Climate change

[phil_20686]

All this graph shows is that in the last 600 million years, CO2 is not the only driver of climate change.

 

Over the order of hundreds of millions of years both solar changes and orbital changes are significant. Not to mention the emergence of life as a CO2 sinks, the mass extinctions, asteroud strikes etc etc etc. Such minor details as the emergence of plant life 450mya caused massive changes in the earths climate. They dropped CO2 levels, but probably also increased the temperature by changing the reflectivity, and changing the humidity of the atmosphere. You cannot just plot CO2 temeraptures vs temperature while ignoring minor things like the evolution of life.

 

Despite that: Your graph shows the biggest change as 5000ppm over 50,000,000 years, which is about 0.0001 ppm, per year. This is the level of change expected from orbital and solar forcing. The current change is O(10ppm) per year. The most rapid change on your graph is 6 degrees over fifty million years. we are looking at O(0.1) degree per decade. That is to say the climate is currently changing about one million times faster than at any time in the geological record. In what way is that evidence against anthropogenic climate change?

[Al_U_Card]

As with your statements concerning other factors than [CO2], it is just an example of the scope of the issue.

 

Of concern here is, as you say, anthropogenic climate change, of which there is some, urban heat island effect being one. Sulfate aerosols and CO2 production are much more questionable, less easily shown and harder to predict. The problem lies with the magnitude of the effect as well as the reliance on models to quantify and project, based on their current abilities.

 

What is so great about our current global temperature? It is certainly warmer than the little ice age and certainly cooler than the medieval warm period or the Roman warm period or the Holocene optimum and so on. Cold and dryer climates are bad for human civilizations. Warm and wetter are generally better. (Even if we only have a 5,000 year window of experience.)

 

Clouds are an issue for the models. They don't do clouds....so solar changes that impact cosmic ray flux that affect cloud nucleation are important. That we don't know is an admission that should spur further research as well as preparation. That we don't know is not a reason to scream "The sky is falling!" and give all our taxes to attempting to control (poorly) something that can only be shown to have a very minor role in climate change.

 

I don't often agree with politicians, but this time they appear to have made the correct decision, for the time being.

[hrothgar]

All this graph shows is that in the last 600 million years, CO2 is not the only driver of climate change.

 

Over the order of hundreds of millions of years both solar changes and orbital changes are significant. Not to mention the emergence of life as a CO2 sinks, the mass extinctions, asteroud strikes etc etc etc. Such minor details as the emergence of plant life 450mya caused massive changes in the earths climate. They dropped CO2 levels, but probably also increased the temperature by changing the reflectivity, and changing the humidity of the atmosphere. You cannot just plot CO2 temeraptures vs temperature while ignoring minor things like the evolution of life.

 

Despite that: Your graph shows the biggest change as 5000ppm over 50,000,000 years, which is about 0.0001 ppm, per year. This is the level of change expected from orbital and solar forcing. The current change is O(10ppm) per year. The most rapid change on your graph is 6 degrees over fifty million years. we are looking at O(0.1) degree per decade. That is to say the climate is currently changing about one million times faster than at any time in the geological record. In what way is that evidence against anthropogenic climate change?

 

Hi Phil

 

Al_U_Card is a troll (probably a paid one given his persistence)

 

His only contribution to this site is an endless series of global warming rants...

Prior to jumping on the global warming band wagon, he was peddling 911 conspiracy theories.

 

It's impossible to conduct any kind of rational discussion with him. He will simple shift the topic around [global warming is GOOD. CO2 causes trees to grow!] or disappear for a couple weeks before posting the same discredited crap.

 

The best option would be to ban his sorry ass for posting commercial posts.

Absent this, its probably best to ignore the *****tard and think wistfully back to the good old days when idiots like him were isolated on AOL.

[Al_U_Card]

The ICO has ruled that UEA must release the CRUTEM data that they have tried to keep under wraps for the last 3 years.

 

While the UEA is able to appeal the ruling, the ICO is pretty definite in its reasons and reasoning.

