inquiry Posted September 29, 2010 Report Share Posted September 29, 2010 [hv=d=s&v=e&n=st82hjt8dj632caj5&s=sk7hakq732dakq7c7]133|200|Scoring: MPsubmitted by: inquiry This was one where you had to get out of hearts and get into diamonds, from South. Top spot, 6♦ S[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awm Posted September 29, 2010 Report Share Posted September 29, 2010 I'm never really sure what the right way is to score these kinds of hands. Let's ignore unlikely positions such as diamonds 5-0 and spades 7-1 which beat any slam. In this case 6♥ makes 50% of the time (spade ace onside). How does 6♦ do? Well it's not quite cold... for example hearts 4-0 or hearts 3-1 with the short hearts holding four diamonds both seem to cause issues. Let's say that 6♦ makes 90% of the time, which seems fairly generous. It seems that: 50% of the time, 6♥ makes and is the top spot45% of the time, 6♦ makes and 6♥ fails, so 6♦ is the top spot5% of the time, both slams fail and it's a push board (game contracts are top spot). Assuming that the entire field will get to slam I'd rather be in 6♥! Of course, if you have a lot of people playing in game, then 6♦ is much better because you get a near-top when it makes (even if 6♥ also would make) by beating all the game bidders. Yet I'd expect that in a strong field most people will be in some slam or another. At IMPs it's obvious that 6♦ is best, because you just want to be in the slam that makes most often and the extra IMP or two from 6♥ when both slams make is irrelevant. But at MP? I dunno, seems to depend on the field strength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted September 29, 2010 Report Share Posted September 29, 2010 Adam, we are the field. I thought we agreed last round to just take the exact ratios of pairs in the bbf field who bid game/slam and use those on a hand like this. This hand was funny for gib and me. We started 2♣ 2♦ 2♥ and gib bid 3♦ natural! (best player ever) The problem is this is a known bug with gib since he plays 3♣ artificial here and doesn't know he can bid a natural 2NT. He makes this 3♦ bid frequently on a 3 card suit, and I'm not sure but maybe even a doubleton. Also if I raise to 4♦ he doesn't play his 4♥ bid as natural (I think? Anyway I wasn't confident he does) So raising diamonds now might not be a fit and would preclude me from ever playing in hearts. I might have guessed to do it anyway (4-4 fit in a minor in a bidding contest) but I just rebid hearts and played 4♥. I'm such a hand hog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 6H should be slightly better than 4H since they might lead the SA imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayin801 Posted September 30, 2010 Report Share Posted September 30, 2010 6H should be slightly better than 4H since they might lead the SA imo. Or there could be a club miracle, just so long as it's played from the South. I butchered a strong club auction here and landed in 4♥ thinking we were off 2 aces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted October 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2010 I can agree that 6HS is better than 6DN, and all the pairs that found the diamond slam found it from north. 4H was given slighly less than 6 on the premise that someone would bid 6D as South. Oh well. 6HS hanp/jlall6HS bid_em_up/TylerE6HS bluecalm/redds6HS ant590/cryzeejim6HS peachy/Ig626HN Hrothgar/Free6HN olegru/driver7336HS awn/elianna6HS Karlson/threenobob4HS TimG/TgoodwinSr4HS sohcahtoa/east4evil4HS jdonn/gib4HN gnasher/catch224HS MBodell/Javabean6DN wackojack/flycycle6DN cherdano/rogerclee 6DS = 116H = 66DN = 44H = 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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