How to play this slam?

[twcho]

[hv=pc=n&s=skj82hk9dajt96cq2&n=sq973haj8dkcak965&d=s&v=b&b=7&a=1dp2cp2dp2sp3sp4cp4dp4hp4np5sp6s]266|200|Team match. East lead a small ♣. How will you continue?[/hv]

[kayin801]

I confess I would try to pitch one club from dummy and ruff another. Should work whenever clubs are 4-2 or better and spades are 3-2 or 4=1 (if we start trumps from hand)

[inquiry]

North's first bid was 2♣ (a suit) and East lead a ♣ into it? I would think a heart lead or a trump lead most likely, so I would VERY worried about the highly unexpected ♣ lead.

 

What is their opening lead agreement (4th best, 3rd/5th).

 

Seems East is either trying to get a ruff himself, or give his partner a ruff. If he is trying to get a ruff, odds are he does not have he ♠A and they will get it, unless you can discard a club on the ♥A. If he is trying to give his partner a ♣ruff either one of them might have the ♠A.

 

I am not sure what way to go, but I will start by winning the ♣Queen. What are the spots played? They hold in ♣'s the JT8743. I don't think you can survive a 4-1 or 5-0 trump split.

 

Option 1.. ♥K, ♥J, ♥A pitch a ♣, then ♦K then play on trumps. This line requires luck in the ♦ suit, plus luck in ♥ suit, and ♠ split 3-3, and they can not get a trump promotion by forcing dummy to overruff a club. The trump spots are good enough that trump promotion is not a problem. But still this is reading a lot into the opening lead.

 

Option2... hope hand with ♠A is the one short in ♣'s (3:2 chance). Now you will need to either, ruff two diamonds in North (set up ♦) without them being able to overtrump. You might survive a 5-2 diamond split if hand with 5♦ has the ♠T. So win ♣Q, ♦K and play a spade towards ♠KJ... now need to know what happens next.

 

BTW, I have a lot of respect for anyone who takes the heart hook at trick two or three.. for the ♣ discard. That is probably the winning line. But I will go with the two diamond ruff line, because the ♦Q might fall doubleton and one ruff would be enough.

[rhm]

The ♣ lead is suspicious and could be a singleton.

However, I am nor prepared to risk everything on an immediate ♥ finesse to get rid of my second ♣.

This play would only be necessary at this stage if both the ♥queen and the trump ace are with West. Even assuming ♣ to be 5-1 the chance for this is less than 16%.

Under these circumstances East is more likely to hold the trump ace (60%) than West to have the ♥ queen (40%) now.

Also if anybody, I will play East to be long in trumps after the lead.

T1:Play ♣ queen

T2:Trump to the ♠ queen.

If it holds (but no ♠ ten) cash ♦ king and play another trump to hand.

If it wins, but West shows out, ruff a ♦ before playing another trump.

Whatever happens you can accommodate 4 trumps with East and ruff one ♦ on the table.

Without a ♣ ruff, this gives you 11 tricks with many chances for another one.

If trumps are 3-2 and ♣ no worse than 4-2 you are home by establishing clubs after trumps have been drawn.

If trumps are 3-2 and clubs 5-1 play for the double squeeze after cashing the ♣. West will hold ♣, East may have to hold on to the ♦ queen, if it does not drop, and nobody will be able to keep 3 ♥ in the endgame. This also wins whenever West holds the ♥ queen and either the ♦ queen or the ♣s.

If East has 4 trumps play for the double squeeze as before and discard a ♣ from dummy when the last trump is drawn. After trumps have been drawn cash ♣, come back to the king of ♥ and use the ace of ♦ as the final squeeze card.

However, in this case East has a chance to break up the double squeeze if he wins precisely the third round of trump and returns another ♦.

If East finds this defense and no ♦ queen appears, play ace and king of ♥ and if no ♥queen appears, finally the last trump to squeeze West if he holds ♣ and either red queen.

If East has both red queens I will congratulate him to this fine squeeze defense.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

The ♣ lead is suspicious and could be a singleton.

However, I am nor prepared to risk everything on an immediate ♥ finesse to get rid of my second ♣.

This play would only be necessary at this stage if both the ♥queen and the trump ace are with West. Even assuming ♣ to be 5-1 the chance for this is less than 16%.

Under these circumstances East is more likely to hold the trump ace (60%) than West to have the ♥ queen (40%) now.

 

Those are the probabilities when East was dealt a singleton club. When East chooses to lead a singleton club, the probability that West has ♠A is close to 100%.

[inquiry]

Those are the probabilities when East was dealt a singleton club. When East chooses to lead a singleton club, the probability that West has ♠A is close to 100%.

 

Exactly!!!

