3NT

[gnasher]

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=s853h95dakt4cat53&s=skq6hk632dq72ckq9]133|200|Scoring: IMP

                         pass

1NT 2♣(1) 3♠(2) pass

3NT

 

(1) Spades + another suit, either suit can be longer

(2) A 3NT bid without a spade stop

 

Lead: ♠4 (4th best)

[/hv]

East plays ♠J at trick one. Plan the play.

[JLOGIC]

Win it CK, DQ, DA, if all follow, club to the 9.

 

Main hope is LHO (54)31 or 5341(w HA).

 

If LHO is (54)22 or 5521 and doesnt have Jx of clubs I am in the game as long as I can endplay him. Sometimes I will have it on force sometimes they will mess up their discards.

 

If LHO has a stiff diamond, I will play lho for (54)13 and go for the endplay. Maybe if they are 5314 I will be able to read it.

 

If they have 5 clubs or 5 diamonds it will show up obv.

[gnasher]

Win it CK, DK, DA, if all follow, club to the 9.

Did you mean to block the diamonds?

[bd71]

...I am in the game as long as I can endplay him.

Help me out...how specifically will you try to endplay him?

 

This is what I was puzzling on this hand...if he has Jxxx in diamonds, you can endplay him but sacrificed a diamond trick to do so. But if you have to endplay him in hearts, aren't you reliant on him having a really fortuitous holding (A/AQ/AQJ if diamonds is his second suit. AQJT/AQJTx if hearts is his second suit) to succeed?

[JLOGIC]

Win it CK, DK, DA, if all follow, club to the 9.

Did you mean to block the diamonds?

Nope I meant DQ DK, that way I find out if LHO has 5 diamonds quickly (or a stiff) obv, fixed.

[Phil]

Win it CK, DK, DA, if all follow, club to the 9.

Did you mean to block the diamonds?

He probably meant QD, AD. Can't see what good it would do to lock ourselves out of dummy.

 

Still, even QD, AD gives us a nasty guess if a diamond comes back while clubs are blocked.

 

I think I like ♠K, ♣K, ♦ to A and hook the club. If this lives I feel pretty good. Continue ♣Q, ♦K (assuming LHO shows, if RHO shows, endplay LHO in diamonds), cash club, and spade covering RHO's card.

[bd71]

...and spade covering RHO's card.

Whenever LHO has 5 spades, aren't you down now (4 spades and A♥)?

[JLOGIC]

I think I like ♠K, ♣K, ♦ to A and hook the club. If this lives I feel pretty good. Continue ♣Q, ♦K (assuming LHO shows, if RHO shows, endplay LHO in diamonds), cash club, and spade covering RHO's card.

This means you are hooking the club through RHO even if LHO has a stiff diamond. That doesn't seem like a good idea, and is why you should cash 2 diamonds first.

 

This also means if LHO has 5422 with Jx of both minors he has a safe diamond exit and you might go down whereas if you had stripped both minors you would have had LHO endplayed. Obv a very minor thing but something nonetheless.

 

I don't understand your concern about cashing 2 diamonds first, could you elaborate?

[Phil]

...and spade covering RHO's card.

Whenever LHO has 5 spades, aren't you down now (4 spades and A♥)?

Well, LHO will have to make 3 discards.

 

If it appears he has 4♠, 1♥ left, I'll play a small heart.

[Phil]

I think I like ♠K, ♣K, ♦ to A and hook the club. If this lives I feel pretty good. Continue ♣Q, ♦K (assuming LHO shows, if RHO shows, endplay LHO in diamonds), cash club, and spade covering RHO's card.

This means you are hooking the club through RHO even if LHO has a stiff diamond. That doesn't seem like a good idea, and is why you should cash 2 diamonds first.

 

This also means if LHO has 5422 with Jx of both minors he has a safe diamond exit and you might go down whereas if you had stripped both minors you would have had LHO endplayed. Obv a very minor thing but something nonetheless.

 

I don't understand your concern about cashing 2 diamonds first, could you elaborate?

My initial thought about not cashing two diamonds is if the club loses, life sucks if LHO plays 3rd diamond. If I misguess then I'm locked off the board.

 

You never mentioned what happens is LHO follows to two diamonds, you lose the club hook and a diamond comes back.

 

It looks right to hook the diamond now, since LHO has at least 3♦ + 2♣, and competing with 4=4=3=2 is kind of weird. Playing LHO for 5=2=4=2 seems right at this point. I can dump the blocking club on the long diamond :P

 

You raise a good point about stripping LHO's exit cards when he 2-2 in the minors.

