Reevaluating AQ10 in opps suit

[Fluffy]

♠AQ10

♥653

♦983

♣A1053

 

NS vul, dealer south

 

 

ps-(1♦)-ps-(2♠)

ps-(ps)- X-(ps)

??

 

 

2♠ is weak but the opps have no about how weak.

 

 

EDIT: Forgot to mention 2NT would be scrambling so it is not an option now

[Free]

Are you thinking of passing this?? I'd just bid 3♣.

[ArtK78]

3♣ seems awfully wimpy. 3NT should have some play.

[pooltuna]

3♣ seems awfully wimpy.  3NT should have some play.

if 3NT has play how do you think 2♠X was going to do?

[ArtK78]

I doubt that I will beat it 4 tricks.

[pooltuna]

I doubt that I will beat it 4 tricks.

I take it you are 100% sure that 3NT will take 9 tricks then? :)

[Fluffy]

thx for the replies, partner had

 

♠xx

♥Q109x

♦A10xx

♣KQ9

 

I made 3NT after ♠J lead, for 96%, 2♠X I think would go just 1 down.

[whereagles]

it's a no branier pass for me, though :P

[Fluffy]

BTW the play was kind of interesting counting exercise. Kind of the best hand I played in long time, the top for my current level I guess :P.

 

♠xx

♥Q109x

♦A10xx

♣KQ9

 

 

♠AQ10

♥xxx

♦98x

♣A10xx

 

 

♠J lead to the queen, and a heart, LHO raises with ♥A to return a spade on wich RHO plays small. I take the 10.

 

I play another heart and now LHO produces ♥8. Time to think.

 

If ♥J is on LHO's hands we already have 9 tricks by playing low, 3 spades, 2 hearts, 1 diamond, 3 clubs, even an overtrick is possible.

 

But LHO is almost marked with ♥K since he never played a diamond, he cannot have ♦KQJ, so at most he has ♠J ♥AJ ♦KQ ♣J for a total of 12, but that would be very rare play in the heart suit and very unlucky lie out.

 

 

Assuming ♥K is in LHO's hands there is a play that guarantees 9 tricks, play the ♥Q. The only real danger on this hand is that LHO has ♣Jxxx, but if he has that he will have 2344 and the hearts are breaking 3-3 so Just winning ♥Q and playing another guarantees the cotract. (While playing ♥10 will lead to 1 down if hearts are 3-3)

 

 

LHO happened to hold ♥AKJ8 so he cashed 2 heart tricks on wich east pitched spades, and I pitched a diamond, next came a club. Wich I had to take with the King in dummy otherwise risking a block. Now clubs are most likelly 3-3, but it is still possible that RHO has 6214 with a stiff diamond honnor.

 

[hv=n=shda10xxcq9&w=shdkjxx(x)cx(j)&e=sxxhdq(x)cxx(j)&s=sahd98ca10x]399|300|[/hv]

 

Nevermind, just duck a diamond now, whatever they return, cash the diamond ace and see if RHO has 1 or 2, We've got the full count of the hand, so if he has 2 diamonds clubs are 3-3 while if he has singleton make the marked finese against ♣Jxxx