slightly above 50% (diamonds 2-2, or DJ singleton with not too awful breaks, or diamonds 3-1 with the long diamond in the same hand as the long spades). Anyway, 6 is about right. But since 3N almost always beats 5D, 5D will be a bad MP score rather than a good one.

[inquiry]

On hand 3, perhaps I put too much weight into West's VUL versus non-vul 2♥ overcall. A lot of hearts is certain, but I also credited him with spade king. This sets him up for a potential squeeze/throw in.

 

If you restrict your thoughts to west has a bunch of hearts but the other cards are randomly placed (but not something like 8 spades with East or West 76 in the reds), the odds of 6♣ making goes down considerably. Just restricting West to 6+ hearts to at least one top honor, 6♣ can make roughly 60% of the time. There is no doubt that 3NT is better than 5♣, and that 6♣ is better than average (0.6x12 = 7.2). My thoughts were that with long hearts and the king of spades with West increase the chances that the diamond Queen is with East, or that after the diamond hook loses, diamonds are 3-3 and you can squeeze West in the majors (ruffing out East's heart stopper should he have an honor). So I had 6♣ making above 75% of the time, but that also involves droping Qx offsides when it is right.

 

So i think perhaps my estimate of 6♣ was too rosy. So its score is reduced to an 7 (an 8 might be better). 3NT is solid contract, and will make most of the time with overtricks and since 6C has been reduced in scoring, 3NT has to go up a bit, so I rate it as a 9, and 5C always makes, but 3NT will outscore 5C the vast majority of the time, and 6C outscore it at least 60% and probably higher. So the results will be scored as...

 

3N = 8

6C = 7

5C = 4

 

This affects the original scores only marginally, since no one bid 6♣, but 3NT goes up a bit (actually real world, 3NT is probably 6, 6C is an 8, and 5C is a 2).

 

20 Jlall-han

16 Goodwins

 

 

Board 4.

The original scores were crazy.... forget them.

 

5♦ is the worse contract

3NT is the safest contact and 6♦ has great chances. B

 

6D = 9

3N = 7

5D = 2

 

This results in huge pickup for the Goodwins

After four boards now,

Jlall-han = 22

Goodwins = 25