Climate change

[PassedOut]

Why oh why can people not see that it is "strict governmental control" that causes most problems? :( :(

In all seriousness, most people don't see that because they've seen too much evidence to the contrary. No one believes that governments are perfect (far from it), but other institutions are far from perfect also and sometimes must be reined in.

 

I did not say that "everyone is out of step but me". There's a lot of people who believe as I do.

I would quibble with "a lot," but certainly you aren't alone. Every now and then one reads of an attempt to start a libertarian community to show how well it would work in practice. And yet, if there is a thriving and successful libertarian community, I've not heard of it. An example like that would make folks take notice.

[mike777]

mike777, on 2014-September-13, 03:16, said:

 

"Clearly when I look at the evidence rather than just consensus of expert opinion we have a serious global climate problem."

 

I would tend to agree that weather does cause some serious problems and that, over time, trends can go in different and thus better or worse directions, but that has nothing to do with [CO2] unless you have found some as yet undescribed in the literature correlation?

 

good point, when it comes to co2 concentration I think I posted something by Dyson a year or so ago in this forum.

 

 

At the time the concentration had not reached urgent.

[mike777]

"In all seriousness, most people don't see that because they've seen too much evidence to the contrary. No one believes that governments are perfect (far from it), but other institutions are far from perfect also and sometimes must be reined in."

 

 

Thus the debate.

 

Many feel that govt is the lesser of evils..at least some feel govt is the greater of the evils... \\\

 

 

thus the debate of where the limits of govt are.

 

 

For example some if not many accept that the destructive power of capitalism, the power to destroy the status, is a great evil or downside of capitalism.

 

 

At the very least advocates of capitalism concede it is a crucial element of capitalism. The power to destroy.

 

 

Governments often step in to protect the status for the sake of stability. It stands to inhibit this power to destroy by capitalists

[blackshoe]

Two kinds of power: economic power and political power. Either can create, either can destroy. I think you'll find in most cases where economic power is used to destroy, the user violates a primary part of the golden rule: "an' it harm none, do what thou wilt". They take the second part, and discard the first, bolded, and IMO more important, part. Political power is all about force. Sometimes that works out well, more often not. Though the downside can often be hard to see, particularly early on.

 

A small "capitalist" community has the same problem as any small non-mainstream community - they have to deal, somehow, with the rest of the world.

 

People are lazy - they see something that needs fixing, and instead of getting out there and fixing it, they scream for the gummint to fix it - and oh, by the way, gimme moar welfare while you're at it!

[mike777]

I disagree. The ability and action to destroy is an integral part of capitalism. Without destruction you cannot have capitalism. This has nothing to do with the golden rule or morality or ethics. IT is by definition. Capitalism disrupts companies, jobs and at times an industry. This disruption often results in destruction at some level of the economy. However many do see evil in this action.

 

Now of course governments often also step in to try and stop or at least inhibit this destructive force.

 

There are many examples but one current issue is the debate over net neutrality. A wave of destruction will pass over the internet if net neutrality goes. Thus the fight.

 

Recent past disruptions are many including such things as video rental industry, blockbuster anyone and the usa auto industry.

 

The govt of France is currently doing battle with Netflix, destructive capitalism in action and the push back.

 

Remember when BBO came along and what happened to the then big bridge site?

[blackshoe]

If you're talking about Okbridge, then no, I don't remember - unless you're referring to the fact that BBO now has a bigger market share. That's not destruction, that's consumers making a decision.

 

That an entrepreneur can come up with an idea does not give him any "right" to make money. If he does make money, that doesn't give him any "right" to continue to make money if somebody comes along with a better idea.

[PassedOut]

Back in the real world: Global Oceans Break All-Time Heat Record; World on Pace for Warmest Year Ever

 

The Earth’s oceans have never been this far beyond the bounds of normal.

 

New data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that Earth’s oceans reached a level last month not seen since humans have been keeping comprehensive records. Global ocean temperatures in August 2014 warmed to “the largest departure from average for any month on record” according to a NOAA statement. The previous record was set just two months ago, in June 2014.

Fish can tell the difference too.

[billw55]

The Earth's oceans have never been this far beyond the bounds of normal.

 

New data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that Earth's oceans reached a level last month not seen since humans have been keeping comprehensive records. Global ocean temperatures in August 2014 warmed to "the largest departure from average for any month on record" according to a NOAA statement. The previous record was set just two months ago, in June 2014.

