Round 3, Board 13

[inquiry]

[hv=d=n&v=b&n=saj9764hakq5d6ck2&s=sqt52hjdakqj93ca5]133|200|Scoring: MP

Submitted by Hanoi5

 

Bidding Script: EW do not bid.

 

Hanoi comments: "Hands where several strains can be played are really interesting. Here are 3 possible denominations to play in and the level is also a concern. No doubt most pairs will play 6 (S or NT) and it will be a very fine result for those who reach the grand, unless they play in the major. Also, can they dismiss the boss suit for NT or diamonds? 7NT, 10; 7D, 9; 7S, 6; 6NT/6S/6D, 4."[/hv]

[hrothgar]

Piss poor and lazy bidding by me lead us to 7♠

[rogerclee]

Hanoi's scores seem really off on this one.

[jdonn]

I ended in 7♠ and am really mad at myself I didn't get to 7NT. Essentially we had a keycard auction with spades as trumps and I bid 6NT which gib overruled to 7♠. I turned off my brain and passed.

[JLOGIC]

How could 6N, 6S, and 6D all get the same score?!

 

7N then 7D is clearly right, but I think 6N is very close behind that assuming most of the field gets to 6S, and few find 7N or 7D.

 

And 6S clearly beats 6D since most will be in 6S.

 

I'll let the geniuses figure out how 7S should be scored, it is an interesting question though and depends a lot on how many people are in 6N (for instance if the entire field bids 6N, then 7S is way better than 6S obv.)

 

I would have thought it would be like:

 

7N 11, 7D 10, 6N 9 then 6S then 6D, with 7S somewhere in there.

[kayin801]

I was sitting south and I saw this auction:

 

1♣ (16+!!!)-2♣ (unbal no 5cM)

2♠!!!!! - 4NT (DNE, but must be RKC)

5♥ (2 no Q) - 7NT (2+2=5)

 

I was mortified for a moment when I realized what I had done before seeing the entire hand, but considering some of the *&$## bids I had made before this SOMETHING had to go right.

[hanp]

I recommend learning RKC to those ending in 7S and learning straight blackwood to those ending at the 6-level.

 

7S should receive exactly 50% unless some pairs make it to 7NT. If the rest is at the 6-level or in 7D then the expected MP score is easy.

 

Harder to compute the expected MP scores of other contracts, but once the results of the field are posted it is actually quite easy since the outcome of all contracts depends almost entirely on the position of the spade king. (ok, not quite true in diamonds)

[Cyberyeti]

I recommend learning RKC to those ending in 7S and learning straight blackwood to those ending at the 6-level.

 

7S should receive exactly 50% unless some pairs make it to 7NT. If the rest is at the 6-level or in 7D then the expected MP score is easy.

 

Harder to compute the expected MP scores of other contracts, but once the results of the field are posted it is actually quite easy since the outcome of all contracts depends almost entirely on the position of the spade king. (ok, not quite true in diamonds)

This is extremely harsh, like they're supposed to know that stiff J♥ completely changes the calculations from stiff 10♥.

 

6N > 6♠ > 6♦ clearly, so they can't have the same score.

 

I'd suggest 7N 12, 7♦ 10, 6N/7♠ 5, 6♠ 4, 6♦ 2

[hanp]

I recommend learning RKC to those ending in 7S and learning straight blackwood to those ending at the 6-level.

 

7S should receive exactly 50% unless some pairs make it to 7NT. If the rest is at the 6-level or in 7D then the expected MP score is easy.

 

Harder to compute the expected MP scores of other contracts, but once the results of the field are posted it is actually quite easy since the outcome of all contracts depends almost entirely on the position of the spade king. (ok, not quite true in diamonds)

This is extremely harsh, like they're supposed to know that stiff J♥ completely changes the calculations from stiff 10♥.

 

6N > 6♠ > 6♦ clearly, so they can't have the same score.

 

I'd suggest 7N 12, 7♦ 10, 6N/7♠ 5, 6♠ 4, 6♦ 2

I don't understand your scores. Let's say this the field has 101 tables and they play:

 

7NT = 1 pair

7S = 10 pairs

7D = 3 pairs

6NT = 28 pairs

6S = 51 pairs

6D = 7 pairs

4S = 1 pair

 

Let's simplify by saying that the diamonds always split, so that the scores only depend on the spade finesse. If it is on then:

 

7NT = 100 MP

7S = 95 MP

7D = 88.5 MP

6NT = 73 MP

6S = 33.5 MP

6D = 4.5 MP

4S = 0.5 MP

 

But if it is off then the scores are:

 

7NT = 100 MPs

7S = 0 MPs

7D = 97.5 MPs

6NT = 83 MPs

6S = 43.5 MPs

6D = 14.5 MPs

4S = 10.5 MPs

 

The expected MP scores would be:

 

7NT = 100 MPs

7S = 47.5 MPs

7D = 93 MPs

6NT = 78 MPs

6S = 38.5 MPs

6D = 9.5 MPs

4S = 5.5 MPs

 

Converting to a 12-MP top and rounding up or down we would get:

 

7NT = 12

7S = 6

7D = 11

6NT = 9

6S = 5

6D = 1

4S = 1

 

Of course the field above was completely made up by me, but we have a field so we can base the scores on that.

