inquiry Posted November 10, 2010 Report Share Posted November 10, 2010 [hv=pc=n&s=s7532haj72d9ckj84&n=sakq64ht3dakq73ct]133|200|Board 9, Dealer North, Vul E-W E-W do not bid. Two pairs in 6STwo pairs in 4S[/hv] [hv=pc=n&s=sak952hq6da3ckqj2&n=sqt83ha97dt6ca985]133|200|Board 10, Dealer East, Vul Both E-W do not bid. Two in 4SOne in 6SOne is 7S[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted November 10, 2010 Report Share Posted November 10, 2010 The first slam is very difficult to estimate. Slam is quite decent on a non-heart lead. On a heart lead, you can hope for trumps 2-2 and diamonds 4-3, but perhaps better is to run the heart, hoping that the opponents don't find the club shift (Justin suggested this when rogerclee was bidding the hands, I thought I needed to practice serving but I ended up not serving any of the contestants). This is a terribly difficult hand to score, I'd say something like 4S = 9, 6S = 7. On the second hand 6S is great on a heart lead, pretty much without hope on a diamond lead and close to 50% on any other lead. Missing KQJ of diamonds I'd say a diamond lead is about 70% likely, a heart lead is 15% and any other lead 10%. So I'd give 6S about 20% chance to make. 7S gets 0 matchpoints, 6S gets 1.4 mathpoints and 4S gets 2.3 matchpoints. This is on a 3MP top, so rescaling to a 12 point top gives us 7S = 06S = 5 or 6 (5.6)4S = 9 (9.2) I'd go with 0, 5 and 9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted November 18, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2010 [hv=pc=n&s=s7532haj72d9ckj84&n=sakq64ht3dakq73ct]133|200|Board 9, Dealer North, Vul E-W E-W do not bid. One pairs in 6SThree pairs in 4S[/hv] While Han has a point about a non-heart lead, 4♠ is better than slam. I agree with han's rating for 4♠ (a 9), but I think the 6♠ score he suggest is too high. I rated 6♠ as 4. With this scoring, TylerE-bidemup stretch their lead. [hv=pc=n&s=sak952hq6da3ckqj2&n=sqt83ha97dt6ca985]133|200|Board 10, Dealer East, Vul Both E-W do not bid. Two in 4SOne in 6SOne is 7S[/hv] This is a hand where I thought the best slamwas clubs. But a the pairs -- perhaps pushed by matchpoints -- all stayed in spades. However, the best contract is Notrump (it makes 5NT easy enough). If we agree that 3NT is the best spot (a 10 I think), and that from among slams, 6♣ is the highest scoring (I have it at an 8 point). We will start with 7♠, clearly it is not making, and should get a poor score. 4♠ is a very safe contract, and will make, with an overtrick (unless someone ruffs a club at trick one). The question is, how will 6♠ do? It can make, but only rarely, needing a non-♦ at trick one and the ♥King with EAST. If we eliminate a black suit lead, it is at best 25% to make. So we can rate this as a 3. Of course, 7♠ has no chance, and I rate that as 0. 5N = 106C = 84S = 66S = 37S = 0 On this hand two pairs moved closer to TylerE-bidemup, but the TylerE pair is still ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TylerE Posted November 18, 2010 Report Share Posted November 18, 2010 Seems rather harsh to rate 4S so low when for most pairs unbiddable (e.g. 5N is always SOMETHING) is the only one to score well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
han Posted November 18, 2010 Report Share Posted November 18, 2010 Tyler 5NT = 10 means 3NT and 4NT also get 10. This is Standard American. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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