Find a lead

[Cyberyeti]

[hv=d=n&v=e&s=saq85hqj642d6cj53]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Partner opens 1♦ in the context of a weak no trump system where this would show 5 unless any 4441 with diamonds if <15 points.

 

RHO overcalls 1N 15-17 and you double ending the auction.

 

What do you lead and why ?

[655321]

♥4

[gwnn]

agree with the prisoner ID number

[Fluffy]

agree with the no named guys

[Cyberyeti]

Results from the harsh jury of what would have happened at table:

 

4♥ -180

Q♥ +200

5♠ +500

6♦ +500

3♣ -180

 

The heart position is 10x on the table, AKxx in hand, with A10xx opposite K9xx of clubs, partner has a 1 loser 6 card diamond suit and the K109 of spades, Qx clubs.

 

My partner led the 4♥ which I think is just wrong. If you're going to lead hearts, with the AQ of spades probably well placed, I think you should lead the Q. You have enough to expect that you're defeating this, and what you can't risk is giving away a trick and a tempo.

[cherdanno]

♥4 seems very normal.

[pooltuna]

♥4

for me this seems like a pretty clear choice. As it a) does not blow the suit straight away and b.) really works well when partner holds A, K or T for a hefty min of 70%

 

EDIT after seeing the OPs additional post: Oh I see! I didn't know we were supposed to pillory your partner for what looks like the %age lead to me :wacko:

 

 

RESULTER ALERT!

[Cyberyeti]

♥4

for me this seems like a pretty clear choice. As it a) does not blow the suit straight away and b.) really works well when partner holds A, K or T for a hefty min of 70%

 

EDIT after seeing the OPs additional post: Oh I see! I didn't know we were supposed to pillory your partner for what looks like the %age lead to me :wacko:

 

 

RESULTER ALERT!

No, I posted it precisely because it is the normal lead from that suit combination, but I don't think it's right on this particular hand.

 

I think it's quite close as to whether to lead a diamond or a heart. Partner will have assessed before leaving the double in (presuming he has a minimum opening bid) that he reckons he's beating this on a diamond lead as that's what you're most likely to lead, and the system considerations mean he's 90%+ likely to hold 5+ diamonds and an unbalanced hand.

 

If you lead the Q♥, you would be desperately unlucky to butcher the hand (stiff K is the holding that's a complete disaster), if partner has Kx you may be OK as it looks like you have 2 spade entries, and it doesn't look like spades will be declarer's first choice of suit to play).

 

Small heart can butcher the hand in 2 ways. Declarer can have AK10, or more of a problem, declarer has AKx(x) and dummy has the 10 where you cough up a trick, a tempo and a dummy entry, and that's too much to risk IMO.

[pooltuna]

♥4

for me this seems like a pretty clear choice. As it a) does not blow the suit straight away and b.) really works well when partner holds A, K or T for a hefty min of 70%

 

EDIT after seeing the OPs additional post: Oh I see! I didn't know we were supposed to pillory your partner for what looks like the %age lead to me :)

 

 

RESULTER ALERT!

No, I posted it precisely because it is the normal lead from that suit combination, but I don't think it's right on this particular hand.

 

I think it's quite close as to whether to lead a diamond or a heart. Partner will have assessed before leaving the double in (presuming he has a minimum opening bid) that he reckons he's beating this on a diamond lead as that's what you're most likely to lead, and the system considerations mean he's 90%+ likely to hold 5+ diamonds and an unbalanced hand.

 

If you lead the Q♥, you would be desperately unlucky to butcher the hand (stiff K is the holding that's a complete disaster), if partner has Kx you may be OK as it looks like you have 2 spade entries, and it doesn't look like spades will be declarer's first choice of suit to play).

 

Small heart can butcher the hand in 2 ways. Declarer can have AK10, or more of a problem, declarer has AKx(x) and dummy has the 10 where you cough up a trick, a tempo and a dummy entry, and that's too much to risk IMO.

so you need a simulation on this hand to see what the %age lead is? But that's not what you asked for. So can someone please do a sim with constraints that opener's hand is either a balanced 15-17 or an unbalanced hand with a minimal opener but no 5 card or longer major? Also that RHO has a strong NT with at least 1 ♦ stopper

[Zelandakh]

If I was banned from leading a low heart I'd lead a low spade before touching the HQ...

[Cyberyeti]

I think you can rule out opener being 15-17, many and possibly most opps will pull 1Nx with nothing even if flat (certainly in the UK where most people in club bridge play a weak no trump so are used to seeing it doubled, have some escape mechanism, and play the same general system over a 1N overcall).

 

The sim is going to be very difficult to do because there are some 10 counts where opener will sit 1Nx, and some 11 or 12 counts where he won't so it's very subjective.

 

I'd suggest that upwards of 80% of the time partner is 10-12, overcaller 15-16 and dummy has 3-4.

[Free]

Sigh pooltuna has found some colors...

 

♥4 is completely normal imo.

[hanp]

Cyberyeti is just playing with you guys, declarer held Axx and dummy K108.

