pass with this defensive raise?

[Chamaco]

My concern about double is that partner will play me for more. Four clubs is not enough for htis double, as you force partner to bid at the three level, 6 clubs ar emore likely (especially if it doesn not promise a heart tolerance).

 

--- cut ---

 

As for if you raise partner. After a 2/1 sandwich bid, he knows you are playing him for 6 hearts, so 6 hearts will not be enough to get him to bid 4♥.

Thx a lot Ben, these two were the pieces of information that were not quite clear to me.

 

1) I was playing Dbl as "cardshowing" 8+, with only some tolerance guaranteed for clubs, and not as long clubs.

I suppose this is more a subject for ptship agreement

 

2) more importantly, I igored that the most reasonable requirement for a sandwich 2H was a 6 bagger.

 

 

Thanlks again, these discussions are always VERY helpful ! :D

[Guest Jlall]

you want to pass w/w at MP? lol..lets consider all cases and assume pard rates to have 5.7 hearts, and the opps have 8 spades (16.7 trumps before adjustments).

 

2S makes and 3H is down 1 (16 total trumps)...3H is right

2S makes and 3H is down 2 AND they dont double (15 trumps)...3H is right

2S is down 1 and 3H makes (16 total trumps)...3H is right

2S is down 2 and 3H makes (15 total trumps)...3H is right

2S is down 1 and 3H is down 1 (15 total trumps)...pass is right

2S makes 3H is down 2 and they double (15 trumps)...pass is right.. what is the likelihood they can double us and beat it 2? trumps will almost certainly be 4-1 offisde. BUT, if trumps are 4-1 it will be RHO that has 4, which gives lho a stiff. He will often bid in front of his partner (3S) with a stiff heart. if lho has 4 hearts, he also has 5 spades, which gives them 9 trumps. also a double by LHO will likely be "maximal".

WHENEVER WE PUSH THEM TO 3S...3H is right...remember the opps are eager to bid white/white at MP, especially if they think we have NINE hearts.

 

This is all theory. In practice, 3H will work even better. 2S is a hard contract to defend, and pard may make a poor lead, or you may not find the best defense. similarly, against 3H they may make the wrong lead or misdefend. Declarer has an advantage over the defense in low level partscores. Support with support ESPECIALLY at MP w/w...it pays to bid, and passing aims at a very very small target

[pclayton]

you want to pass w/w at MP? lol..lets consider all cases and assume pard rates to have 5.7 hearts, and the opps have 8 spades (16.7 trumps before adjustments).

 

2S makes and 3H is down 1 (16 total trumps)...3H is right

2S makes and 3H is down 2 AND they dont double (15 trumps)...3H is right

2S is down 1 and 3H makes (16 total trumps)...3H is right

2S is down 2 and 3H makes (15 total trumps)...3H is right

2S is down 1 and 3H is down 1 (15 total trumps)...pass is right

2S makes 3H is down 2 and they double (15 trumps)...pass is right.. what is the likelihood they can double us and beat it 2? trumps will almost certainly be 4-1 offisde. BUT, if trumps are 4-1 it will be RHO that has 4, which gives lho a stiff. He will often bid in front of his partner (3S) with a stiff heart. if lho has 4 hearts, he also has 5 spades, which gives them 9 trumps. also a double by LHO will likely be "maximal".

WHENEVER WE PUSH THEM TO 3S...3H is right...remember the opps are eager to bid white/white at MP, especially if they think we have NINE hearts.

 

This is all theory. In practice, 3H will work even better. 2S is a hard contract to defend, and pard may make a poor lead, or you may not find the best defense. similarly, against 3H they may make the wrong lead or misdefend. Declarer has an advantage over the defense in low level partscores. Support with support ESPECIALLY at MP w/w...it pays to bid, and passing aims at a very very small target

Uncharacteristically I have sat quiet throughout most of this discussion. I think Ben's estimate of 6.3 hearts in pard's hands is really optimistic. Justin's mark of 5.7 seems more accurate to me, and it might be lower than that. When pard holds the stiff spade, and WE KNOW HE DOES, he will strain to get involved over 1♠ with just about any reason to, if only to take the pressure off us in the balance chair. If pard holds the void, reopening will be automatic, but so will the opponents decision to take the push to 3. Furthermore, when pard holds six, the hand frequently becomes a direct 3♥ call, especially holding a stiff spade.

 

The opponents will frequently crack 3♥ if they believe 2♠ is making and 3♠ isn't, if only to try to win the board back.

 

Initially, my gut tells me that passing is correct, but let look at a few example hands:

 

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sxhaqtxxdqxxckxxx&w=skjtxhkxxdxxxctxx&e=saxxxhxxdktxxcaqx&s=sq98xhjxxdaj9cjxx]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Looks like 140 our way, assuming the north hand gets tapped 3 times. +50 in 2 spades. 16 trump and 16 total tricks.

 

 

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sxhaqtxxdqxxckxxx&w=skjtxhkxxdxxxctxx&e=saxxxhxxdktxxcaqx&s=sq98xhjxxdaj9cjxx]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

2♠ is getting pummeled, likely -2. I think a reopening dbl with this shape and honor dispersion is mandatory by North. 140 in 3 hearts. 17 trump but only 15 tricks.

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sxhaqtxxdqxxckxxx&w=skjtxhkxxdxxxctxx&e=saxxxhxxdktxxcaqx&s=sq98xhjxxdaj9cjxx]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

A likely +50 in 2♠. 3♥ depends on finding the 10♣. Pard might reopen over 2♠, but I don't think its automatic either. 16 trump, 15 or 16 tricks.

 

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sxhaqtxxdqxxckxxx&w=skjtxhkxxdxxxctxx&e=saxxxhxxdktxxcaqx&s=sq98xhjxxdaj9cjxx]399|300|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

2♠ may or not be making with best defense. 3♥ is -1. 17 trump, 15 or 16 tricks. I would not mind a 3♥ call by pard in the sandwich seat.

 

Note that in every single example the total tricks were equal to, 1 or 2 less than the total trump. The horrible ODR in the South hand should warn of this condition.

 

What does these hands prove? Its hard to tell what can happen on any given day, but I think its clear that the decision is a lot closer than some believe. I'm still passing, but I have more sympathy for 3♥ after looking at these hands.