Climate change

[kenberg]

In some strange way, I think that the commitment, coupled with verification, but without explicit enforcement of exact actions, is the right approach. I understand skepticism about that, but my sense of it is that it will bring many countries together on a common goal and leave room for innovative approaches. Perhaps I am naive. A little naivety is useful now and then.

 

At any rate, I am feeling quite good about it. If I'll cry tomorrow, well, it has happened before.

[Al_U_Card]

The "feel good" aspect is part of the marketing used to sell the concept. Proof of product involves current total "commitments" reducing global temps by about 0.17 C by 2100 at a cost of trillions. (Time and resources otherwise usefully expended on nuclear power development and improvements to existing energy supplies and production facilities.) And those are the IPCC numbers based on their modelled climate sensitivity numbers that appear to be well beyond actually measured and observed reality.

I guess what makes you feel good should be taxed but do we really need the junkets and bureaucracy?

[kenberg]

The "feel good" aspect is part of the marketing used to sell the concept. Proof of product involves current total "commitments" reducing global temps by about 0.17 C by 2100 at a cost of trillions. (Time and resources otherwise usefully expended on nuclear power development and improvements to existing energy supplies and production facilities.) And those are the IPCC numbers based on their modelled climate sensitivity numbers that appear to be well beyond actually measured and observed reality.

I guess what makes you feel good should be taxed but do we really need the junkets and bureaucracy?

 

Junkets. Hmm. Maybe I should see if they can use a mathematician. Have Theorem, will travel.

i recall that the Fields Medalist Steve Smale reportedly said, "I proved my best theorems on the beaches at Rio".

 

Oops. i should be serious.

[billw55]

Junkets. Hmm. Maybe I should see if they can use a mathematician. Have Theorem, will travel.

i recall that the Fields Medalist Steve Smale reportedly said, "I proved my best theorems on the beaches at Rio".

 

Oops. i should be serious.

Wait what, you weren't being serious?

[y66]

Paris produced a stronger global consensus for action and a useful rudder for steering a more sensible future course. It did not undo the damage that has been done already, it did not solve the major challenge for climate policy, namely the free-rider problem that William Nordhaus, the guy who proposed the 2C "limit" 40 years ago, talks about and no one thinks that the voluntary pledges to reduce emissions that countries have made to-date will get us more than halfway to an emissions target consistent with 2C.

 

I think the New York Times editorial staff's take on the Paris accord is about right. I also think prospects for passing a revenue neutral carbon pricing bill in Congress have improved. Won't happen in this Congress and probably not even in the next Congress. Even if it happens by 2022, that's probably about 40 years too late. Pathetic? Yes. But not as pathetic as 50 or 60 years too late which is where we were headed before Paris. Here's looking at you kids.

[Daniel1960]

Paris produced a stronger global consensus for action and a useful rudder for steering a more sensible future course. It did not undo the damage that has been done already, it did not solve the major challenge for climate policy, namely the free-rider problem that William Nordhaus, the guy who proposed the 2C "limit" 40 years ago, talks about and no one thinks that the voluntary pledges to reduce emissions that countries have made to-date will get us more than halfway to an emissions target consistent with 2C.

 

I think the New York Times editorial staff's take on the Paris accord is about right. I also think prospects for passing a revenue neutral carbon pricing bill in Congress have improved. Won't happen in this Congress and probably not even in the next Congress. Even if it happens by 2022, that's probably about 40 years too late. Pathetic? Yes. But not as pathetic as 50 or 60 years too late which is where we were headed before Paris. Here's looking at you kids.

 

Any serious carbon policy is unlikely until the economics of alternate energy production improves relative to carbon-based fuels. The idea that any action is too late is pessimistic, bordering on apocalyptic. Everything that has occurred thus far is reversible. At current trends, 2C will not be reached this century. Although 2C is a rather arbitrary limit.

[Al_U_Card]

And roughly equivalent to the Bronze Age climate when civilization grew and prospered, unlike the little ice age (2 C less) when the plague rampaged and crop failures caused starvation and wars. Makes perfect sense as a limit...to humanity.

[blackshoe]

I learned today that Supergirl's Aunt Astra is determined to save Earth from humanity's abuse of the planet, just as she tried to save Krypton from the Kryptonian's abuse of that planet. She only failed, of course, because Supergirl's mother Alura locked her up in the Phantom Zone. Now if only Astra can convince her niece to join with her, all will be well. Except for the humans, of course. Who needs them? :P

[Al_U_Card]

Junkets. Hmm. Maybe I should see if they can use a mathematician. Have Theorem, will travel.

i recall that the Fields Medalist Steve Smale reportedly said, "I proved my best theorems on the beaches at Rio".

 

Oops. i should be serious.

You could always hope for THIS (The link describes how one delegate "spent" her downtime at CoP Paris.)

 

"Naturally, the Australian Conservation Foundation “stands for ecological sustainability. We get to the heart of environmental problems by tackling the underlying social and economic causes. We work across society to influence urgent, transformative action to deliver lasting change on the scale required to secure a sustainable environment.” And they use your money to do so – along with cash from volunteers, who must be delighted at how much of it has been converted to Moët."

[mike777]

Interesting article in this weeks New Yorker how south Florida, south of Orlando seems doomed to be unlivable and under water. Miami Beach which is a town off of Miami is already under water. Much of Florida's ground is porous limestone, rock with holes in it, which floods easily.

[Daniel1960]

Interesting article in this weeks New Yorker how south Florida, south of Orlando seems doomed to be unlivable and under water. Miami Beach which is a town off of Miami is already under water. Much of Florida's ground is porous limestone, rock with holes in it, which floods easily.

