how do you defend, and why?

[mikeh]

[hv=pc=n&s=sj972hq42dk52ckqj&e=sak53hakdaqj6ct98&d=s&v=0&b=11&a=1cppdp1hp2cp2hp3cp3nppp]266|200|Playing against strong opps (who go on to reach the round of 16 at the recent wc) you see partner lead the club 3, playing 4th best, and declarer ducks with the 4. Your defence, and why? Hint: the object here is to beat the contract, and not to worry about overtricks. Second hint: why would declarer falsecard in clubs? You can assume that he doesn't hold Ax[/hv]

 

edit: a/e pls hide your answers

[Cascade]

Whoops sorry didn't notice the forum.

 

[hidden]♠2[/hidden]

 

Hey this hidden text thing is cute.

[quiddity]

Why can we assume declarer doesn't have Ax? Is it because we expect partner to always make a preemptive raise with 5 clubs?

 

One possibility is that declarer has four clubs to the ace and the ♦T. In that case he can eventually take 2 clubs, 3 diamonds, 2 hearts and 2 spades, unless we can set up 5 tricks for ourselves first. We might do that by switching to a low spade and continuing spades (possibly the jack) when we get in with the second club.

 

Another possibility is that he has 3 clubs to the ace and the ♠Q. In that case if we switch to spades he might be able to win in dummy, unblock hearts, and use his two hand entries to establish and cash heart tricks.

 

I guess it's better to cater for the first possibility since in that case our 5 tricks are more certain. In the second case, even though declarer has only 8 tricks on top without the hearts, it's quite possible we'll be endplayed into giving him the ninth anyway.

[billw55]

Looks like a hand for passive defense. Decarer either has 9 tricks or he doesn't. I must avoid giving him extras for free. In particular I must prevent him winning long hearts. He needs two entries to his hand after cashing the AK - one to clear the suit and a second to reach winners.

 

He appears to have the ♣A. The ♠Q or ♦T would also work. So I see no reason not to continue clubs, it is safe and removes an entry to declarer's hand.

 

Am I missing something?

 

 

edit:

 

[hidden]hmm, I suppose on the right lie of spades I should switch to one. Maybe that is better ... I can't really tell.[/hidden]

[mtvesuvius]

For Bill:

 

The reason that we cannot play a passive defense is that when declarer started with Axxx♣, he will duck the 2nd round of clubs, winning the 3rd round, and take 2S 2H 3D and 2C. The solution is to play a low spade now, since declarer cannot set up his 9th trick (a long club) in time. If we can assume declarer does not have 4 Clubs, then the clubs are blocked -- Switching to a spade still seems like the winning defense. My biggest concern is if I switch to a spade, and declarer wins in dummy and plays the ♦Q. We are still fine though, winning the King and playing another spade. Regardless of declarer's shape, I think this is the correct defense.

 

[wyman]

 

:club:Q from me; I'll give suit preference and force declarer's :club:A. He always can score 2 clubs with Axxx, so I'm not preventing that by switching. Let's kill his entry before he can establish hearts. Now even if he has an outside entry to the hearts, he has to eat it to draw the HQ.

 

 

edit:

 

 

Hmm, maybe a spade is right after all. If declarer has an extra card to get to the hearts anyway, he's got 9 tricks. Ok, ok, low spade has to be the winner. WD guys. Back to B&I for me... :(

 

 

[billw55]

 

:club:Q from me; I'll give suit preference and force declarer's :club:A. He always can score 2 clubs with Axxx, so I'm not preventing that by switching. Let's kill his entry before he can establish hearts. Now even if he has an outside entry to the hearts, he has to eat it to draw the HQ.

 

 

edit:

 

 

Hmm, maybe a spade is right after all. If declarer has an extra card to get to the hearts anyway, he's got 9 tricks. Ok, ok, low spade has to be the winner. WD guys. Back to B&I for me... :(

 

 

 

Well, if declarer has the ♠Q, he doesn't necessarily have 9 tricks. Partner could hold a fourth round diamond stopper, in which case declarer has only 3 spades, 2 hearts, 2 diamonds, and 1 club. In which case, we must continue clubs to prevent declarer accessing long hearts.

 

But that seems less likely, so I guess the spade switch is right.

 

 

[mikeh]

The spade returners have it right.

