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As tuna said, the winning case for the ten is QJxx for declarer and xx and an entry with partner, dummy having a hand that would pass 1NT despite a singleton diamond.

 

The winning cases for a top diamond are Qxxx opposite Jx or vice-versa, or when they have Qx and you can run the whole suit. That just seems a lot more likely without using a sim.

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There are a few other winning cases for small (partner has a singleton queen, and the other diamonds are 3-3; partner has Qx and declarer has Jxxx.) But I would expect a big diamond to be a big winner. Given that we expect a flat dummy, some values in partners hand, and we have a reentry, even when our lead is wrong we'll usually only blow a trick not blow the whole suit.

 

I wonder how many people would have found the pass at the table.

 

As for the sim, opening lead sims invariably suggest leading high from e.g. QJxx against notrump, in lots of cases where single-dummy analysis says to lead low. I am quite sure a sim here will say the same thing :(

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