 

The truth will out...eventually

[phil_20686]

The ICO has ruled that UEA must release the CRUTEM data that they have tried to keep under wraps for the last 3 years.

 

While the UEA is able to appeal the ruling, the ICO is pretty definite in its reasons and reasoning.

 

The truth will out...eventually

 

CERN used to release its data, but then they stopped, mostly because lots of theoretical physcists were doing terrible statistical analysis that introduced all kinds of bias and produced "results" that weren't really there. If the (pretty elite imo) field of theoretical physicists cannot as a rule to sensible algorithmic searches on vast reams of data, the chance that non speicialists are going to be able to do the same to climate data is essentially zero.

[Al_U_Card]

The problem is more one of "show your work" than it is of what is done with the data. From the "Team's" (mis)use of Bristlecone pines to the insertion of inverted Tiljander proxies, once the errors were spotted and corrections requested (that essentially invalidated the initial conclusions of the research) the desire to share became not only non-existent, efforts were made to impede access. As Phil Jones infamously stated after sharing his data with Steve McIntyre and being schooled on statistical methods: "Why should I share my work with you when your only intention is to find something wrong with it?"

 

Complete disclosure of data and methods, so that replication and further elucidation can be achieved, is a fundamental part of the scientific method. This is a legal requirement where public funds are used. Questions and questioning are good. Agenda and dogma are for other fields of endeavor.

[phil_20686]

The problem is more one of "show your work" than it is of what is done with the data. From the "Team's" (mis)use of Bristlecone pines to the insertion of inverted Tiljander proxies, once the errors were spotted and corrections requested (that essentially invalidated the initial conclusions of the research) the desire to share became not only non-existent, efforts were made to impede access. As Phil Jones infamously stated after sharing his data with Steve McIntyre and being schooled on statistical methods: "Why should I share my work with you when your only intention is to find something wrong with it?"

 

Complete disclosure of data and methods, so that replication and further elucidation can be achieved, is a fundamental part of the scientific method. This is a legal requirement where public funds are used. Questions and questioning are good. Agenda and dogma are for other fields of endeavor.

 

The statistical failings in mann's work was minor, and has not significantly altered the results. At least 5 teams have repeated mann's analysis and all of them have found similar results.

 

More than twelve subsequent scientific papers, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, produced reconstructions broadly similar to the original MBH hockey-stick graph, with variations in how flat the pre-20th century "shaft" appears. Almost all of them supported the IPCC conclusion that the warmest decade in 1000 years was probably that at the end of the 20th century.[6]

[Al_U_Card]

The key to the exercise is that there is a dispute in academia regarding methods AND results. Continued use of Mannian PC methods leads to papers like Steig et al which showed Antarctic warming where there was none (smearing of one warm weather station over an entire continent) Climate changes and cycles and phases (including glaciation) come and go. The issue, initially, was UNPRECEDENTED rising global temperatures and a direct, seemingly causal relationship with [CO2].

 

It continues to be the case that model results are the source of the speculation about the causal nature of [CO2] regarding global temperatures. Actual temperatures are not following [CO2] and that appears to be, in part, due to the climate sensitivity that the models assign to [CO2]. All of the activity in this area is a good thing for scientific knowledge concerning global climate change and any relationship that it might have with any number of "forcings".

 

Good science is not about a consensus regarding an agenda (policy, maybe...) but it is all about finding out about what is really going on.

[luke warm]

Good science is not about a consensus regarding an agenda (policy, maybe...) but it is all about finding out about what is really going on.

i think pretty much everyone would agree with that... the only ones who wouldn't are those who actually have an agenda

[blackshoe]

I had an agenda, but the meeting's over, so I threw it away.

[Al_U_Card]

I had an agenda, but the meeting's over, so I threw it away.

 

So did they (the CAGW crowd) but their "consensus" is over and the agenda is going to be thrown away. :D

[Al_U_Card]

This was on the powerpoint presentation from that meeting....

http://i.min.us/idFxzI.jpg

 

 

no wonder the meeting was cancelled! :P

 

p.s. note that the envisat plot for the last 8 years is almost flat.