 

The expected MP score for 7D would be a tad lower than 93 but since I already rounded down to get 11 I would leave it at that.

[Cyberyeti]

Han, without using any science, I was a lot closer than the initial estimates, the main point was that 6N was undervalued and 6♦ overvalued, which is what you showed. I got the relative values of 6N and 7♠ wrong, but that's about it.

 

I think what you came up with out of your little exercise was fine.

[hanp]

I actually didn't understand what you meant with "this is extremely harsh". I hope it was clear that my first sentence was a joke. Getting to 7NT with any confidence on a non-relay auction seems almost impossible.

 

I didn't just post the little exercises because I too much time. I would like it if the scores were obtained by some method that is clear and understandable. Using our own pairs as the field is the best method I can think of.

 

Suppose you bid to 6NT as Justin and I did. If everybody bids to 7NT on this hand then our 6NT should score really badly. If everybody bids to 6S then 6NT should score really well.

[inquiry]

7NS sohcahtoa/east4evil

7NN TimG/TgoodwinSr

6NS Karlson/threenobob

6NS MBodell/Javabean

6NS gnasher/catch22

6NN hanp/jlall

6NN cherdano/rogerclee

7SS wackojack/flycycle

7SN jdonn/gib

7SN Hrothgar/Free

6SN awn/elianna

6SN ant590/cryzeejim

6SN bid_em_up/TylerE

6SN olegru/driver733

6SN bluecalm/redds

6SN peachy/Ig62

 

Missing Notrump is punished. These are the scores I assigned originally.

 

7N = 11

7D = 9

6N = 7

7S = 6

6S = 3

[hanp]

So we have the following final contracts:

 

7NT 2 (well done!)

7S 3

6NT 5

6S 6

 

That means the MPs when the finesse is on are (14.5, 12.5, 8.5, 3) and when the finesse is off they are (14.5, 1.5, 11.5, 6) for an average of (14.5, 7, 10, 4.5). When we multiply with 12/15 we get:

 

7NT = 12 (rounded up)

6NT = 8

7S = 6 (rounded up)

6S = 4 (rounded up)

 

They are quite close to inquiry's suggestions but not exactly equal. How did you assign them Ben?

[inquiry]

I assigned them based on what I thought they would be worth, with a 50% spade finesse. I also had other contracts in that I had to give scores too (when I was creating the scores). I try to be influenced by what happens, so I make them up before the bidding starts. I don't worry too much about being wrong, because when I am, you guys will point it out. :)

[junyi_zhu]

I actually didn't understand what you meant with "this is extremely harsh". I hope it was clear that my first sentence was a joke. Getting to 7NT with any confidence on a non-relay auction seems almost impossible.

 

I didn't just post the little exercises because I too much time. I would like it if the scores were obtained by some method that is clear and understandable. Using our own pairs as the field is the best method I can think of.

 

Suppose you bid to 6NT as Justin and I did. If everybody bids to 7NT on this hand then our 6NT should score really badly. If everybody bids to 6S then 6NT should score really well.

Well, it's still quite possible.

1S 3D(solid)

4H(how many side aces?) 4S(1)

5C(we have all aces, CK) 5D(no extra length, no side king)

5H(HK) 5S(SQ)

6H(HQ, 6NT is safe, so let's try to 7NT) 7NT(now HJ gets the value)

[peachy]

This is MP scoring so 6S or 6D should not get the same score as 6NT. Not that it much matters as 7NT is cold, but 7S should not get such a high score either. The trick in this hand is to count 13 tricks and not to get to 7S which needs SK to be found.

[jdonn]

This is MP scoring so 6S or 6D should not get the same score as 6NT. Not that it much matters as 7NT is cold, but 7S should not get such a high score either. The trick in this hand is to count 13 tricks and not to get to 7S which needs SK to be found.

Who cares what the "trick in this hand" is? 7♠ will get a near top 50% of the time and a bottom the other 50%, so it should score (barely less than) 50% of the matchpoints.