[655321]

Partner will have assessed before leaving the double in (presuming he has a minimum opening bid) that he reckons he's beating this on a diamond lead

I have snipped most of your resulting remarks (but pretty sure I disagree with every one of your sentences in that post), because I just wanted to highlight this one. Over the years I have come across a number of result merchants and their reasons why partner should have done something different, but this one is new to me.

[Cyberyeti]

Partner will have assessed before leaving the double in (presuming he has a minimum opening bid) that he reckons he's beating this on a diamond lead

I have snipped most of your resulting remarks (but pretty sure I disagree with every one of your sentences in that post), because I just wanted to highlight this one. Over the years I have come across a number of result merchants and their reasons why partner should have done something different, but this one is new to me.

Isn't this what everybody does ? I know it's exactly what my thoughts were at the table at the time.

 

If I have a 10 count with KQJ10xx and an ace I'll stand the double, if I have AK, x, Q10xxxx, Qxxx I'll pull it like a shot as a diamond lead may not be good and if you don't lead a diamond, a heart won't be good either.

 

If partner has a doubleton diamond I expect him to lead it 100% of the time he doesn't have a REALLY strong lead of his own, and sometimes with a singleton.

 

If I sit this double, I either have enough that it's going off whatever you lead, or I know it's almost certainly going off if you lead a diamond.

[cherdanno]

Cyberyeti, partner doesn't need 6 diamonds for a 1♦ opening. He will ALWAYS pass 1NTX with a balanced hand. No matter how good or bad his diamond suit is.

[Cyberyeti]

Cyberyeti, partner doesn't need 6 diamonds for a 1♦ opening. He will ALWAYS pass 1NTX with a balanced hand. No matter how good or bad his diamond suit is.

But he's playing a weak no trump and 4 card majors as I pointed out at the start, ergo he doesn't have a balanced hand as the chance of him being 15+ is negligible.

 

He always has 5 and another 4 card suit or 6 unless he has a 4441 12 count (would pass most 4441 11s and some 12s).

[cherdanno]

Ok that changes the likelyhood, but partner still won't bid with a 5-card diamond suit, unless he is weak with 5-5 in the minors. If his 5-card suit is bad enough that he doesn't want you to lead it, he certainly doesn't want to play a 5-2 fit in this suit with the strength behind him!

[Cyberyeti]

Ok that changes the likelyhood, but partner still won't bid with a 5-card diamond suit, unless he is weak with 5-5 in the minors. If his 5-card suit is bad enough that he doesn't want you to lead it, he certainly doesn't want to play a 5-2 fit in this suit with the strength behind him!

Absolute rubbish, I'd bid a 4 card club suit here with a bad diamond suit and a bad hand. I'd consider bidding a decent 4 card major playing pairs, although less likely at teams.

[gwnn]

Again I'm curious why you post something if you think the answer is 100% clear and (at least a part of) possible counterarguments to it are absolute rubbish. Are you trying to teach forum posters or are you were you looking for an argument of the type "hey p you may not believe me but look at all the forum people who agree with me!" ?

[jdonn]

4 of hearts of course. My partner usually has singleton ten anyway.

[jdonn]

I'm reading replies now. I don't get it, I'm supposed to pull on a minimum opening bid because my minors are Kxxxx AQxx? Do I hate my partner or something?

[Cyberyeti]

I'm reading replies now. I don't get it, I'm supposed to pull on a minimum opening bid because my minors are Kxxxx AQxx? Do I hate my partner or something?

When I say a minimum opening bid, I mean something like Qxx, x, Kxxxx, AQxx.

 

Partner figures to have a 9-10 count for this double a very large percentage of the time, and certainly at this vul, you are probably better bidding as this is unlikely to go well on the red suit lead you're going to get 80%+ of the time. As I said, you're in the land of the weak no trump (particularly in a club game like this), and most pairs play the same methods over a strong 1N overcall doubled as they do over a weak NT opener doubled, which means you don't ever stand it on a flattish zero.

 

Again I'm curious why you post something if you think the answer is 100% clear and (at least a part of) possible counterarguments to it are absolute rubbish. Are you trying to teach forum posters or are you were you looking for an argument of the type "hey p you may not believe me but look at all the forum people who agree with me!" ?

 

I'm posting it because I think it's very close whether you should lead Q♥ or 6♦, and also because I think 4♥, the normal lead from this holding is just clear cut wrong on this particular hand. I would say that the Q♥ will only fare badly if partner has some very specific heart holdings, stiff K or 10 and 109 with them 4-2, unless dummy unexpectedly has one of the major suit kings, and if small heart goes wrong, there is probably no recovery, whereas if partner has Kx and you'd rather have led a low one, with two spade entries you may well still be alright.

 

A simulation would be good, but almnost impossible to run due to working out what hands will stand 1Nx from each side.

[jdonn]

Did you ever consider maybe the doubler himself has an obvious lead?

 

Did you also ever consider that just because you don't think 1NTX will go well on a certain hand doesn't mean pulling it will go well either?

[gwnn]

So, in your opinion, when is the 4 right from QJ642 and when isn't it?