ATB

[nige1]

[hv=pc=n&s=skt74h962daj5ckq8&w=saj986hqt4dq63c63&n=sq532hj75dt9cj974&e=shak83dk8742cat52&d=e&v=b&b=10&a=1d(4+%21d)1s1n2sdppp]399|300|

Help me settle an argument, and assign the blame :)

Imps

-3 for 800[/hv]

IMO Bad luck = 70%. South = 30%. North 0%,

IMO, a four-card suit overcall should include three honours, so South is slightly to blame.

[hotShot]

The trouble with 2♠ is not that 2♠ is likely to be too costly. The trouble is that South will expect more and will either overcompete or when 3♠ is making he will bid game going down again. As for getting them to tree level I do not think that they are going down.

 

Maybe I am wrong but as I see it 2♠ has very little upside to it. Does anyone really think 2♠ making will buy it? Do you really expect to make 4♠ if South bids it?

You are addressing something that won't happen.

North can expect opener to have 12+ HCP and responder to have 6+ HCP, so he knows his partner is in the range of the agreed minimum and 17 HCP.

South can expect opener to have 12+ HCP and responder to have 6+ HCP looking at his own 13 HCP he knows that North won't have more than 9 HCP.

 

Both North and South can see that this is a partscore battle.

You win in bridge if your opps make wrong decisions,

you win more often, if you make sure that opps decisions are difficult.

2♠ usually makes Easts decision more difficult, unfortunately not on this board.

[Fluffy]

So because opponents are suposed to have their bids and partner knows it I don't have to have my bid?

 

If partner is gonna trust opponents more thna me, he probably should change and find another partner (one of the opponents he trusts for example)

[ArtK78]

Strongly dislike 1♠ on such a weak suit. I don't even know if I want a spade led.

 

Dislike the raise to 2♠. More likely to mislead partner than cause problems for the opps.

[gwnn]

"trusting to have your bid" is not the point. Suppose your partner knows that he makes game opposite a 9 count and doesnt opposite a 6 count (this is a simplified argument with simple numbers). If it had gone 1S-p-2S, partner can expect more or less 25% for each of 6,7,8,9. However, when both opponents have acted, the odds change dramatically, probably to 50-40-15-5 or something like that. Basically 9 would usually mean that opponents have rock bottom of their range and probably must have stretched also. Of course psyching from their part is also possible but I don't think it affects the situation much. So partner can trust my bids but he should know that more likely than not I have a minimum. Anyway, sure, sometimes when you have a minimum partner (considering everything) willstill overbid to a game. That's in the job description and does not mean that you should never have a minimum. Sometimes both players take the best calls on the balance of probabilities and the result is bad or even horrible. (Please note that I am not referring to the two hands in the opening post, just defending theraise from N)

[mgoetze]

If it had gone 1S-p-2S, partner can expect more or less 25% for each of 6,7,8,9.

 

I am not convinced of this.

[gwnn]

I'm not convinced of this either. There are a lot of factors involved. But the point is that the probability of him having 9 is less when everybody is bidding than when nobody is bidding.

[Fluffy]

I keep counting north's points, but I never reach 6 :P

[mgoetze]

I keep counting north's points, but I never reach 6 :P

 

I guess this proves that the bidding wasn't 1♠-p-2♠ :P

[gwnn]

I know that but we have 4 trumps. All I was saying was that partner should realise that we'll almost always have a minimum here. That's more or less what hotshot was saying - partner shouldn't try for game very often. And that he shouldn't disregard opposing bidding just because they're opponents.

[hrothgar]

I appear to be one of the few in the "***** happens" camp...

 

I've gotten a lot of very good results

 

1. Overcalling with hands like South's

2. Raising to 2♠ on hands like North's

 

And, on occassion, I've gotten very bad results doing the same.

Personally, i think that the pluses outweight the minuses.

I'm not gonna get too worked up when if/when the card gods aren't smiling...

 

To me, the fundamental issue on the hand is about variance:

 

Overcalling 1♠ is a high variance style.

If you're playing this style, you shouldn't be overly concerned about individual hands.

Its all about long term trends...

 

With all this said and done, if I were to attach blame, I'd primarily place it on North.

 

Both opponents have had an opportunity to clarify values and describe their hands. Preempting in Spades isn't quite as attractive as one might think.

 

RHO advanced 1NT over 1♠. He has limited his hand and announced that he has trump. We're a bit more vulnerable to a double.