While the data is likely valid, "never" is clearly an exaggeration.

[PassedOut]

While the data is likely valid, "never" is clearly an exaggeration.

Yep, just another example of our severe and prolonged editor drought.

;)

[Al_U_Card]

Were it so unusual or unprecedented, then it would be reasonable to expect that sea ice would be melting apace....as opposed to increasing (Antarctic) and recovering (Arctic).

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.png

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

[mike777]

"The Earth’s oceans have never been this far beyond the bounds of normal.

 

New data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that Earth’s oceans reached a level last month not seen since humans have been keeping comprehensive records. Global ocean temperatures in August 2014 warmed to “the largest departure from average for any month on record” according to a NOAA statement. The previous record was set just two months ago, in June 2014."

 

Unfortunately, precise, comprehensive observations of the oceans are available only for the past few decades; the reliable record is still too short to adequately understand how the ocean will change and how that will affect climate.

[PassedOut]

Scientific American published this today: World May Blow Through Global Warming Pollution Limit in 30 Years

 

Human activities added 1,430 gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere from 1870 to 2013. That's 45 percent of the total carbon budget the world has to maintain a rise in global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius. At this rate of emissions, the world will hit its carbon quota in the next three decades.

Conservatives want to implement a carbon tax to compensate for the externalities and allow the market to adapt. But time is not on our side, and if we don't act soon we may have no choice but to employ Ed's solution of a "government fiat."

[mike777]

Scientific American published this today: World May Blow Through Global Warming Pollution Limit in 30 Years

 

 

Conservatives want to implement a carbon tax to compensate for the externalities and allow the market to adapt. But time is not on our side, and if we don't act soon we may have no choice but to employ Ed's solution of a "government fiat."

 

 

Ya we have discussed a carbon tax here for years and years. The congress and the president seem no closer to even having a vote on it. At this point it may be decades away.

 

I will stick with my prediction that by 2020 the science around solar energy will solved to the point this will help a lot with man made warming issues. In other words the predictions in your article will be incorrect.

[PassedOut]

I will stick with my prediction that by 2020 the science around solar energy will solved to the point this will help a lot with man made warming issues. In other words the predictions in your article will be incorrect.

If you read more carefully, you'll see that the article presents a calculation, not a prediction: On the present trajectory, the milestone of 3,200 gigatons of carbon dioxide will be hit in 30 years. The authors would prefer a downward change in that trajectory.

 

You predict that cheap solar power will push the trajectory downward by 2020, six years from now. We'll see.

 

There are a number of wilderness camping areas in our neck of the woods. Most campers are very careful to leave nothing behind when striking camp. Some, though, leave a bunch of refuse around for others to clean up.

[mike777]

You predict that cheap solar power will push the trajectory downward by 2020, six years from now. We'll see.

 

 

 

yes...

 

Of course I repeated a prediction that in 2030 a computer brain will = a human brain in intelligence measure.

that in 2020 we will map the hardware(not software) of the human brain. /But in 2030 we will map the software of the human brain.

[Aberlour10]

How will London look like in the year 2100?

 

Whats your predict?

 

A) Venice of the North

 

http://www.london-futures.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/London-Futures-Aerial-Flood2.jpg

 

 

or

 

B)

 

http://www.london-futures.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Camel-Guards-Parade-DMJ-RG-Post.jpg

 

 

C ) So common like nowdays ;-)

 

:rolleyes:

[Daniel1960]

Very Nice. I choose C.

[Al_U_Card]

 

I will stick with my prediction that by 2020 the science around solar energy will solved to the point this will help a lot with man made warming issues. In other words the predictions in your article will be incorrect.

 

They better giddy-up then, as the EROI appears to be way below what is actually needed to contribute effectively to our society's energy budget (to say nothing of future requirements to heat homes during the cold, cold winters to come...)

 

Just how well does solar comply with real energy needs?

 

http://bravenewclimate.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/morganesfig1.jpg?w=440&h=342

[Al_U_Card]

How will London look like in the year 2100?

 

Whats your predict?

 

A) Venice of the North

 

http://www.london-futures.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/London-Futures-Aerial-Flood2.jpg

 

 

or

 

B)

 

http://www.london-futures.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Camel-Guards-Parade-DMJ-RG-Post.jpg

 

 

C ) So common like nowdays ;-)

 

or D) like it was in the fairly recent past (unlike either of the above pics)

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/84/16_The_Frost_Fair.JPG

 

 

[Lovera]

Actually is developing in Bari (Italy) a congress about climate change (22-25/9/14) in University of Bari where i work: this is the site http://www.els2014.eu/, thanks bye.