[JLOGIC]

Hi Phil,

 

Yeah I didnt mention LHO winning the club and firing back a diamond because that seemed impossible (I am not playing for 4432 as a possiblity!) If it happened I would assume LHO had 5242 with diamonds as a second suit.

 

I think it is very important to cash 2 diamonds so that we know if LHO has a stiff or not. Hooking a club into LHO after he has only 1 diamond seems like a disaster (with 5512 he would often lead a heart on this auction when partner doesnt double spades and we specifically show a spade stopper, and both of his majors are headed by the ace, so I think if he has 1 diamond hes extremely likely to hold 5413 or 5314...we'll have to guess it!).

[Finch]

At the table, Jallerton and Gunnar Hallberg both took a club finesse without cashing two diamonds first, however the auction was different: at both of their tables the 2C overcall specifically showed the majors and responder's 3NT bid had no stop/non-stop inferences.

 

Does that change your line?

 

I asked Jallerton why he didn't cash the diamonds and he said that even if LHO had a singleton it wasn't clear not to finesse in clubs. I'm not sure I agree with him, but obviously it depends on how likely LHO is to be 5-5 in the majors.

[JLOGIC]

At the table, Jallerton and Gunnar Hallberg both took a club finesse without cashing two diamonds first, however the auction was different: at both of their tables the 2C overcall specifically showed the majors and responder's 3NT bid had no stop/non-stop inferences. 

 

Does that change your line?

 

I asked Jallerton why he didn't cash the diamonds and he said that even if LHO had a singleton it wasn't clear not to finesse in clubs. I'm not sure I agree with him, but obviously it depends on how likely LHO is to be 5-5 in the majors.

Obviously on this auction my inference that LHO would lead a heart from 5-5 in the majors is much stronger since RHO had a chance to double spades, and we specifically showed a spade stopper.

 

That being said, if LHO has 5 hearts to the ace something, and 5 spades to the AT(9?), which would he be more likely to lead? AQJxx of hearts would def lead a heart, and I think AQxxx is an automatic heart lead (very likely to set up your suit, just need Kx with someone and 3 with partner, or the jack with partner, and the king with partner might make it run etc etc). AJxxx is not as clear, but I still think a heart is better just hoping to set up your better major. With AT he would prefer spades if his spades were better (AT9), so I guess most of those he leads a spade, but that is unlikely as it gives RHO QJ doubleton specifically so it's only 1 combo.

 

So I still think with 5-5 LHO would very often lead a heart rather than a spade even after 1N (2C) 3N. This makes playing for the drop in clubs clearly right imo.

Edited September 13, 2010 by JLOGIC

[Finch]

Sorry I may not have been clear.

 

The auction at both these other tables was 1NT (2C majors) 3NT. No inference about double, or not, of a 3S bid.

[JLOGIC]

Sorry I may not have been clear.

 

The auction at both these other tables was 1NT (2C majors) 3NT. No inference about double, or not, of a 3S bid.

Yes I know...maybe I wasn't clear.

 

I was just saying that on this auction it's clearer (because of the inferences available), but even on your auction cashing 2 diamonds planning to play for 3-3 clubs is better because with most holdings that LHO can have in hearts, he would prefer a heart lead to a spade lead even blind since his hearts will always be better/more desirable to lead from (certainly true with AQJxx and AQxxx, debatable with AJxxx I suppose but that is usually AJTxx which I think is def better than AT9xx).

 

So 5512 should be heavily discounted because I think like 80 % of the time LHO has that on YOUR auction 1N 2C 3N, he would lead a heart given his possible holdings, and 100 % of the time hes 5413 he would lead a spade.

[JLOGIC]

Some things that should be pointed out also:

 

-Some LHOs might pass with 5413 and would always bid with 5512, but I feel that good opps w/r will bid with both majors and the aces almost always. This clue makes hooking the club better even if LHO has a stiff D though.

 

-When LHO is 5413 we survive hooking the club half the time anyways because RHO might have Jxx. When LHO is 5512 we gain when they have Jx but this is only 33 % of the holdings. This argues for hooking the club when LHO has a stiff D.

 

Still I feel very strongly that LHO SHOULD lead their stronger major here with both aces just playing to set up a major rather than have some passive considerations. This means LHO SHOULD (imo) only lead a spade with AT9xx of spades and AT8xx of hearts, or half the time they have AT8xx of both majors. That means almost always LHO is leading a heart. Of course LHO may not think like me, but since they are good opps and this is a normal way of thinking I think it is a very strong inference, and blows every other inference out of the water.

[gnasher]

LHO had AT742 AJ84 5 J84, so Justin's line works.

 

This was from the English Premier League. In the first division, everyone played 3NT from South. Four out of eight declarers went down, which seems a surprisingly high proportion.