 

North holds a quacky 4333. The 4th trump is nice, but there isn't that much offensive potential.

 

As I said, I don't have a serious problem with either bid. However, if I had to place blame I dislike the raise more than the overcall.

[mtvesuvius]

Richard:

• North has a 4324 hand
  
• Raising to 2♠ seems completely normal unless you overcall on total crap (which I guess you do?)
  
• Although sh*t happens, this is an awful lot of sh*t happening IMO.
  
• What kind of good results usually come from overcalling bad 4 card suits that you don't want led when you are vulnerable? Please explain.
  
• RHO would also bid this way with Kxx♠ or Kx even.
  

[pooltuna]

I keep counting north's points, but I never reach 6 :P

 

 

0.5 for the T; 0.5 for the two 9s; 1 for the doubleton; and the other 4 are HCP :) :)

[wank]

Disagree with free. Why is this in the SAYC and 2/1 forum?

[hrothgar]

Richard:

• North has a 4324 hand
  
• Raising to 2♠ seems completely normal unless you overcall on total crap (which I guess you do?)
  
• Although sh*t happens, this is an awful lot of sh*t happening IMO.
  
• What kind of good results usually come from overcalling bad 4 card suits that you don't want led when you are vulnerable? Please explain.
  
• RHO would also bid this way with Kxx♠ or Kx even.
  

 

Sorry about the comment about the 4=3=3=3 hand.

 

I normally play a bidding system in which the South hand is a clear cut 1♥ opening (where 1♥ is a transfer to Spades) and the North hand would most likely raise to 2♠ (some would prefer a pass)

 

I find is difficult to get worked up about overcalling a hand where I would open.

 

As for the gains:

 

You've forced the opponents out of their constructive bidding sequences

You've gobbled up the entire 1 level

[Phil]

I appear to be one of the few in the "***** happens" camp...

 

I've gotten a lot of very good results

 

1. Overcalling with hands like South's

2. Raising to 2♠ on hands like North's

 

And, on occassion, I've gotten very bad results doing the same.

Personally, i think that the pluses outweight the minuses.

I'm not gonna get too worked up when if/when the card gods aren't smiling...

 

To me, the fundamental issue on the hand is about variance:

 

Overcalling 1♠ is a high variance style.

If you're playing this style, you shouldn't be overly concerned about individual hands.

Its all about long term trends...

 

With all this said and done, if I were to attach blame, I'd primarily place it on North.

 

Both opponents have had an opportunity to clarify values and describe their hands. Preempting in Spades isn't quite as attractive as one might think.

 

RHO advanced 1NT over 1♠. He has limited his hand and announced that he has trump. We're a bit more vulnerable to a double.

 

North holds a quacky 4333. The 4th trump is nice, but there isn't that much offensive potential.

 

As I said, I don't have a serious problem with either bid. However, if I had to place blame I dislike the raise more than the overcall.

 

I'm appreciating your bridge-related posts more now than I have in years past, but I think you've slid off the road here:

 

Opening a moscito-style 1♥ systemically is fine, just as in any 4cM based system. However, once they have opened, overcalling frequently serves as a defensive tool. There are plenty of hands that I would open and not overcall, and many more that I would overcall and not open. The South hand is a pile of defense, without a lot of offense. However, I have convinced myself that competing on reasonable 4333's (actually JL convinced me) is a good idea, and this is a good example. I don't think spades is necessarily our final resting place, since there is a great chance that a red suit is better than spades.

 

Furthermore, you don't really want a spade lead against NT (unless partner tables it themselves). If partner leads any other suit, you welcome this.

 

If you are playing with a poor partner that cannot declare to save their life, then 1♠ has a lot going for it. You probably don't mind a spade lead against a suit contract playing with someone bad, since its better than a heart lead.

 

I get the 'high variance' idea, and that's fine, but what exactly are the big wins for 1♠? Are you simply trying to play contra the other table to generate swings? I'd be interested to see why you think 1♠ is better than double, although its easy to see how it might work better than pass.

[hrothgar]

 

I get the 'high variance' idea, and that's fine, but what exactly are the big wins for 1♠? Are you simply trying to play contra the other table to generate swings? I'd be interested to see why you think 1♠ is better than double, although its easy to see how it might work better than pass.

 

The only reason that I prefer 1♠ to double is the amount of bidding space that it consumes.

 

A double increases the bidding space available to the opponents.

1♠ overcall decreases it significantly.

