Plan for this grand?

[dkharty]

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sa95hk974dak96caj&s=sk74haqj865dq2cq8]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

You are playing 7♥ after an uninterrupted auction. The lead is a low heart; trumps are 2-1, LHO having 2. What is your plan?

 

I am particularly interested in your decision process regarding club finesse vs. double squeeze, and what discovery process you use to help make the decision.

[Dirk Kuijt]

Interesting hand. We have a 6-4 fit, and find the outstanding trumps 2-2.

[dkharty]

Interesting hand. We have a 6-4 fit, and find the outstanding trumps 2-2.

Oops :) I'll fix it...

[manudude03]

My gut says double squeeze is better, not sure how much better though (if at all).

 

I can play off all the trumps discarding a spade and a club. This also has the extra advantage that I make on some layouts where the club finesse was working all along (give East JTxxx x Txxx xxx). The main disadvantage of course is that I may have to guess the end position.

 

Depending on who discards what, I may be able to decide which squeeze to persue. Cashing 3 rounds of diamonds would complete the standard double squeeze (the ♣A would drop a blank K if that guard was removed. Cashing the ♣A and 2 spades ending in hand instead establishes a squeeze against either opponent guarding both minors.

[gnasher]

A priori, an automatic double squeeze would be better than the finesse, because if the hand with the shorter diamonds is more than 50% to hold ♣K. However, unless diamonds are 5-2 I don't think there's any way to avoid having to guess who's guarding what.

 

I play a third round of trumps, because I can. Then I cash the top diamonds.

 

If RHO shows out on the third diamond, I can play the double squeeze and I know its good odds, so I throw ♣Q, cash ♣A, and run trumps, throwing a spade on the penultimate one.

 

If RHO follows to the third round of diamonds, I'll probably just take a club finesse.

[gnasher]

If RHO shows out on the third diamond, I can play the double squeeze and I know its good odds, so I throw ♣Q, cash ♣A, and run trumps, throwing a spade on the penultimate one.

Actually, there's no need to be that committal. I can throw a spade and cash all but one trump before deciding. But I've more or less decided already anyway.

[dkharty]

I play a third round of trumps, because I can.  Then I cash the top diamonds.

 

If RHO shows out on the third diamond, I can play the double squeeze and I know its good odds, so I throw ♣Q, cash ♣A, and run trumps, throwing a spade on the penultimate one.

 

If RHO follows to the third round of diamonds, I'll probably just take a club finesse.

Both opps will throw clubs on the trump, and on the play of the diamonds LHO plays 4-5-10, RHO plays 3-7-8.

[lmilne]

My first instinct is to play 5 rounds of trumps (to try to induce some to discard a diamond or a spade from 3, followed my 3 rounds of diamonds, the ace of clubs, and a spade to the king, to come down to

[hv=n=sa9hdtc&s=s7h5dcq]133|200|[/hv]

 

which seems to preserve all squeeze chances.

 

Now on the play of the last heart, we pitch the diamond (unless it becomes high!).

This wins if:

1) West has 4+ diamonds and East has the ♣K (double squeeze);

2) West has 4+ diamonds and also 5+ spades (positional);

3) Either opponent has both 5+ spades and the ♣K (automatic).

 

I'm having a bit of trouble thinking about all the possibilities - also, say diamonds are 4-3, do we get an indication (restricted choice) about who has the other diamond honour? Trying to get better at double squeezes and math :)

 

Edit: Also cashing the ace of clubs seems kind of counter-intuitive now that I look at this again. Not sure.

[lmilne]

Having thought about this a bit more, it's frustrating because the contract is cold on any layout, we just have to pick which one to play for (I think - maybe there is a line I'm missing).

 

1) West has the ♣K - finesse;

2) East has the ♣K and 4+♦ - auto squeeze;

3) East has the ♣K, West 4+♦ - auto squeeze if West has 5+S, double squeeze if spades are 4-3.

 

Now someone better at squeezes (and logic) than me can work out which line picks up the most (and more likely) combination of these.

[Mbodell]

Having thought about this a bit more, it's frustrating because the contract is cold on any layout, we just have to pick which one to play for (I think - maybe there is a line I'm missing).

 

1) West has the ♣K - finesse;

2) East has the ♣K and 4+♦ - auto squeeze;

3) East has the ♣K, West 4+♦ - auto squeeze if West has 5+S, double squeeze if spades are 4-3.

 

Now someone better at squeezes (and logic) than me can work out which line picks up the most (and more likely) combination of these.

Basic logic suggests 1> 3 > 2, no? Given we don't know anything asymmetric about the suits 1 is 50%. 2 is less than 3 and less than 50% because it requires the hand with long diamonds (less spaces) also to have a specific club card and starts of with the 50% problem of East having the K.