Climate change

[luke warm]

Don't pat yourself to hard on the back for having successfully disproved it, everyone else came into this discussion already knowing it was false.

okay

[PassedOut]

Satellite documents thinning ice shelf

 

A European satellite has observed a rapid retreat of one of Antarctica's ice shelves, which is half the size it was 10 years ago, the European Space Agency said Thursday...

 

Larsen B measured 11,512 square kilometers in January 1995. It went down to 6,664 square kilometers in February 2002 after several parts broke off, and a month later Larsen B was down to 3,463 square kilometers.

 

The space agency says the satellite's observations confirm the vulnerability of the ice shelves to climatic warming.

And sea levels keep rising.

[dwar0123]

Satellite documents thinning ice shelf

 

 

And sea levels keep rising.

Counter intuitively the two are not directly linked :) An ice shelf is ice that is already supported by water and as such its melting actually decreases sea level. This is due to ice being less dense then water that is just above freezing.

[Al_U_Card]

Counter intuitively the two are not directly linked :) An ice shelf is ice that is already supported by water and as such its melting actually decreases sea level. This is due to ice being less dense then water that is just above freezing.

 

Shhhhhh! Don't confuse them with facts. :blink: They are desperate for anything that even looks remotely catastrophic, to hold up the Global Warming meme machine. ;)

 

The evidence refuting [CO2] as climate-control pariah is mounting every day. The world continues its climate-cyclical ways, no matter what puny man throws at it. The money-grubbers will continue to try and get their hands on our tax dollars, but CAGW climate "science" is finally being shamed out of existence. :P

 

Couldn't happen to a less decent bunch of ad-hominem generating, consensus-seeking, argumenters from authority. :angry:

[PassedOut]

Counter intuitively the two are not directly linked :) An ice shelf is ice that is already supported by water and as such its melting actually decreases sea level. This is due to ice being less dense then water that is just above freezing.

Yes, I know. When I first looked at the photo, it appeared to me that the melting ice had been from the land. My comment was off the mark there.

 

But warmer temperatures also melt the antarctic and Greenland glaciers. And that melting does keep the sea levels rising.

[Al_U_Card]

 

But warmer temperatures

 

you forgot to add in "caused by rising [CO2]"

 

other readers might not be in lock-step with the Church of Climatology doctrine... :lol:

[dwar0123]

Shhhhhh! Don't confuse them with facts. :blink: They are desperate for anything that even looks remotely catastrophic, to hold up the Global Warming meme machine. ;)

 

The evidence refuting [CO2] as climate-control pariah is mounting every day. The world continues its climate-cyclical ways, no matter what puny man throws at it. The money-grubbers will continue to try and get their hands on our tax dollars, but CAGW climate "science" is finally being shamed out of existence. :P

 

Couldn't happen to a less decent bunch of ad-hominem generating, consensus-seeking, argumenters from authority. :angry:

I adore science, I adore it for its proven track record, its unrelenting systematic method of refining our knowledge of the Universe through competitive evidence based testing.

 

Science is a method with a bias for the truth. Man's imperfection certainty dirties sciences purity, but over time sciences bias for truth grinds the impurities out and leaves us with nothing short of flawless beauty.

 

Maybe you are right, I seriously doubt it. The evidence behind global warming is very robust, if future evidence proves otherwise great, but the risk of you being wrong is catastrophic.

 

Global warming isn't just an idea, it is a full fledged theory that WILL be tested with dramatic results one way or the other. I honestly hope you are right because I think you and people like you will succeed in shoring up the global inertia that is preventing the requested changes.

 

I hope you are right, but I am sure you are wrong.

 

Oh and please, just because I love science and intellectual honesty, please don't confuse me with you.

[Al_U_Card]

No worries, no danger of that happening.

 

Just refer to the afore-mentioned, fact-based evidence in this thread versus the computer-model generated hysteria that the Hansen gang-that-couldn't-calculate-right present as their "proof" of man-made global climate disruption (or whatever they are calling it these days...)

 

The data refutes their daily-changing hypotheses (hardly a theory, as the supposed (they keep changing it) null hypothesis cannot be refuted) so according to Karl Popper's and Richard Feynman's definitions as well as the analyses of hundreds of other real scientists, the CAGW meme doesn't belong in the scientific discourse.

 

Your hope is a start. Analysis is better and proof is best. Rhetoric, innuendo and hysteria are all they have left.

[dwar0123]

Your hope is a start. Analysis is better and proof is best. Rhetoric, innuendo and hysteria are all they have left.

Your rhetoric and innuendo is hysterical.

[WellSpyder]

An ice shelf is ice that is already supported by water and as such its melting actually decreases sea level. This is due to ice being less dense then water that is just above freezing.