 

p.p.s. Senator Wirth is certainly convinced :blink:

[phil_20686]

You have produced a graph saying that sea levels are rising since the industrial revolution when CO2 started rising in a big way. Now we have pretty good data going back thousands of years from sediments, and that shows that sea levels were essentially flat for that last two thousand years - se the graph on teh other page. So, even though sea levels were flat, and have only been rising since the industrial revolution started a lot of coal burning, the fact that new satellite measurements make the recent rise even more than previously thought somehow you think that this is evidence against AGW?

 

You makes no sense. I would imagine that the reason they used the satellite data is because it is much more reliable than tidal guage measurements. Can you imagine how difficult it is to make measurements of the order of mm/y when the daily variation due to the tides is of the average of 6 meteres, with variations of 1-2 meters common due to variations of atmospheric pressure. The satellites can measure the sea level way out to sea where tidal movements are less severe.

[Al_U_Card]

Yet this is exactly what Mann and his cronies have come up with for their latest hockey-stick effort. They used NC tidal records to show significant rise in sea-levels in the last 50 years! There is an interesting critique of the paper at in case you missed it

 

In my lifetime (nearly 60 years) sea-level in the Montreal area hasn't budged but then again, changes on the mm/yr scale not easily remarkable. Thankfully, more accurate measurements are available that we can rely on, as long as they are interpreted accurately.

[Cyberyeti]

I wonder if Phil Jones is reading this, he's a bridge player at my local club :)

[hrothgar]

Yet this is exactly what Mann and his cronies have come up with for their latest hockey-stick effort. They used NC tidal records to show significant rise in sea-levels in the last 50 years! There is an interesting critique of the paper at in case you missed it

 

In my lifetime (nearly 60 years) sea-level in the Montreal area hasn't budged but then again, changes on the mm/yr scale not easily remarkable. Thankfully, more accurate measurements are available that we can rely on, as long as they are interpreted accurately.

 

I would once again like to point out that it has been years since Al has done anything but spam the message board with Global Warming commercials.

 

I hope that we wouldn't put up with random individuals joining the site and spamming us with Viagra ads and offers for discount tee shirts.

I don't understand why we let this troll do the same thing...

 

Al is not a real member of this forum or this community.

Why are we forced to deal with this constant annoyance?

[Winstonm]

I have yet to see anyone who dismisses AGW present an explanation of the known facts. All I see are a bunch of Notters: It NOT this, it's NOT that. One can not define what something is by explaining what it is not.

 

There seem to be three concrete facts: 1) CO2 levels have risen dramtically since the start of the Industrial Revolution 2) CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and 3)average global temperatures are trending higher.

 

To believe the Notters, one has to assume that there is not even a correlation among the three areas of substantiated data, much less a causation. If there is no correlation or causation, then there must be a mechanism at work that is explainable as a theory.

 

I have yet to see a single Notter present a cohesive explanation of the mechanism that is responsible for producing this data.

[Al_U_Card]

From my perspective, I have no trouble with any of your three observations. How they relate and inter-relate is a concern as the supposition that [CO2] is the main driver of climate (according to CAGW alarmists and the climate models that they use to project doom based on that premise) is very much up for debate. There are lots of cogent explanations for global temperature forcings (amongst which [CO2] appears to be minor but present) that are backed up by lots of actual data and not just model runs. Were [CO2] to be the magical misery tour it is claimed to be by those that want to tax us into poverty then it would be causing ever-increasing effects of disastrous proportions. This is exactly the meme that is offered up to scare dissent and opposition away.

 

You are in Oklahoma. Models predict terrible consequences in terms of drought for rising [CO2] and the warming that it is most assuredly bringing. Since that concentration has increased greatly over the last century or so, perhaps it must surely be reflected in precipitation statistics? Here is an an example for your current ([CO2]-induced no doubt) drought.

