Percentage Line?

[awm]

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=skt98xxha9xdxxxcx&s=saxhkxxdqtcaqxxxx]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

You reach 4♠ by south via a transfer auction after opening a 15-17 notrump.

 

The opening lead is the ♦A, followed by ♦K (RHO discouraging) and a diamond to RHO's jack which you ruff with the ♠x.

 

Hopefully the spades will split 3-2, but there is not much you can do about that now. The question is how to cope with the possible heart loser. Which plan do you prefer?

 

If it matters, the scoring is MP, field is fairly weak.

[whereagles]

on abstract, club ruffs seem very slightly better: ~52% vs 50%. But it has an advantage: perhaps someone drops a heart or two and a squeeze develops.

[rogerclee]

on abstract, club ruffs seem very slightly better: ~52% vs 50%. But it has an advantage: perhaps someone drops a heart or two and a squeeze develops.

1534 with stiff spade honor in rhos hand? I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

But anyway I would also ruff 2 clubs and it seems clear to me. Assuming clubs are either 33 or 42, which is fine because other layouts are either unlikely or irrelevant, picking up all 33s and a third of the 42s is easily better than 50 percent.

[Fluffy]

weak LHO might hesitate to act over 1NT with AKxxx an outside king and whatever he's got in the majors.

 

 

but ruffing clubs has some advantages, like scoring all trumps separatelly when RHO has stiff trump honnor.

 

There will be no squeeze since I am not risking one extra down regardless, so will never draw trumps before tackling clubs.

 

My feeling is that finese is better.