No chance!

[NickRW]

This isn't a beginner hand, but I think the intermediates might like it - if only for the lesson in not giving up.

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=skjhtxxdqt8xxcqjx&s=saqt98xhq9xd9xcak]133|200|Scoring: MP

South is in 4♠ after an unopposed auction. Lead is small ♠[/hv]

 

You see at once that you have duplication in ♣s and you're off 4 or 5 tricks in the reds - but at least they haven't begun with a red suit. Fortunately a lot of other pairs will probably be in the same contract and facing the same problem. Do you have any legitimate (or indeed illegitimate) chance?

 

To add a little spice, your opps are a successful tournament pair who play fairly regularly together and the best pair sitting the opposite way in the room - so it would be a feather in your cap if you can put one over against them.

 

Adv+, unless you feel otherwise, I don't think hiding answers serves much purpose on this one - the discussion is the thing.

[bucky]

For now I don't see anything better than cashing ♣AK, back to dummy with a trump, and pitch a diamond on ♣Q.

 

Assuming all following suit so far, I have a choice to make on next trick. I can either play a heart or a diamond. Both will win the contract if East started with ♥AK tight and exactly 2 trumps. Playing a heart will also be the winning line if East started with AJ/KJ tight and only 2 trumps. Playing a diamond will be right if East started with ♥AK tight and has one more trump left. Theoretically speaking the contract can be made if West started with ♥AK tight, but in that case I suspect a different lead would have been made. In any case the chance of making this contract is quite slim. At the table I'd probably hold my breath and play a small H from dummy.

[Tola18]

Proceeding Buckys analysis. Play a heart - but which and why? We have both the 10 and the 9. I think it may be seen as really a finesse against the kn - which makes it 50% chance. Somewhat less - there IS danger of one ruff... But clearly better than having the AK grouped on one hand and still hoping for no ruff.

 

 

Thus, as long as the heart kn is right for the finesse, and no ruff, it is only 2 hearts losers and one diamond loser which are unevitable with normal def.

[Little Kid]

If the ♥9 is taken by the Ace or King, how are you getting back to dummy for another ♥ lead?

 

At MPs I would probably just try for AK♥ tight onside after cashing the ♣s and not do something crazy for a zero, especially if these are the best opps in the field. At IMPs I would win in dummy on the first trick and play a ♥ to the 9, hoping for a defensive error.

[bucky]

Proceeding Buckys analysis. Play a heart - but which and why? We have both the 10 and the 9. I think it may be seen as really a finesse against the kn - which makes it 50% chance. Somewhat less - there IS danger of one ruff... But clearly better than having the AK grouped on one hand and still hoping for no ruff.

 

 

Thus, as long as the heart kn is right for the finesse, and no ruff, it is only 2 hearts losers and one diamond loser which are unevitable with normal def.

The problem is that after you unblock ♣AK, you can only get to dummy once with the second trump. So it is far less than 50% chance. You need to fine RHO with AK/AJ/KJ tight in hearts.

[NickRW]

Well, right. I unblocked ♣AK, crossed to dummy with the 2nd round of trumps, ditched a diamond on the ♣Q and led a low heart to the 9 which forced the ace from LHO who got off lead with a safe club. So far so good, ruffed back in, took the last spade out and led a diamond - which lead to LHO popping the other red ace. Now she had no black cards left and probably could have worked out that a heart now would be misdefence - but didn't - and I was home.

 

Nothing spectacular at all - just not giving up and somewhat preying on the fact that even quite good opps can make a mistake in defence.

[Simplicity]

Well, right.  I unblocked ♣AK, crossed to dummy with the 2nd round of trumps, ditched a diamond on the ♣Q and led a low heart to the 9 which forced the ace from LHO who got off lead with a safe club.  So far so good, ruffed back in, took the last spade out and led a diamond - which lead to LHO popping the other red ace.  Now she had no black cards left and probably could have worked out that a heart now would be misdefence - but didn't - and I was home.

 

Nothing spectacular at all - just not giving up and somewhat preying on the fact that even quite good opps can make a mistake in defence.

I'd say LHO flying ♦A and playing heart is pretty spectacularly poor.

 

Will say noone mentioned the genuine chances of ♥AJ or ♥KJ on the right or of ♠xx♥Jx on the left (well either side but LHO would have led her AK).

[NickRW]

I'd say LHO flying ♦A and playing heart is pretty spectacularly poor.

Well, perhaps fair comment - but we've all done as badly at some point - and most of us still do from time to time.

 

Perhaps I would have done better with this b/i thread to couch it as a defensive problem at the point the ♦9 is led.

 

Nick

[billw55]

I'd say LHO flying ♦A and playing heart is pretty spectacularly poor.

Well, perhaps fair comment - but we've all done as badly at some point - and most of us still do from time to time.

 

Perhaps I would have done better with this b/i thread to couch it as a defensive problem at the point the ♦9 is led.

 

Nick

I can at least dream up a reason to go up with the ♦A: west could be playing declarer for ♦K9x and trying prevent an entry to dummy for another finesse against the ♥J (declarer could conceivably have only five spades). The bidding might tell whether this is at all possible.

 

But then, to continue a heart makes no sense at all ... so I think it's just an error.

 

 

edit: I guess with ♦K9x declarer would more likely pitch a heart on the third club. So maybe there is no reason to hop up at all.