Risking the slam bonus

[inquiry]

[hv=w=skj6haj94da763cak&e=saq4hk7dj2cqj9742]266|100|Scoring: MP

6NT by WEST

 

Opening lead helpful ♦K

 

You win 1D, 3S, 1H and 6C coming to the following ending (north is proven to have started with precisely 3♠-2♥-6♦-2♣, while south had 4♠-5♥-1♦-3♣

[/hv]

[hv=w=skj6haj94da763cak&e=saq4hk7dj2cqj9742]266|100|Scoring: MP

6NT by WEST

 

Opening lead helpful ♦K

 

You win 1D, 3S, 1H and 6C coming to the following ending (north is proven to have started with precisely 3♠-2♥-6♦-2♣, while south had 4♠-5♥-1♦-3♣

[/hv]

 

The MP event options are

High level game

Strong game

Intermedaite game

Weak game

[BunnyGo]

[hv=w=skj6haj94da763cak&e=saq4hk7dj2cqj9742]266|100|Scoring: MP

Opening lead helpful ♦K

 

You win 1D, 3S, 1H and 6C coming to the following ending (north is proven to have started with precisely 3♠-2♥-6♦-2♣, while south had 4♠-5♥-1♦-3♣

[/hv]

[hv=w=skj6haj94da763cak&e=saq4hk7dj2cqj9742]266|100|Scoring: MP

Opening lead helpful ♦K

 

You win 1D, 3S, 1H and 6C coming to the following ending (north is proven to have started with precisely 3♠-2♥-6♦-2♣, while south had 4♠-5♥-1♦-3♣

[/hv]

 

The MP event options are

High level game

Strong game

Intermedaite game

Weak game

I'm a believer in taking plusses at matchpoints--especially when we get a favorable lead in a top contract (unless someone makes a grand). I play for the drop of Norths queen. If I'm right, I'm beating every grand slam (and every non 6NT contract--and maybe even some of those). If I hook and am wrong I'm losing to basically every other table.

[TylerE]

Aaaaaaaacccccceeeeeeeee

[cherdanno]

What contract are we in and who was dealer?

[manudude03]

I don't finesse for a card thats in my hand :blink:. In general I wouldn't finesse though, maybe if a weak opp was managing to discard in tempo.

 

EDIT: Ah I see poll is fixed. I suppose there's something to be said about finessing if your partner doesn't mind you going down in a cold slam. Finessing is working about 71% of the time. That means that we should be finessing unless we expect 6NT= to be more than 71%. I suppose that means that really we should be playing safe in a weak field and going for it at any better. Besides, a weak North may be nervous about whether she's going to score her queen if they have it.

 

 

Having said all that, I'm still playing the ace, I don't want to be the one who goes down with 12 top tricks. It might put me on tilt for a while.

[inquiry]

What contract are we in and who was dealer?

6NT, East was dealer and WEST was declarer

[W Kovacs]

What contract are we in and who was dealer?

It looks like 6NTW.

 

The poll is unanimous so far, but there aren't many votes yet. I spurn the finesse and if the Q falls, I do a happy dance.

[jdonn]

I finesse except in a game so weak I think there is any chance people have missed slam (I find 6♣ very unlikely since it will mostly go essentially 2NT - 6NT). Um, I will get a better score over 70% of the time, you don't often have that knowledge for sure about a play, it's a total waste not to take advantage! In any game that isn't very weak you are simply throwing away matchpoints if you don't finesse.

[bid_em_up]

"You win 1D, 3S, 1H and 6C coming to the following ending (north is proven to have started with precisely 3♠-2♥-6♦-2♣, while south had 4♠-5♥-1♦-3♣"

 

How did we reach this conclusion?

[inquiry]

"You win 1D, 3S, 1H and 6C coming to the following ending (north is proven to have started with precisely 3♠-2♥-6♦-2♣, while south had 4♠-5♥-1♦-3♣"

 

How did we reach this conclusion?

Only 1♦ out, and it is the ♦Q. We know (based on the lead) that north has it (unless remarkable lead from king long without it). The rest of the cards were played on the clubs, so that there are also three missing hearts. Since north has 1 diamond left, his other card is heart and south's two cards are hearts.

 

We noted what they played as we went along.... to get the actual numbers. So north had 2♥ originally to south's five.

[cherdanno]

I finesse except in a game so weak I think there is any chance people have missed slam (I find 6♣ very unlikely since it will mostly go essentially 2NT - 6NT). Um, I will get a better score over 70% of the time, you don't often have that knowledge for sure about a play, it's a total waste not to take advantage! In any game that isn't very weak you are simply throwing away matchpoints if you don't finesse.

That's why I asked who was dealer. East was dealer, he opened 1♣, thus I expect more pairs to have a misunderstanding, or to end up in 6♣ or 7♣. I would argue that with East as dealer there is a stronger case for taking the plus.

 

Anyway, I think a much more interesting question would be whether South or North gave anything away with their discards (and the timing of their discards). Unless we are playing the leader of the event, I find it unlikely that the game is weak enough to play the ace, and our opponents strong enough not to give anything away.

[jdonn]

Yes obviously there are lots of factors, how they discarded, did north play the ten, how did the auction go, etc. For example there are certain players where if north played the ten on the first round I'd always play him for QT. But that is still based on me doing what I believe will work, not going up ace due to fear of risking the slam. My point is more abstract that the 5-2 odds in the general sense are plenty good enough to go for it. Even if 10% of the field will be in 7NT and 10% in 6♣ I think it's a clear play. These are the type of odds someone just can't pass up at matchpoints.

[WellSpyder]

Opening lead helpful ♦K

I don't understand this comment. Surely ♦K is a very unhelpful (though hopefully normal) lead? Anyone getting a different lead will be able to try the ♥ finesse without risking going off.

[MFA]

33 hcp and almost balanced. 6NT should be very popular in any game. Odds 5:2 in the heart suit are overwhelming. I'm finessing.

[cloa513]

It surely depends on where your current ranking is approximately in the tournament and where you'd be happy to be at. If far beyond you got to try for the overtrick.

[Zelandakh]

33 hcp and almost balanced. 6NT should be very popular in any game. Odds 5:2 in the heart suit are overwhelming. I'm finessing.

In a weak field I would expect to see some 3NT. In an intermediate field 6C is going to occur a fair bit. Whether these occur enough to offset the potential gain is something of a judgement but this is the reason I picked "Finesse in Strong+". I suspect Ben really posted this to show why some of the reasoning in the vacant paces thread was wrong.