 

ATT, nothing mattered since partner held 109xx in diamonds and Q8x in spades. But the way to look at it is:

 

if declarer has Axxx in clubs, he can score 2 club tricks merely by ducking once more. If he has the spade Q, then he has 9 winners and there is nothing you can do....even switching to hearts merely establishs a 4th trick for you (2 clubs, 1 diamond and 1 heart) since declarer will happily concede a diamond.

 

If he lacks the spade Q, then the danger is that he may be able to score 3 diamond tricks.....if he holds, for example, as little as 10x or xxx. 3 diamonds along with the major AK's and 2 clubs is game.

 

So you need to establish 5 tricks, and 2 of them have to be in spades. You cannot afford to waste time....if you continue a club, intending to switch next time, you are a trick behind.....he wins the spade, crosses in clubs, cashes a club and hooks a diamond....and your spades are not yet established.

 

Concern that he can establish the hearts is misguided......he can't have a second entry to the heart suit, unless he holds the spade Q or the diamond 10, and in either of those cases, he has 9 winners (if given time) without the aid of a long heart.

 

I thought it was a useful hand to show because the solution is (I think) clear once you take a few minutes to assess your goals and how the future play might go. You need to tentatively place cards and assess how the play will go on various assumptions, and then choose the line that offers the best chance of success.

[billw55]

Concern that he can establish the hearts is misguided......he can't have a second entry to the heart suit, unless he holds the spade Q or the diamond 10, and in either of those cases, he has 9 winners (if given time) without the aid of a long heart.

That's not necessarily the case - see my last hidden comment above. But overall I agree the spade is more likely to be right.

[quiddity]

Mike, why are you so sure that declarer has 4 clubs? Why can't he be 3523 with the spade queen and club ace? And if he has that, I see only 8 obvious tricks on a club continuation unless he has something in diamonds or can endplay us.

[mikeh]

Firstly, at the table, I inferred that he held 4 clubs because he falsecarded in clubs. That isn't the strongest of inferences...the 4 and the 2 were equivalent, but generally speaking good declarers routinely falsecard when they want you to continue the suit, and I was playing against a good declarer....one can get into near-infinite regressions here and I don't expect to convince anyone that my interpretation was a sure thing (nor did I think it it was, but I can say that I was morally sure, at the table, that he held Axxx) (Of course, many falsecards are intended to persuade one to switch, but this didn't look like such a situation)

 

Secondly, if he has 3=5=2=3, a spade switch (usually) still works if partner has the Q or the 10, and if declarer holds Q10 or Q10x in spades, he will almost surely go right in the suit, given that I opened this foot. He rates to hold the heart J....by a margin of 5-3...and dummy has 21 hcp....if he holds spade Q and heart J, he knows that I have at best a truly hideous 4=3=3=3/4=4=2=3/3=4=3=3 12 count with zero Aces, so he'll play me for the spade J.

 

What it comes down to is the frequency with which any play other than a spade gains (or loses), and I think the odds are overwhelmingly high that a spade rarely, if ever, loses, and is often critical. A club continuation, otoh, never gains in its own right, and often loses.

[billw55]

Firstly, at the table, I inferred that he held 4 clubs because he falsecarded in clubs. That isn't the strongest of inferences...the 4 and the 2 were equivalent, but generally speaking good declarers routinely falsecard when they want you to continue the suit, and I was playing against a good declarer....one can get into near-infinite regressions here and I don't expect to convince anyone that my interpretation was a sure thing (nor did I think it it was, but I can say that I was morally sure, at the table, that he held Axxx) (Of course, many falsecards are intended to persuade one to switch, but this didn't look like such a situation)

As declarer, I more or less randomly falsecard or not in such a situation. It costs me zero mental energy, and who knows what strange inferences defenders may make? Or what else they may overlook while thinking about it?

 

Secondly, if he has 3=5=2=3, a spade switch (usually) still works if partner has the Q or the 10, and if declarer holds Q10 or Q10x in spades, he will almost surely go right in the suit, given that I opened this foot. He rates to hold the heart J....by a margin of 5-3...and dummy has 21 hcp....if he holds spade Q and heart J, he knows that I have at best a truly hideous 4=3=3=3/4=4=2=3/3=4=3=3 12 count with zero Aces, so he'll play me for the spade J.

How does partner holding the ten help?

 

What it comes down to is the frequency with which any play other than a spade gains (or loses), and I think the odds are overwhelmingly high that a spade rarely, if ever, loses, and is often critical. A club continuation, otoh, never gains in its own right, and often loses.

Agree about the frequency. Basically there is a pretty specific realistic hand type for declarer that requires a club continuation, but many other possible hands require the spade.