[Lovera]

In the hall of Old Central Post Office Building was presented also the "Isotope Ratio Infrared Spectrometer" by Thermo Scientific Delta Ray ( http://www.thermoscientific.com/en/product/delta-ray-isotope-ratio-infrared-spectrometer-iris.html?ca=deltaray ) . Ref. : adress Thermo Fisher Scientific , Strada Rivoltana Km.4, Rodano (Italia) C.A.P. 20090 Luca Simonotti (luca.simonotti@thermofisher.com Tel. phone number : +39 02 95059 1 fax +39 0295059256 mobile +39 3737444182 (my little contribution : let' save the habitat we live on).

[Daniel1960]

"The Earth’s oceans have never been this far beyond the bounds of normal.

 

New data released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that Earth’s oceans reached a level last month not seen since humans have been keeping comprehensive records. Global ocean temperatures in August 2014 warmed to “the largest departure from average for any month on record” according to a NOAA statement. The previous record was set just two months ago, in June 2014."

 

Unfortunately, precise, comprehensive observations of the oceans are available only for the past few decades; the reliable record is still too short to adequately understand how the ocean will change and how that will affect climate.

 

It seems that the "missing heat" may not be stored in the deep oceans after all.

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/nasa-study-finds-earth-s-ocean-abyss-has-not-warmed/#.VDKvvPm2jp1

[PassedOut]

It seems that the "missing heat" may not be stored in the deep oceans after all.

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/nasa-study-finds-earth-s-ocean-abyss-has-not-warmed/#.VDKvvPm2jp1

From your link:

 

Coauthor Felix Landerer of JPL noted that during the same period warming in the top half of the ocean continued unabated, an unequivocal sign that our planet is heating up. Some recent studies reporting deep-ocean warming were, in fact, referring to the warming in the upper half of the ocean but below the topmost layer, which ends about 0.4 mile (700 meters) down.

 

Landerer also is a coauthor of another paper in the same journal issue on 1970-2005 ocean warming in the Southern Hemisphere. Before Argo floats were deployed, temperature measurements in the Southern Ocean were spotty, at best. Using satellite measurements and climate simulations of sea level changes around the world, the new study found the global ocean absorbed far more heat in those 35 years than previously thought -- a whopping 24 to 58 percent more than early estimates.

B-)

[Al_U_Card]

"Using satellite measurements and climate simulations of sea level changes around the world..."

 

Serial data molesters. They don't find the "missing" heat in the upper ocean so they say it is hiding in the deep ocean. When that doesn't pan out, re-analyse the data, add some computer model sims of SLR to proxy heat content....whaaaa?....and then declare the missing heat found!

 

So many climate research grant applications to fill, so little time...

[PassedOut]

Scientific American weighed in today: Mystery of Ocean Heat Deepens as Climate Changes

 

By 2004, they had launched Argo ("swift" in Greek), a network of 3,000 floating devices spread out throughout the world. The devices record the temperatures down to 6,500 feet, where only the deepest divers, like sperm whales and great white sharks, visit.

 

Scientists are decoding the oceans using these instruments. The oceans are major players in the climate system, absorbing about 90 percent of the heat of global warming. To understand global warming, scientists must first understand the oceans.

 

"When we think about global warming, what we should really thinking about, to be honest, is ocean warming," said Paul Durack, a climate modeler at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL).

 

Improved data about the oceans from the Argo floats caused a splash this week as two studies in Nature Climate Change challenged conventional thinking.

 

Durack and his colleagues at LLNL found that the Southern Hemisphere's oceans have warmed at a higher rate over the past 35 years than previously thought.

 

If that is true, the repercussions would be huge. It would mean that scientists have missed accounting for a portion of the heat resulting from human emissions. Scientists have calculated that a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations would warm the planet by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius. Durack's results would place the planet's sensitivity to CO2 toward the higher end of this range.

 

A second study, also published in Nature Climate Change, found that the deepest parts of the ocean, beyond 6,500 feet, have not warmed by very much in the past decade. Much of global warming's impacts are playing out closest to the surface, said Joshua Willis, a scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and co-author of the study.

No serious person doubts that putting billions of tons of heat-trapping gasses into the atmosphere each year will cause more heat to be trapped. Scientists are getting a handle on where that trapped heat is being stored.