What is the best line?

[twcho]

[hv=pc=n&w=skjthaqt63dkqt98c&e=sa87432h7da7cqj52]266|100[/hv]

The auction is not mentionable but the final contract is fair. You reach 6♠ by east without intervention and opponent leds ♥2 (third or lowest lead). What is your plan?

[Fluffy]

need spades 2-2 or diamonds 3-3 (or jack falling) and barring that I need a 12th trick somewhere... why no tin hearts?

 

I put ♥Q, then ruff a diamond on hand whenever it wins or loses.

[Free]

♥Q. We still have plenty of chances if it loses, but if it wins we have a very easy ride home.

[ckane]

I'll give it a shot.

 

Say you play the A♥. You need to discard 4 clubs playing for one loser. Cash 2 top spades and play diamonds from the top, throwing clubs. If either spades are 2-2 or the jack falls, you have twelve tricks. When opponents ruff in or win their J♦, they've taken their first and last trick. Ruff a club to board and the other three are thrown on diamonds. 2-2 spades are 48%, and dropping the J is 61%, giving an 80% chance to make.

 

Say you try the Q♥. If this wins, you're home free, but if it fails... you've lost your one loser so you absolutely need spades to be 2-2. Assuming the finesse is 50%, you have strictly less than a 74% chance to make, no matter your chances of setting up diamonds.

 

Unless I'm wrong, there's no reason to risk losing a heart. You have 12 tricks on 80% of layouts.