rosenblum round of 32: best line?

[mikeh]

[hv=d=s&v=e&n=sxxhxxxdxxxcak87x&s=shkj7xdaq8xcj109xx]133|200|Scoring: IMP

The auction was 1♣ (1♠) 2♣ (3♣) 5♣ (x) all pass. You ruff the opening high spade lead, lead the club J to the A, dropping the Q offside, ruff the 2nd spade high, cross by the club 9 to the K and now...your play[/hv]

[655321]

You need 4 red suit tricks, and not to lose 3 red suit tricks. Really, you want to guess which red suit is 3-3 and play that suit first.

 

Starting with a diamond needs the diamond finesse, but it also need diamonds to be the 3-3 suit, and you still need to guess hearts later.

 

Starting with a heart to the Jack works when East has the ♥AQ and either hearts are 3-3, or hearts are 4-2 but the diamond finesse works. If East has the ♥A and West has the ♥Q, West has to give you something, either the diamond finesse or a heart, so you can use your last entry to play the other red suit. Starting with a heart to the King needs hearts to be the 3-3 suit, and it also needs the diamond finesse, and for one of the hearts to be onside.

 

Starting with a heart to the Jack looks as if it might be best, with the slight extra chance that you can make sometimes even when hearts is not the 3-3 suit, but perhaps there are extra chances I have missed with the other options.

 

(edit) Maybe a heart to the Jack would have been better at trick 2, even after the spades are eliminated West can often lead a 3rd spade, if that gives us an eighth trump trick we may still lose 3 red suit tricks because we are stuck in hand.

 

(another edit) If you start by playing on diamonds (diamond to Queen, diamond Ace, diamond) and it turns out that diamonds are 4-2 but hearts are 3-3, you still have two entries (diamond ruff, trump) to play hearts up and take advantage of AQ of hearts onside, in which case my 'extra chance' for playing a heart to the jack first is no extra chance at all, so which suit you play first might just be a complete guess.

Edited October 10, 2010 by 655321