Errrm..., I'm not a scientist but I'm not sure this should pass unquestioned since it doesn't sound right to me. Sure, ice is less dense than water - that's why it floats. But it only displaces its own weight of water, not it's own volume. And when it melts it becomes its own weight of water, so the effect on the sea level is exactly the same whether it stays as ice or turns into water.

[Al_U_Card]

Despite having "projected" (more akin to vomit than actual food for thought) wildly catastrophic sea-level rises back in the day. Real measurements fall way short of what the models provided as numbers (again, they are skewed to show big changes so what else is new...)

 

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

 

Break it down...

 

http://www.climate4you.com/images/NSIDC%20GlobalArcticAntarctic%20SeaIceArea.gif

 

And since that famous "death spiral" for the Great White North was predicted for this decade....how's that going?

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

 

Still on the low side admittedly, but we have just finished the 30 year "warm" part of the cycle, so what goes down does come back up...

[luke warm]

Still on the low side admittedly, but we have just finished the 30 year "warm" part of the cycle, so what goes down does come back up...

i can't wait for the day when they want to tax carbon because we need to put more CO2 in the atmosphere to slow down the ice age

[Al_U_Card]

i can't wait for the day when they want to tax carbon because we need to put more CO2 in the atmosphere to slow down the ice age

 

That would be their plan "B" :lol: :lol: :lol:

[PassedOut]

Greenland ice sheet on the slide

 

The Greenland Ice Sheet is accelerating in its slide into the ocean, like snow sliding off a roof on a sunny day.

 

According to the University of Colorado Boulder, massive releases of meltwater from surface lakes are speeding up sea level rise.

And mankind continues to spew billions of tons of heat-trapping gasses into the atmosphere every year...

[Al_U_Card]

Sounds like a fatalistic certainty. Unless the actual author of the paper might not look at it exactly like that....

 

During a typical catastrophic lake drainage, about 1 million cubic meters of meltwater — which is equivalent to the volume of about 4,000 Olympic swimming pools — funnels to the ice sheet’s underside within a day or two. Once the water reaches the ice sheet’s belly that abuts underlying rock, it may turn the ice-bed surface into a Slip ‘N Slide, lubricating the ice sheet’s glide into the ocean. This would accelerate the sea-level rise associated with climate change.

 

Alternatively, however, the lake drainages may carve out sub-glacial “sewers” to efficiently route water to the ocean. “This would drain the ice sheet’s water, making less water available for ice-sheet sliding,” Colgan said. That would slow the ice sheet’s migration into the ocean and decelerate sea-level rise.

 

“Lake drainages are a wild card in terms of whether they enhance or decrease the ice sheet’s slide,” Colgan said. Finding out which scenario is correct is a pressing question for climate models and for communities preparing for sea-level change, he said.

 

At least he is being scientific in his appraisal...

[Al_U_Card]

What with the GISS gang adjusting temperatures all the time, it is interesting to see the nature of changes made in other spheres...

 

sea-level rise

 

sea ice

 

You have to keep your eye on the pea.....some shell game. Skeptics are keeping track.

[PassedOut]

It took quite awhile for public perceptions to cut through the disinformation campaigns that disputed the health dangers of smoking. But eventually everyone (or almost everyone) recognized the dangers.

 

It's the same thing today with the disinformation campaigns that dispute the dangers of man-made global warming. More and more folks are recognizing that the dangers are real: Most Americans Link Global Warming to Weather Madness

 

72 percent of Americans believe global warming worsened the unusually warm winter of December 2011 and January 2012; 70 percent said it worsened the record high summer temperatures in the U.S. in 2011; the drought in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 (69 percent); record U.S. snowfall in 2010 and 2011 (61 percent); the Mississippi River floods in the spring of 2011 (63 percent); and Hurricane Irene (59 percent).

 

(While scientists can't tie climate change to any one weather event, they do have evidence that with global warming extreme events will become more common.)

I remember reading about the skeptical reaction to Lightner slam doubles in the early days of Contract Bridge. The author (alas, I forget who it was) explained that, because there were no sensible arguments against them, players eventually began to adopt them.

[Al_U_Card]

Most Americans Link Global Warming to Weather Madness

 

 

(While scientists can't tie climate change to any one weather event, they do have evidence that with global warming extreme events will become more common.)

 

 

Every reputable scientific source recognizes and reiterates that none of any recent weather events have anything to do with [CO2] and therefore there is nothing that we can do about the weather....doh!

 

Dr. Pielke I presume?

 

Any research shows that extreme events occur and that now is not a particularly unusual period. We are even in a lull, of sorts, possibly due to the current global climatic systems having produced slight warming. This may soon change as we head into a cooling period, especially if the Sun goes into a Dalton-like minimum for its next few cycles.

