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Round 3, Board 6


inquiry

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[hv=n=sq94haqj862daq3c2&s=sajt53h4dk74cq873]133|200|Submitted by Hanoi5

 

Bidding script: EW stay out of the auction

 

Hanoi comments: "Another hand where supporting with three cards could work, but in this case with 6 hearts it seems out of the question for opener to support spades. After the jump, however, South is definitely in trouble and the easy way out will turn out to be not the best option. 4S, 10; 5S, 8; 4H, 7; 6S/3NT, 4; 5H, 3"

[/hv]

 

Again, those are the author of the problem's suggested scoring, not necessarily the scores used.

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You keep making these claims of what you believe about the scoring without saying why. If 5 usually makes then it deserves a score close to what 4 gets. Do you think spades makes precisely 10 tricks (or less) a huge percentage of the time? Why that amount?
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It seems to me that the odds of 4 making and the odds of 5 making are pretty similar. Basically you need either the spade king onside or some well-behaving heart position. Obviously there are a number of ways to play the heart suit (especially in a 5 contract) and it's not obvious what's best, but I'd estimate that the odds of hearts "behaving" are probably about 50% in either strain. The upshot is that spades normally plays exactly one trick better.

 

Seems to me that 5 (and for that matter 4) make about 75% of the time (either spade finesse or hearts behaving nicely) so I'd give 5 75% of the score for 4 plus 25% of the score for 4. I'd actually give 4 a lower score than Hanoi does, maybe something like:

 

4=10, 5=9, 4=6

 

3NT seems like it pretty much needs the spade finesse (and not clubs 5-3 offside with the top honors split). There is some chance at 10 tricks in 3NT when it makes, but not much chance at 11 tricks. I'd say that 3NT is worse than either spade contract but pretty close to 4, maybe 3NT=4. A 5 contract is almost always failing (and by a trick more than 4), so it's usually a bottom board unless you hit a magic position. I'd put it around 5=1 (i.e. 1/6 of the time you find hearts 3-3 and the spade hook on, and score the same as 4).

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Four spades was easily reached. I started to lower the score for it a good bit, but i decided to leave it at the "nine" I had for it before the contest started.

 

4SS TimG/TgoodwinSr

4SS gnasher/catch22

4SS jdonn/gib

4SS sohcahtoa/east4evil

4SS hanp/jlall

4SS cherdano/rogerclee

4SS wackojack/flycycle

4SS bluecalm/redds

4SS MBodell/Javabean

4SS Karlson/threenobob

4HN peachy/Ig62

3NS awn/elianna

3NS olegru/driver733

6SN Hrothgar/Free

2HN bid_em_up/TylerE

2HN ant590/cryzeejim

 

 

Scores:

4S = 9

4H = 6

3N = 4

2H = 1

6H = 0

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Well, I was wondering if opening 1S on this hand actually HELPED to stay out of slam, like we did. We just went:

 

1-2

2-3

4-P

 

Though in our methods 2 and then 3 shows slam interest, so 4 was the ultimate STFU.

 

If you don't open 1 then you have to guess after P-1-1-2/3 unless you have a tool to show 3 card support.

 

It just seems a little counter-intuitive that overbidding your hand might keep you lower.

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Well, I was wondering if opening 1S on this hand actually HELPED to stay out of slam, like we did. We just went:

 

1-2

2-3

4-P

 

Though in our methods 2 and then 3 shows slam interest, so 4 was the ultimate STFU.

 

If you don't open 1 then you have to guess after P-1-1-2/3 unless you have a tool to show 3 card support.

 

It just seems a little counter-intuitive that overbidding your hand might keep you lower.

I don't understand this... opening 1S definitely helps you find spades but how does it help you stop lower? You might even miss game after 1H-1S-2H-p if both people go low, and I don't think you're ever getting to slam.

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Well, I was wondering if opening 1S on this hand actually HELPED to stay out of slam, like we did. We just went:

 

1-2

2-3

4-P

 

Though in our methods 2 and then 3 shows slam interest, so 4 was the ultimate STFU.

 

If you don't open 1 then you have to guess after P-1-1-2/3 unless you have a tool to show 3 card support.

 

It just seems a little counter-intuitive that overbidding your hand might keep you lower.

I don't understand this... opening 1S definitely helps you find spades but how does it help you stop lower? You might even miss game after 1H-1S-2H-p if both people go low, and I don't think you're ever getting to slam.

I thought that after S opened 1, unless they managed to really turn off North, North might drive to slam. Maybe North being slam interested makes no sense here, though I thought it should at least cross your mind.

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Yeah I think we are having a miscommunication.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable at all for north to think of slam after 1S-2H-2S, and I think your auction was a very good one.

 

I do think it would unreasonable for north to think of slam opposite a passed hand with no heart fit though. It seems like you need a perfecta like AK fifth of spades and the HK. I think after south passes, it's much more easy to create an auction where they don't get to GAME than it is to create an auction where they're thinking of slam.

 

For instance even after 1H 1S 3H 3S, I would just bid 4S with the north hand.

 

So I thought that overbidding early (opening) does not help you stay lower, but it helps you find game and helps you find the right fit (spades).

 

It doesn't really matter I just disagreed with the observation that opening helps you stay low.

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