Where's the line

[paulg]

I posed this problem to some of the club team I mentor. As they disagreed with both my answers, I said I'd poll a wider audience B)

 

Hand 1

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=st73h6da7532cj763]133|100|Scoring: IMP

  (1♥) Dbl   (4♥) Pass

(Pass) Dbl (Pass) ?[/hv]

 

Hand 2

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=st73h6da7532cj763]133|100|Scoring: IMP

  (1♥) Dbl   (4♥) Pass

(Pass) Dbl (Pass) ?[/hv]

[JLOGIC]

4N, 4S.

 

4N might get you to the wrong minor on the first one but partner might also be 4225 very strong or something so I wouldn't just bid 5D. Passing on either one seems really bad.

[Free]

Bid on both, don't like to leave these Doubles with a singleton trump.

[rhm]

4N, 4S.

 

4N might get you to the wrong minor on the first one but partner might also be 4225 very strong or something so I wouldn't just bid 5D. Passing on either one seems really bad.

 

Why?

Total tricks arguments does not suggest action.

Opponents have likely 10 ♥s between them, you may have a 9 card fit in a minor or on the second hand an eight card ♠ fit.

 

So it seems wildly unlikely that this is a double game swing and chances for 4 or more tricks in defense look to me much more likely than ten or eleven on offense.

Yes every second leap year partner might have a real powerhouse and I will miss slam. But with an almost certain loser in ♥, this looks really remote. If you had 3 small in ♥ and shortage in another suit bidding on would be much more attractive and passing much more dangerous.

 

I at least am not prepared to sacrifice against 4♥ with no clear source of tricks.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[hanp]

With 18 total tricks I'll gladly bid 4S over 4H, risking that both are down 1. With 19 total tricks I'd bid 5m over 4H for the same reason.

 

Of course we don't know the exact total trumps, let alone total trumps. I would never pass though.

 

And it seems really pessimistic to call bidding a sacrifice. Partner has shown quite a good hand and our hand could be much worse.

[655321]

Opponents have likely 10 ♥s between them

This can be rephrased as 'Partner likely has a doubleton heart', and I disagree with that. To double 1♥ then 4♥ partner is much more likely to have distribution, including very short hearts. Most hands with a doubleton heart won't act again.

[Pict]

I'd pass the first and bid the second. The risks of bidding on the first are much greater.

[W Kovacs]

I bid on both hands. As stated before, partner has a powerhouse, likely very distributional, and East has a weak hand with long hearts.

 

Besides, in my system, the TO dbl is still on through 4♠ and partner has demanded I bid, so to pass is criminal. I value partner's trust more than that.

[pooltuna]

With 18 total tricks I'll gladly bid 4S over 4H, risking that both are down 1. With 19 total tricks I'd bid 5m over 4H for the same reason.

 

Of course we don't know the exact total trumps, let alone total trumps. I would never pass though.

 

And it seems really pessimistic to call bidding a sacrifice. Partner has shown quite a good hand and our hand could be much worse.

If I am bidding in this auction it is with the expectation of making. Since I think that is far from sure I am passing with the expectation of setting them.

[jdonn]

Yeah we aren't bidding to sacrifice, why can't we be making our contract? Partner showed a good hand.

[Vilgan]

Given the fact partner doubled 2x and I've got an A to help out I doubt they are making 4♥. The main issue (imo) is should we bid, and w/ 4♠ and a singleton heart, I think its worth it but its not good enough to go up a level and bid diamonds or 4NT w/ the first hand.

[nigel_k]

Definitely bid on both. Both sides will be down one fairly often but I want to be on the right side of the big swings. Also, they may bid one more.

[nige1]

I posed this problem to some of the club team I mentor. As they disagreed with both my answers, I said I'd poll a wider audience :)

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=st73h6da7532cj763]133|100|Scoring: IMP

Hand 1

  (1♥) Dbl   (4♥) Pass

(Pass) Dbl (Pass) ?[/hv][hv=d=w&v=n&s=st73h6da7532cj763]133|100|Scoring: IMP

Hand 1

  (1♥) Dbl   (4♥) Pass

(Pass) Dbl (Pass) ?[/hv]

IMO, Paul's examples nicely illustrate the dividing line between bidding and passing. What would other posters regard as hands on the cusp? Opponents have 9-12 ♥ (say 10.5 average). We probably have a 5-4 fit and a 4-4 fit

Hence

1. _P = 10, 4♠ = 9, 4N = 7.
   4♠ is the best bet for game on the first hand but it is a brave effort and you should probably run to 4N if doubled. Partner's double may not be classical but he almost always has good ♠, so there are better defensive prospects on the first hand because more spade winners are likely to stand up. The other argument against bidding is that although we may have a good contract, opponents have left us little room to find the right strain and level. Partner should be sound for his actions, so it may be better to settle for a "Bird in the hand." "When fixed stay fixed." Pre-empts work." :)
   
2. 4♠ = 10, P = 5.
   Partner will be disappointed if you fail to bid 4♠.
   

[jonottawa]

Bid on both, but the first one is close and I'm mainly bidding to avoid the 'when I make a takeout double' speech. I suspect that if you always picked the right strain that bidding is %, whereas since you won't it is mildly anti-% but not worth the grief when you're wrong.

[the hog]

4N 4S. In my opinion both are easy bids.

