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Round 3 board 3


inquiry

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I'm never really sure what the right way is to score these kinds of hands.

 

Let's ignore unlikely positions such as diamonds 5-0 and spades 7-1 which beat any slam. In this case 6 makes 50% of the time (spade ace onside). How does 6 do? Well it's not quite cold... for example hearts 4-0 or hearts 3-1 with the short hearts holding four diamonds both seem to cause issues. Let's say that 6 makes 90% of the time, which seems fairly generous. It seems that:

 

50% of the time, 6 makes and is the top spot

45% of the time, 6 makes and 6 fails, so 6 is the top spot

5% of the time, both slams fail and it's a push board (game contracts are top spot).

 

Assuming that the entire field will get to slam I'd rather be in 6! Of course, if you have a lot of people playing in game, then 6 is much better because you get a near-top when it makes (even if 6 also would make) by beating all the game bidders. Yet I'd expect that in a strong field most people will be in some slam or another.

 

At IMPs it's obvious that 6 is best, because you just want to be in the slam that makes most often and the extra IMP or two from 6 when both slams make is irrelevant. But at MP? I dunno, seems to depend on the field strength.

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Adam, we are the field. I thought we agreed last round to just take the exact ratios of pairs in the bbf field who bid game/slam and use those on a hand like this.

 

This hand was funny for gib and me. We started 2 2 2 and gib bid 3 natural! (best player ever) The problem is this is a known bug with gib since he plays 3 artificial here and doesn't know he can bid a natural 2NT. He makes this 3 bid frequently on a 3 card suit, and I'm not sure but maybe even a doubleton. Also if I raise to 4 he doesn't play his 4 bid as natural (I think? Anyway I wasn't confident he does) So raising diamonds now might not be a fit and would preclude me from ever playing in hearts. I might have guessed to do it anyway (4-4 fit in a minor in a bidding contest) but I just rebid hearts and played 4. I'm such a hand hog.

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I can agree that 6HS is better than 6DN, and all the pairs that found the diamond slam found it from north. 4H was given slighly less than 6 on the premise that someone would bid 6D as South. Oh well.

 

6HS hanp/jlall

6HS bid_em_up/TylerE

6HS bluecalm/redds

6HS ant590/cryzeejim

6HS peachy/Ig62

6HN Hrothgar/Free

6HN olegru/driver733

6HS awn/elianna

6HS Karlson/threenobob

4HS TimG/TgoodwinSr

4HS sohcahtoa/east4evil

4HS jdonn/gib

4HN gnasher/catch22

4HS MBodell/Javabean

6DN wackojack/flycycle

6DN cherdano/rogerclee

 

 

6DS = 11

6H = 6

6DN = 4

4H = 5

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