inquiry Posted September 29, 2010 Report Share Posted September 29, 2010 [hv=n=sq94haqj862daq3c2&s=sajt53h4dk74cq873]133|200|Submitted by Hanoi5 Bidding script: EW stay out of the auction Hanoi comments: "Another hand where supporting with three cards could work, but in this case with 6 hearts it seems out of the question for opener to support spades. After the jump, however, South is definitely in trouble and the easy way out will turn out to be not the best option. 4S, 10; 5S, 8; 4H, 7; 6S/3NT, 4; 5H, 3"[/hv] Again, those are the author of the problem's suggested scoring, not necessarily the scores used. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peachy Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 5S should not be anywhere near the top score. Also the difference between 4S and 4H is not that great. If hearts don't split nicely, there will be trouble in both contracts, not just hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 You keep making these claims of what you believe about the scoring without saying why. If 5♠ usually makes then it deserves a score close to what 4♠ gets. Do you think spades makes precisely 10 tricks (or less) a huge percentage of the time? Why that amount? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 It seems to me that the odds of 4♥ making and the odds of 5♠ making are pretty similar. Basically you need either the spade king onside or some well-behaving heart position. Obviously there are a number of ways to play the heart suit (especially in a 5♠ contract) and it's not obvious what's best, but I'd estimate that the odds of hearts "behaving" are probably about 50% in either strain. The upshot is that spades normally plays exactly one trick better. Seems to me that 5♠ (and for that matter 4♥) make about 75% of the time (either spade finesse or hearts behaving nicely) so I'd give 5♠ 75% of the score for 4♠ plus 25% of the score for 4♥. I'd actually give 4♥ a lower score than Hanoi does, maybe something like: 4♠=10, 5♠=9, 4♥=6 3NT seems like it pretty much needs the spade finesse (and not clubs 5-3 offside with the top honors split). There is some chance at 10 tricks in 3NT when it makes, but not much chance at 11 tricks. I'd say that 3NT is worse than either spade contract but pretty close to 4♥, maybe 3NT=4. A 5♥ contract is almost always failing (and by a trick more than 4♥), so it's usually a bottom board unless you hit a magic position. I'd put it around 5♥=1 (i.e. 1/6 of the time you find hearts 3-3 and the spade hook on, and score the same as 4♥). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayin801 Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 I opened 1♠ light with the South hand, did anyone else do that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 I opened 1♠ light with the South hand, did anyone else do that? Me too. We ended in 4♠ when thankfully partner didn't hang me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgoodwinsr Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 We opened it, too, and ended in 4S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted October 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Four spades was easily reached. I started to lower the score for it a good bit, but i decided to leave it at the "nine" I had for it before the contest started. 4SS TimG/TgoodwinSr4SS gnasher/catch224SS jdonn/gib4SS sohcahtoa/east4evil4SS hanp/jlall4SS cherdano/rogerclee4SS wackojack/flycycle4SS bluecalm/redds4SS MBodell/Javabean4SS Karlson/threenobob4HN peachy/Ig623NS awn/elianna3NS olegru/driver7336SN Hrothgar/Free2HN bid_em_up/TylerE2HN ant590/cryzeejim Scores:4S = 94H = 63N = 42H = 16H = 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JavaBean Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 We opened a spade also; but with our aggressive strong-club style a pass would be out of the question so it's not as useful feedback for you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayin801 Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Well, I was wondering if opening 1S on this hand actually HELPED to stay out of slam, like we did. We just went: 1♠-2♥2♠-3♠4♠-P Though in our methods 2♥ and then 3♠ shows slam interest, so 4♠ was the ultimate STFU. If you don't open 1♠ then you have to guess after P-1♥-1♠-2/3♥ unless you have a tool to show 3 card support. It just seems a little counter-intuitive that overbidding your hand might keep you lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Does 6♠ really deserve a zero? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wackojack Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Opening 1♠ is automatic in our system. 1♠ 3♥ 3 card support good hearts limit Plus3♠ min 4♥ good 6 card suit4♠ no interest pass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Does 6♠ really deserve a zero? I think it probably deserves 2 points. A bit worse than 2 finesses so maybe around 15-20%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Well, I was wondering if opening 1S on this hand actually HELPED to stay out of slam, like we did. We just went: 1♠-2♥2♠-3♠4♠-P Though in our methods 2♥ and then 3♠ shows slam interest, so 4♠ was the ultimate STFU. If you don't open 1♠ then you have to guess after P-1♥-1♠-2/3♥ unless you have a tool to show 3 card support. It just seems a little counter-intuitive that overbidding your hand might keep you lower. I don't understand this... opening 1S definitely helps you find spades but how does it help you stop lower? You might even miss game after 1H-1S-2H-p if both people go low, and I don't think you're ever getting to slam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bid_em_up Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 You might even miss game after 1H-1S-2H-p if both people go low, :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayin801 Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Well, I was wondering if opening 1S on this hand actually HELPED to stay out of slam, like we did. We just went: 1♠-2♥2♠-3♠4♠-P Though in our methods 2♥ and then 3♠ shows slam interest, so 4♠ was the ultimate STFU. If you don't open 1♠ then you have to guess after P-1♥-1♠-2/3♥ unless you have a tool to show 3 card support. It just seems a little counter-intuitive that overbidding your hand might keep you lower. I don't understand this... opening 1S definitely helps you find spades but how does it help you stop lower? You might even miss game after 1H-1S-2H-p if both people go low, and I don't think you're ever getting to slam. I thought that after S opened 1♠, unless they managed to really turn off North, North might drive to slam. Maybe North being slam interested makes no sense here, though I thought it should at least cross your mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Did you read JLOGIC's post at all? I can't follow the discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayin801 Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 I did read his post, maybe I'm just too optimistic with my views on the hands on different auctions, and I was suggesting that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted October 1, 2010 Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 Yeah I think we are having a miscommunication. I don't think it's unreasonable at all for north to think of slam after 1S-2H-2S, and I think your auction was a very good one. I do think it would unreasonable for north to think of slam opposite a passed hand with no heart fit though. It seems like you need a perfecta like AK fifth of spades and the HK. I think after south passes, it's much more easy to create an auction where they don't get to GAME than it is to create an auction where they're thinking of slam. For instance even after 1H 1S 3H 3S, I would just bid 4S with the north hand. So I thought that overbidding early (opening) does not help you stay lower, but it helps you find game and helps you find the right fit (spades). It doesn't really matter I just disagreed with the observation that opening helps you stay low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted October 2, 2010 Report Share Posted October 2, 2010 For instance even after 1H 1S 3H 3S, I would just bid 4S with the north hand. In fact, I think you did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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