[paulg]

It is the first hand that actually came up during last weekend's English Premier League. Looking at the results, most players who were (probably) faced with this decision passed.

 

Partner holds a 4252 hand with 18 points. Pass gets you +300 and bidding will get you +400 in five diamonds although it needs a finesse through the opening bidder to make (if the finesse failed you will still get 300 from 4♥-X).

 

I am mildly surprised at how strongly the bidders feel that bidding is right. At the table I didn't think that any action was clear cut, but maybe I should revise this given those who are recommending bidding!

 

I would have been surprised if anyone passed on the second hand.

 

Paul

[rhm]

It is the first hand that actually came up during last weekend's English Premier League. Looking at the results, most players who were (probably) faced with this decision passed.

 

Partner holds a 4252 hand with 18 points. Pass gets you +300 and bidding will get you +400 in five diamonds although it needs a finesse through the opening bidder to make (if the finesse failed you will still get 300 from 4♥-X).

 

I am mildly surprised at how strongly the bidders feel that bidding is right. At the table I didn't think that any action was clear cut, but maybe I should revise this given those who are recommending bidding!

 

I would have been surprised if anyone passed on the second hand.

 

Paul

And of course it is absolutely clear that partner will have 18 HCP for his second double in the balancing position and of course also that you will find 5 card(!) support for your longest suit and that partner will never raise 5♦ with such a hand.

 

Even though that happens you are only on a finesse to make 5♦.

 

No thanks, what you report convinces me that all those, who bid on and consider it clearcut are in deed very courageous -- (on paper, of course).

 

I'll take the money as apparently most of the players of the English Premier League did. It seems to me that the ones, who manage to play in the English Premier League exhibit far superior judgment than the average contributor to this forum.

No surprise there.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[nige1]

It is the first hand that actually came up during last weekend's English Premier League. Looking at the results, most players who were (probably) faced with this decision passed.

Partner holds a 4252 hand with 18 points. Pass gets you +300 and bidding will get you +400 in five diamonds although it needs a finesse through the opening bidder to make (if the finesse failed you will still get 300 from 4♥-X).

I am mildly surprised at how strongly the bidders feel that bidding is right. At the table I didn't think that any action was clear cut, but maybe I should revise this given those who are recommending bidding!

I would have been surprised if anyone passed on the second hand.

It is interesting how we all judge things differently, Paul. What would happen to 4♠ on the 4-3 fit on the first hand?

[paulg]

It is the first hand that actually came up during last weekend's English Premier League. Looking at the results, most players who were (probably) faced with this decision passed.

Partner holds a 4252 hand with 18 points. Pass gets you +300 and bidding will get you +400 in five diamonds although it needs a finesse through the opening bidder to make (if the finesse failed you will still get 300 from 4♥-X).

I am mildly surprised at how strongly the bidders feel that bidding is right. At the table I didn't think that any action was clear cut, but maybe I should revise this given those who are recommending bidding!

I would have been surprised if anyone passed on the second hand.

It is interesting how we all judge things differently, Paul. What would happen to 4♠ on the 4-3 fit on the first hand?

4♠ will make on the actual hand too but needs two finesses (one through the pre-emptor) to work on best defence (which is unlikely as it involves leading from KQx rather than from AK of hearts).

[hanp]

And of course it is absolutely clear that partner will have 18 HCP for his second double in the balancing position.

Not at all, partner can be quite a bit lighter, especially with (very) short hearts.

[mcphee]

4N and 4S I just do not really see this as a problem, partner holds a hand that is strong and our hand is offensive. I expect to be able to make on both hands, I do not consider this to me a close choice at all.

[rhm]

And of course it is absolutely clear that partner will have 18 HCP for his second double in the balancing position.

Not at all, partner can be quite a bit lighter, especially with (very) short hearts.

Even when the bidding starts this way, opponents are very unlikely to have 12 cards in hearts between them.

So if partner also has a singleton heart and is lighter, where are your 11 tricks?

I do not see what is so desirable to have a singleton in both hands in the same suit. This reduces your trick potential on offense significantly.

Even if partner has a void in hearts, clearly against the odds, you have just one ruff.

The remaining 10 tricks will have to come from high cards. Not very likely if partner is quite a bit lighter than 18 HCP.

 

Rainer Herrmann

[655321]

If partner is lighter in HCP with a singleton or void heart, then:

• Opponents are quite likely to make 4♥X,
  
• Opponents are relatively likely to take the push to 5♥.
  

Passing 4♥X seems to put all your eggs in the 'partner is strong and balanced (and we don't make anything)' basket, and strikes me as being fairly naive, regardless of OP's guess that some tables in the English Premier League may have done this.

[jdeegan]

:D Geez! Points, schmoints! Doesn't anybody make up example hands anymore? In order to double, partner has to have a hand that will do two things:

1. Offer 4♠ as a good spot opposite four to the jack and jack sh*t

2. Defeat 4♥ opposite jack sh*t w/o four spades or a long suit

 

AKxx

xx

KQ10

AK10x

 

This is a minimum. Playing opposite hand 1, you might go -100 vs. +100, no biggie

Any finesses are 2 or 3 to one to succeed thru the opening bidder.

 

This is, imho, not a problem hand. Bidding may lose, but on a minority of hands.