Miami Beach is not already underwater. The area floods frequently, due to the high tides and low elevation. Miami Beach has over 90,000 residents, a 5% increase since 2010. If it were underwater already, I suspect many would have moved out by now, and the population would be decreasing.

[hrothgar]

Miami Beach is not already underwater. The area floods frequently, due to the high tides and low elevation. Miami Beach has over 90,000 residents, a 5% increase since 2010. If it were underwater already, I suspect many would have moved out by now, and the population would be decreasing.

 

Well, high tide for today in Miami Beach was at 12:28 PM, so odds are it was flooded when Mike was writing...

[Daniel1960]

Well, high tide for today in Miami Beach was at 12:28 PM, so odds are it was flooded when Mike was writing...

 

Unlikely. The article was referring to unusually high tides, like the super blood moon or lunar eclipses. Miami Beach does not currently flood at high tide.

[mike777]

Speaking of depopulation, the mayor of the town of South Miami is currently working on a "slow and graceful depopulation".

 

However Kenneth Griffen a very famous hedge fund, recently divorced guy from Chicago just bought the highest price home in Dade County...Miami Beach for 60Million...ten million more than the asking price. It is a penthouse, high off the ground. So yes some people are still buying homes there.

[Daniel1960]

Speaking of depopulation, the mayor of the town of South Miami is currently working on a "slow and graceful depopulation".

 

However Kenneth Griffen a very famous hedge fund, recently divorced guy from Chicago just bought the highest price home in Dade County...Miami Beach for 60Million...ten million more than the asking price. It is a penthouse, high off the ground. So yes some people are still buying homes there.

 

Yes, I usually read these stories with a grain of salt. IF the situation was truly dire, then the people would be leaving in droves. A similar situation is occurring among the Pacific islands. Claims of rapidly sinking islands do not coincide with mass emigration. Thus far, it is still status quo.

[billw55]

I also think prospects for passing a revenue neutral carbon pricing bill in Congress have improved. Won't happen in this Congress and probably not even in the next Congress. Even if it happens by 2022, that's probably about 40 years too late. Pathetic? Yes. But not as pathetic as 50 or 60 years too late which is where we were headed before Paris. Here's looking at you kids.

Congress and revenue neutral .. like oil and water?

[hrothgar]

Yes, I usually read these stories with a grain of salt. IF the situation was truly dire, then the people would be leaving in droves. A similar situation is occurring among the Pacific islands. Claims of rapidly sinking islands do not coincide with mass emigration. Thus far, it is still status quo.

 

Here's an alternative explanation

 

1. The inhabitants don't have enough money to move

2. There is no place out there willing to take them

 

I'm sure that once the situation gets dire enough, those Australian concentration camps might start looking good...

However, this isn't much of a signal

[Al_U_Card]

Yes, I usually read these stories with a grain of salt. IF the situation was truly dire, then the people would be leaving in droves. A similar situation is occurring among the Pacific islands. Claims of rapidly sinking islands do not coincide with mass emigration. Thus far, it is still status quo.

The following might explain why the Maldives (of scuba-government fame) have opted for a new airport runway and luxury condos...

 

From New Scientist: Kiribati and other coral atolls grow as seas rise...

[kenberg]

You could always hope for THIS (The link describes how one delegate "spent" her downtime at CoP Paris.)

 

"Naturally, the Australian Conservation Foundation "stands for ecological sustainability. We get to the heart of environmental problems by tackling the underlying social and economic causes. We work across society to influence urgent, transformative action to deliver lasting change on the scale required to secure a sustainable environment." And they use your money to do so – along with cash from volunteers, who must be delighted at how much of it has been converted to Moët."

 

A gal's gotta eat, what can I say. More seriously, if a person puts n a good day's work then what s/he does in the evening is his/her own business. There is of course a legitimate question of who is picking up the tab. A while back I went to a conference inn Portland OR. I also spent some very enjoyable time on the Pacific coast.I picked up the cost of my time on the coast, the school picked up the cost of my time at the conference. An honest arrangement I think. No Duck Le Orange in either case, unfortunately.

[y66]

Congress and revenue neutral .. like oil and water?

It may require some emulsification. There is a precedent.

 

According to wikipedia, the word "emulsion" comes from the Latin word for "to milk".

[Daniel1960]

Here's an alternative explanation

 

1. The inhabitants don't have enough money to move

2. There is no place out there willing to take them

 

I'm sure that once the situation gets dire enough, those Australian concentration camps might start looking good...

However, this isn't much of a signal

 

The inhabitants of Miami Beach are some of the wealthiest in this country, and could move wherever they like. If the situation becomes dire enough in any of the Pacific Islands, they will be forced to move. Refugees have always found a place. Just look at Syria today.

[mike777]

The French never thought Germany would invade even though war was declared. They were in denial. Syrians never really left until things got horrible.

 

This may be true when it comes to flooding in South Florida, people will be in denial up to the point the water does not recede.

 

BTW the article did quote one or two people who wanted to go but felt no one would buy their home. But as you point out many are still moving in and the very rich live there for only a few months a year.

[hrothgar]

Refugees have always found a place. Just look at Syria today.

 

The folks in the South Pacific are living on ***** islands you overprivileged ignoramus.

[Daniel1960]

The folks in the South Pacific are living on ***** islands you overprivileged ignoramus.

 

Are 5-star islands top notch? People move off and onto islands all the time. Just who is the ignoramus?

[inquiry]

Topic has been reopened