 

[in reality, this isn't completely fair comparison... If I start will a double, partner might be able to bouncing the bidding in any of the remaining suits. If I overcall 1♠, partner can only raise spades. Even so, I prefer 1 Spade)

 

Please note: If the hand had been a 3=4=3=3 with the major suits switched, I almost certainly prefer double to 1♥

[mgoetze]

Even so, I prefer double

 

Good, so we all agree actually. ;)

[hrothgar]

Good, so we all agree actually. ;)

 

Typo corrected

[bid_em_up]

I can't comment on South's bidding without officially earning my first warning, so I will refrain from doing so.

[TimG]

I normally play a bidding system in which the South hand is a clear cut 1♥ opening (where 1♥ is a transfer to Spades) and the North hand would most likely raise to 2♠ (some would prefer a pass)

 

I find is difficult to get worked up about overcalling a hand where I would open.

 

As for the gains:

 

You've forced the opponents out of their constructive bidding sequences

You've gobbled up the entire 1 level

The situation where you open and raise is very different from the situation where you overcall. When you open and raise before the opponents have had a chance to say anything other than pass is much more favorable to your side than when they have opened. Likewise, once responder has been able to define his hand narrowly with 1NT, the advantages of the raise almost go away. You're not taking them out of their constructive bidding comfort zone, they've likely said what they want to say and if they haven't, they won't have much trouble saying it now.

 

I've gotten a lot of very good results

 

1. Overcalling with hands like South's

 

I challenge you to produce "a lot" of examples of good results achieved when you've overcalled 1♠ on an indifferent suit and a 4=3=3=3 hand. I suspect that you haven't had the opportunity to overcall on "a lot" of such hands, much less encountered enough such hands to build a significant set of data.

[TimG]

A double increases the bidding space available to the opponents.

1♠ overcall decreases it significantly.

They opened 1♦. A 1♠ overcall takes away a 1♥ and 1♠ response while adding the possibility of doubling.

 

So, if they would have responded 1♥, they have a double available; if they would have responded 1♠ we have saved them the trouble (and they have NT bids available to show balanced hands with spades).

 

What significant bidding space have you taken from the opponents?

[hrothgar]

 

I challenge you to produce "a lot" of examples of good results achieved when you've overcalled 1♠ on an indifferent suit and a 4=3=3=3 hand. I suspect that you haven't had the opportunity to overcall on "a lot" of such hands, much less encountered enough such hands to build a significant set of data.

 

Hi Tim

 

I don't have a corpus of 4333 hands where I overcalled with a mediocre four card suit.

Don't even have any 4432 hands where I overcalled with a mediocre 4 card suit.

 

With this said and done, as recollection serves, I have overcalled 1M plenty of times with mediocre 4 card suits.

As I recall, these paid off more often than not.

 

FWIW, Sue does much the same.

I don't think its surprising that Free posted this original example.

[hotShot]

What significant bidding space have you taken from the opponents?

 

RHO opened and you hold 13 HCP, this means that with a probability close to 1, you 2 hold 25+ HCP, leaving 15- HCP for LHO and your partner. With some confidence you can expect LHO to have 6-10 HCP, reducing his probable bidding space to:

a nonforcing ♦ raise, 1♥, 1♠, 1NT.

By bidding 1♠ you take away half of that.

Now opps gain dbl as additional bid, and if their agreement is that dbl is equivalent to 1♥ you only took away 25% of the bidding space. But a common agreement is that dbl is negative or support in this situation, which means they lose some of the meaning of the 1♥ reply.

 

It is a very common agreement that 1NT requires a stopper in opponents suit. If you overcall a 4 card suit that has 2 of the top 3 honors, the chance that LHO has a stopper is close to 1/3. With this agreement opps lose a lot of their 1NT bid too.

 

With this hand however missing 2 top honors the loss of the 1NT bid is smaller.

If you take OP's hand and change South ♦A with Wests ♠A replacing it with a small card so that the shape remains,

South will still be down 3, but it will be harder for West to bid 1NT, perhaps he would bid 2♦ or pass. Depending on Wests bid, East is less likely to dbl 2♠.

[TimG]

hotShot, I don't necessarily disagree with what you have said, but I think you also need to factor in consideration that taking away the opponents' bidding space is sometimes beneficial to them. When responder has a weak hand (6-7 HCP) it may be best for them if they are not in the auction and our interference may make it easier for them to get out.