 

Which is why I was asking what cards where played at trick one.... and discussing the clubs they hold (JT8xxx). If East is short in clubs, West is likely to follow with a "x" as he has two of them. If west is short in clubs, he will follow with the one he has. I would assume that with JT8xx EAST would lead the JACK. So if West follows with the J, T, or 8 under the queen (well certainly the J or T), I will play WEST for the short club.

 

So if West follows low under the ♣Queen, I might very well go back and reconsider the immediate heart King and heart hook.... for a club discard.

[gnasher]

I would definitely take the heart finesse immediately. People don't make passive leads on this sort of auction, when they know that there are two suits likely to provide discards. The only reason that East might have for leading a club is that the suit is 5-1.

 

Imagine yourself on lead against this bidding with Axx Qxxx xxx xxx. Would you lead a club? No, of course you wouldn't - you'd lead a heart, hoping to find partner with ♥K and side suit holdings that prevent an immediate pitch.

[rhm]

Those are the probabilities when East was dealt a singleton club. When East chooses to lead a singleton club, the probability that West has ♠A is close to 100%.

I admit that leading a singleton against a slam is more attractive if you do not have the trump ace, but claiming that a singleton lead almost denies the trump ace is nonsense.

It is not my experience that people shy away from a singleton lead against a slam, almost no matter what the rest of their hand is and I doubt that it is wrong.

A singleton lead remains attractive. Among others it restricts declarer's early communication.

And if it induces declarer to take desperate measures like the heart finesse here, you are well advised to lead your singleton, whether you have the ace or not.

It is also not unheard of that players fake singleton leads against slam.

But even if you would be right about the ♣ and the trump ace, your chances of finding the queen of ♥ with West is now only 37% and even if the ♥ finesse wins you are still not home.

How do you continue? At the very least you would still need trumps to break.

As I said I am not so very convinced from the lead that this scenario exists, that I am suddenly be prepared to take my "only chance".

 

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

How do you continue? At the very least you would still need trumps to break.

A trump break would be sufficient: 3 spades, three hearts, three clubs, two diamonds, and one ruff. I may have to guess which player has the singleton club, but West's play at trick one will probably tell me that.

 

I start with a spade to the king, which holds, presumably. Then:

- If I think East has the singleton club, I play a spade to the queen

- If I think West has the singleton club, I play a diamond to the king and a small spade towards the jack.

[rhm]

A trump break would be sufficient: 3 spades, three hearts, three clubs, two diamonds, and one ruff. I may have to guess which player has the singleton club, but West's play at trick one will probably tell me that.

 

I start with a spade to the king, which holds, presumably. Then:

- If I think East has the singleton club, I play a spade to the queen

- If I think West has the singleton club, I play a diamond to the king and a small spade towards the jack.

 

So to summarize you play - based on the opening lead - for a scenario, which has a predealt likelihood of 6% to exist (♠ ace with 5♣). Note that even if we assume that the opening lead has made this scenario to exist 5 times more likely we are still only at 30%.

Then based on this scenario you come up with a declarer play with around 25% chance of success (♥ queen with West plus trump break, plus some minor other goodies).

 

Sorry I am not convinced. My believe in opponents opening leads against slams has limits. I prefer to concentrate on the remaining scenarios.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[inquiry]

So to summarize you play - based on the opening lead - for a scenario, which has a predealt likelihood of 6% to exist (♠ ace with 5♣). Note that even if we assume that the opening lead has made this scenario to exist 5 times more likely we are still only at 30%.

Then based on this scenario you come up with a declarer play with around 25% chance of success (♥ queen with West plus trump break, plus some minor other goodies).

 

Sorry I am not convinced. My believe in opponents opening leads against slams has limits. I prefer to concentrate on the remaining scenarios.

 

Rainer Herrmann

 

As I noted in my earlier post to this thread, my position is very similar to rhm's. I would "respect" someone who took the ♥ finesse prior to touching trumps so he could throw away a ♣ from dummy, but that I would not do it. The problem is, if the finesse loses, you will go down, and quite possibly down two (although down one or two, no big difference at imps). I left the door open that if WEST plays the ♣J or ♣T (and perhaps the ♣8), I might change my mind and play on hearts. The logic being if EAST low club is a singleton, West would follow low, if East was leading from a five card suit trying to hit his parnter's shortness, he might have choose ♣J from JT8xx so if WEST plays a "x" it is not likely a singleton, if he plays J or T, it is more likely a singleton.

 

Twcho, how about "the rest of the story", or if someone knows the absolute best play they could share. :)

[twcho]

[hv=pc=n&s=skj82hk9dajt96cq2&w=sa54ht6532d7532cj&n=sq973haj8dkcak965&e=st6hq74dq84ct8743]399|300|The actual lead was ♥Q and it solved the declarer's problem. I just wonder how north should play this hand if east lead a small ♣ instead.[/hv]