Fluffy Posted October 26, 2010 Report Share Posted October 26, 2010 [hv=pc=n&s=skqj73hqt42d6ct52&n=sa954hk98daqj4c73&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1dp1sp4sppp]266|200[/hv]Match points if it matters. Partnering gozzilla you become declarer in 4♠, LHO leads ♦10, what's your plan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfa1010 Posted October 26, 2010 Report Share Posted October 26, 2010 Hmm, seems my plan is to find east with the ♥J, since that would end all my worries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucky Posted October 27, 2010 Report Share Posted October 27, 2010 Instead of guessing the heart situation (for some reason, my success rate in guessing 2-way finesse is always below 50%), I'd rather bet on RHO holding ♦K. My plan is to eliminate diamonds and force opponents to play heart for me. And I'd better be right. The only reason partner bids this way (TWO levels higher than the normal call) is his (blind) trust in my declaring ability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigel_k Posted October 27, 2010 Report Share Posted October 27, 2010 A more charitable person would regard North's bidding as a sign of great faith in partner's declarer play. But I'd rather say that if North plays like he bids then it is just as well he is dummy. Eliminating diamonds and exiting with a club (having discarded one) requires trumps 2-2 since you need to ruff two diamonds and still retain a trump for the endplay. Obviously you can change plan if trumps don't break and still try to find the ♥J but the elimination requires diamonds to be played at trick two so you'll be down whenever the ♦K is on the left which is certainly possible. Call this line A and line B is just guessing the location of the ♥J. Let's disregard 4-0 trump breaks because they might have bid and it makes the analysis easier. Also assume you will find the ♥J exactly half the time. If p is the probability that the ♦K is on your right then line A is about 13p/18 because you make on all the 2-2 breaks and half the 3-1 breaks. Line B is 0.5. So you should choose line A if you think p > 0.69. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted October 27, 2010 Report Share Posted October 27, 2010 [hv=pc=n&s=skqj73hqt42d6ct52&n=sa954hk98daqj4c73&d=n&v=b&b=13&a=1dp1sp4sppp]266|200[/hv]Match points if it matters. Partnering gozzilla you become declarer in 4♠, LHO leads ♦10, what's your plan?to find a new partner ASAP? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted October 28, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2010 No matter if you plan not to ride it, you should start with ♦Q at trick 2, if its covered, your troubles are over if spades break, if RHO fails to cover its guessing time. LHO had ♠10x♥AJx♦109x♣KJxxx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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