inquiry Posted September 29, 2010 Report Share Posted September 29, 2010 [hv=d=s&v=n&n=sa9742h5daktckq53&s=sq65hat62dq5ca642]133|200|Scoring: MPSubmitted by inquiry Bidding Script: EW do not bid Another can you get into the minor suit 4-4 if you keep bidding and should you?[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted September 29, 2010 Report Share Posted September 29, 2010 Our auction to 6♣ went 1N - 2♥2♠ - 3♣3♠ - 5♠6♣ In retrospect, I think that I (North) was way too aggressive even if it did work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 6C looks very appealing on a superficial glance. However, imagine the play on a heart lead: You win and pull trumps and play a spade to the queen. They win and play a heart, making you ruff. Now you cannot play off your 3 diamonds pitching a spade, and then ruff your spade, there is no entry to dummy. So on a heart lead we need 3-2 clubs, 3-2 spades, and the SK onside which is about 23 %. You can probably improve upon this slightly, but that is the jist of it. On a diamond lead you are in better shape, but you still need 3-2 clubs and spades not 4-1 with the king offside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 A ♥ lead is indeed difficult, but still there are more chances than Justin tells us. So you take ♥A, ♣ to the K, ♠ to the Q.- If it loses to East's King, you need 3-2 in the blacks. (Justin's 23%)- If it loses to West's King and they continue a ♥, you ruff in dummy, play ♣A, draw ♦s discarding a ♠ and play ♠A and another ♠. You need the 3rd ♠ with the 3rd ♣ in the same hand, but you still have ♣Q as an entry. So ♠K doesn't need to be onside, although it helps a lot :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 Yeah I also think it is a bit better than 23%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peachy Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 6C is not as good as it first looks and even if the panel thinks it should be top score, it should not get more than 1 more than 4S. We had a weak NT auction 1N-2H-2S-3C-4S. I think it is debatable, at least, whether 4S was the right call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted October 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Six clubs is much better than 23% (simulations suggest around 60%), but is not the best contract (it is the best slam, but slams are not that great). On this one, you need to stay in spades, 4S is virtually cold. The contracts were: 4SN hanp/jlall4SN bid_em_up/TylerE4SN jdonn/gib6CS gnasher/catch226Cs awn/elianna6CS ant590/cryzeejim6CN Hrothgar/Free6CN TimG/TgoodwinSr6CN wackojack/flycycle6SS MBodell/Javabean6SS peachy/Ig626SN sohcahtoa/east4evil6SN olegru/driver7336SN bluecalm/redds3NN Karlson/threenobob7CS cherdano/rogerclee Scores:4S = 96C = 75S = 76S = 55C = 43N = 34N = 27C = 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Six clubs is much better than 23% (simulations suggest around 60%), but is not the best contract (it is the best slam, but slams are not that great). 60 % combining any lead I presume? I was trying to analyze on only a heart lead because I don't know what % they lead a heart... and I acknowledged I probably didn't find the best line in 6C but can't imagine there being a much better line than frees. My only point was that seemed like the "obvious" line and we ended up with entry problems Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 60 % combining any lead I presume? I would guess "60% after the double dummy best lead" is what he means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 60 % combining any lead I presume? I would guess "60% after the double dummy best lead" is what he means. If that's true it should outscore 4♠ since it beats it 60% of the time. But I'm sure it involved lots of guessing of Kx of spades offside so probably not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wackojack Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 I recklessly drove the auction to 6♣ because I could not resist using the system toys that were available after having taken the trouble to learn them. 1♦ 10-13 bal 2♣ relay2♥ 4 2NT relay3♣ 4 4♣ minorwood4♠ 2-Q 6♣pass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 If that's true it should outscore 4♠ since it beats it 60% of the time. What he said: If 6♣ is really a 60% slam, it should be outscoring the game contracts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdanno Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 If that's true it should outscore 4♠ since it beats it 60% of the time. What he said: If 6♣ is really a 60% slam, it should be outscoring the game contracts That's does not follow. When 6S is down, 4S ALWAYS gets a matchpoint from those pairs, whereas 6C sometimes only gets half a matchpoint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Makes you wonder if these guys have ever played matchpoints... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 60 % combining any lead I presume? I would guess "60% after the double dummy best lead" is what he means. If that's true it should outscore 4♠ since it beats it 60% of the time. But I'm sure it involved lots of guessing of Kx of spades offside so probably not. Yes, I expect it is much worse single dummy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Double dummy is a terrible way to evaluate how often 6C makes here imo, double dummy we always pick up Kx on our left, always pull trumps and pick up spades when RHO has stiff T/J or JT doubleton, etc etc. That is a huge edge that we don't have single dummy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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