 

A survey full of vague and opinion-like questions is quite the scientific source...(check the purveyor of this for yourselves).

 

Not all of us are old enough to remember the dust-bowl of the 30's but some certainly are aware of the droughts of the 50's and the snows of the 70s. As the data and non-agendized analysis is presented more and more evidence appears to indicate that the models have it so wrong as to be totally irrelevent, except for drumming up hysteria and more grant money.

[hrothgar]

Every reputable scientific source recognizes and reiterates that none of any recent weather events have anything to do with [CO2] and therefore there is nothing that we can do about the weather....doh!

 

As usual, Al is misrepresenting sources

 

I think that almost all climate scientists would agree that it is nigh impossible to attribute any one, isolated climate event to global climate change.

 

That is a VERY different claim than "No recent weather event has anything to do with C02".

Anyone make such a claim would be very much in the minority.

 

I'll leave it for the peanut gallery to decide whether he's a liar or just stupid

[Al_U_Card]

Note the startling change as [CO2] increases over the decades.

 

http://www.real-science.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/EF3-EF5-21.png

 

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/image016.gif

 

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/statewiderecordhightemperatures.png?w=600&h=371

 

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/paintimage3357.jpg?w=640&h=263

 

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/global_running_ace.jpg

 

Just the facts....Double doh!

[hrothgar]

Lets look at some of the information that Al is providing. For example, the following chart

 

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/statewiderecordhightemperatures.png?w=600&h=371

 

If we google "Statewide Record High Temperature by Decade" and look at "images" we see this same chart in position #2.

 

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&pwst=1&rlz=1C1CHFX_enUS470US470&q=statewide+record+high+temperatures+by+decade&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.r_qf.,cf.osb&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=X0aRT7vsKOf46QHw3p3CBA&biw=1920&bih=979&sei=ZEaRT_PjC47H6AGq9NS5BA

 

If we follow the link at on this page, we learn that this chart was created in 2007, using data collected in 2003.

 

The methodology seems badly flawed if your goal is presenting information about cumulative sum...

 

Of course, the real problem with the chart is the assumption that an increase in temperature necessarily corresponds to an increase in the number of record high temperatures.

 

Consider the following:

 

I have a time series which consists of repeated draws from a Gaussian distribution.

It should be clear that the frequency of a record setting temperature is inversely correlated with time.

(Each time I set a record high temperature, it becomes that much more difficult to set a new record temperature)

 

Now, lets add a linear trend to that time series.

 

It's definitely possible to chose a sufficiently steep slope such that the positive bias from the trend dominates the negative bias from the noise component.

At the same time, its also very easy to specify a noisy time series with a statistically significant positive trend that exhibits a decreasing number of record high temperatures.

[PassedOut]

Antarctic ice melting from below, reveals satellite

 

Most of the melting ice shelves are located in west Antarctica, where the flow of inland glaciers to the sea has also been accelerating — an effect that can be compounded by thinning ice shelves which, when grounded to the offshore seabed, serve as dams to hold glaciers back.

 

Melting of ice by ocean currents can occur even when air temperature remains cold, maintaining a steady process of ice loss — and eventually increased sea level rise.

The Frozen Planet TV series has a good description of this. And the series has hours of spectacular film of both the arctic and antarctic.

[luke warm]

next thing you know, the ocean temp will start dropping and the current will change and massive low pressure systems will form and flags will freeze in mid-wave and the prez will set up camp in mexico

[Al_U_Card]

Or perhaps he will just declare that the rest of the antarctic sea ice is increasing and the net effect is a big plus...big enough to overcome the losses of sea ice in the arctic... B-)

 

Maybe that is where all of the "missing" heat is going? <_<

 

At least Dr. Trenberth is missing it, because without it there can be no catastrophic global warming.Try as they might to invoke wind shear readings, none of the thousands of ARGO buoys or temperature radiosondes or even satellite readings can find it. :blink:

 

Perhaps we could use the side of a milk carton? :lol:

[Daniel1960]

Antarctic sea ice has been increasing for years. Globally, there is significantly more ice at the Arctic (largely water), than the Antarctic (largely land), such that the global changes are dominated by the changes in Arctic sea ice. During the last few years, the Arctic has experienced wider annual swings in sea ice, such that the graph of global sea ice bottoms out in the northern hemisphere summer, and returns to average during the winter.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png

 

Much speculation has propped up recently as whether the summer melting may have a similar mechanism as early 20th century Arctic sea ice decrease, namely an influx of warm Atlantic water.

 

http://www.nerc-essc.ac.uk/~olb/PAPERS/len19.pdf