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/screenhunter_127-jul-02-01-02.gif

 

Seems to be less than conclusive, as far as a significantly ever-increasing trend goes.

 

There are lots of CAGW skeptics in the climate field looking for answers. They are there to be found if you look.

[Winstonm]

Local variations cannot be a proxy for global events. Again, where is the non-AGW theory that explains global temperature developments?

[hotShot]

I'm really impressed Al, how you manage to avoid the point and create a diversion.

 

If the world is getting warmer, from the large surfaces of the oceans more water will evaporate.

So there is more water in the air that can rain down.

This and the temperature will change the locations where the rain will occur.

So you expect regions where there will be more rain and others where there is less rain.

[blackshoe]

The primary component of "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere is water vapor. CO₂ is second. It's also interesting that the three primary sources of anthropogenic atmospheric CO₂ are the burning, respectively of petroleum, coal, and natural gas. This seems to me a pretty good argument for alternative sources of power. Of those, solar, wind, and geothermal are, it seems to me, insufficient to meet the needs of the world. Nuclear power would be sufficient, but nuclear power has become the energy industry's "Reefer Madness", a boogie man whose dangers are trumpeted every time there's the slightest excuse. I'm not, btw, saying that what happened at Fukushima, or Chernobyl for that matter, is no big deal. I'm saying that increased use of nuclear power would reduce anthropogenic production of CO₂, and that as I recall it (M.S. in Nuclear Engineering, 1975) an objective assessment of the relative risks comes down pretty firmly in the nuclear power camp. Maybe things have changed since 1975. No, certainly they have — modern plant designs are safer than the thirty to forty year old plants we currently have. So why can't we approach this rationally? Is it, as my coal mining engineer uncle suggested to me back in 1974, that the existing energy industry wants to maintain the status quo, and not see any radical change to new sources?

[helene_t]

Is it, as my coal mining engineer uncle suggested to me back in 1974, that the existing energy industry wants to maintain the status quo, and not see any radical change to new sources?

This may be the case but I think the main reason is the lobbying of organizations like Greenpeace which (afaik) are not sponsored by big oil.

 

Some 25 years ago lots of people were afraid of computers. A similar technofobia was directed towards railways in the early 19th century. But computers and railways are things that ordinary people benefit from directly. The benefit from nuclear power, and genetically modified organisms, is more indirect.

 

Add to this the association between nuclear power and nuclear weapons.

[PassedOut]

I'm saying that increased use of nuclear power would reduce anthropogenic production of CO₂, and that as I recall it (M.S. in Nuclear Engineering, 1975) an objective assessment of the relative risks comes down pretty firmly in the nuclear power camp.

Makes sense to me. Yes there are risks, but the risks associated with nuclear power are (potentially at least) manageable. The risks associated with climate change are not.

[Winstonm]

There are lots of CAGW skeptics in the climate field looking for answers. They are there to be found if you look

 

I hear a similar claim all the time from those who want ID/Creationism taught in classrooms, that there are more and more scientists who reject evolution and accept ID. When pressed, though, they offer no valid details - just a bunch of old Discovery Institute websites long ago debunked as biased.

 

I have yet to see anyone propose a non-AGW explanation for events that thus far are matching as well as can be determined the forecasted models. The models forecast 7 increases (troposphere warming and various other warmings) and 3 decreases (sea ice, glaciers, snow cover) on a global scale. Any non-AGW theory would have to contain an explanation for all 10, not just question the reliability of the interpretations of a cherry-picked data set or two.

[blackshoe]

I hear a similar claim all the time from those who want ID/Creationism taught in classrooms, that there are more and more scientists who reject evolution and accept ID. When pressed, though, they offer no valid details - just a bunch of old Discovery Institute websites long ago debunked as biased.

 

Heh. On the old Jerry Pournelle forum on GEnie (which later moved to Bix and may still be around somewhere for all I know) people used to say "PPOR" when people made assertions like this. It stands for "provide proof or retract". Maybe we should start using it whenever and wherever we see such assertions. B-)