8 ever, 11 ....

[hanp]

Vul against not, teams.

 

J10xxxx

Kxx

A

AQx

 

AQxxx

QJx

KJxxx

-

 

Starting with the south hand, the bidding goes:

 

1S - (3C) - 4C - (5C)

5D - (p) - 5H - (p)

6H - (p) - 6S - all pass

 

I was polite enough not to ask what 6H meant, so don't ask me either, I don't know.

 

The tall gentleman on your left leads the club jack. You stick in the queen and the much taller gentleman on your right plays small. When you play the spade jack RHO follows with a small spade. Your play?

[gwnn]

small.

[phil_20686]

I'll play the ace. The 5c bid to me suggests some offensive strength, probably a singleton, and its unlikely lho would have chosen 3c if he had 6 in a red suit.

 

On could also argue that rho rates to be longer in spades than lho, but I think the above inference is stronger.

 

Finally, if lho had a void and 7 clubs hand he would definitely have bid more than 3 clubs. He could be 6430 with a void, but, I would guess that of hands with a void 7 clubs is more likely than 6430 precisely. (i would rule out 6-5 as they would bid unusual/micheals/hearts).

[Hanoi5]

I'd play the Ace

[fred]

Ten once...

 

xx

xx

xx

AKxxxxx

 

AKx

AKx

AKxx

J109

 

Contract: 7NT

 

Seriously off topic, but upon seeing the subject line of the actual topic, I couldn't resist :)

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[jdonn]

I drop, maybe I would have noticed RHO get excited with the heart ace and spade king.

[Phil]

I'm really trying not to use Fred's suit combo calculator, or anything else for these problems. If I step on my

 

Clubs appear to be 7=3 or 6=4. In a vacuum, the spade finesse is 50-50, but the drop is 13/25 to succeed. With 6-4 clubs, the spade drop just became an 7 to 8 underdog right? That's about a 46.7 / 53.3 ratio. At 7/3 clubs, the drop is a 4:3 dog - 43.2 / 56.8. SO here, the finesse is better.

 

I'll ignore psychological lines to finesse or not to finesse. Is holding the stiff ♠K alone enough of a consideration for LHO not to lead from a broken club suit which is less appealing? Presumably he has nothing in hearts, and possibly nothing in diamonds, so I don't know.

 

However, I have to consider the drop combined with bringing down ♦Qxx in LHO's. I have the entries to try this - ♠ to A (LHO blows), ♦]A, ruff club, ♦K ditching one heart, ♦ ruff, ruff good ♣A, ♦J and good ♦ pitching dummy's last heart.

 

4-3 diamonds are 62%. ♦Qxx in RHO is 13.5% (I think - half of 3/7 x 62%?).

 

13.5% x 53.3 =~7%+46.7; drop became better. Its slightly better with 7-3 clubs too I think, but oh so damn close.

 

I know that because there are less spaces in LHO's that this 13.5% number rates to get smaller, but I don't know the extent, but it seems like it pulls the drop into the sub-50 range.

 

I'll go check my math now on a calculator and see how I actually did. :)

[hanp]

The finesse is not 50-50 Phil, but your calculator-free decimals are impressive.

 

How likely do people think that clubs are 6-4 vs 7-3? I think 6-4 is about twelve times as likely as 7-3, am I way off?

[Phil]

The finesse is not 50-50 Phil, but your calculator-free decimals are impressive.

 

How likely do people think that clubs are 6-4 vs 7-3? I think 6-4 is about twelve times as likely as 7-3, am I way off?

I hope you aren't implying I cheated HanP :) Even I can figure out the decimal equivalent of 1/7th in my head. Of course its easier to maintain your train of though as you type instead of ATT.

[hanp]

I didn't think you cheated to be honest. There's a t missing though.

[Fluffy]

LHO will not bid 3♣with ♠K ♥A and ♣KJ10, not all the time at least, so playing a heart and finding ♥ Ace on LHO's hands increases the finese chances a lot.

 

I didn't try it, so to be consistent with my previous line I will just finese anyway.

[phil_20686]

LHO will not bid 3♣with ♠K ♥A and ♣KJ10, not all the time at least, so playing a heart and finding ♥ Ace on LHO's hands increases the finese chances a lot.

 

I didn't try it, so to be consistent with my previous line I will just finese anyway.

good defene will duck 100% of the time, If you play again maybe they will cash the ace and give lho a ruff when k is stiff on your left.

[aguahombre]

Hey, Fred: Did you gain a couple IMPS or lose a ton of them in 7NT with the unblock issue?

[gwnn]

pretty sure that was not a real hand.

[gnasher]

LHO will not bid 3♣with ♠K ♥A and ♣KJ10, not all the time at least, so playing a heart and finding ♥ Ace on LHO's hands increases the finese chances a lot.

 

I didn't try it, so to be consistent with my previous line I will just finese anyway.

good defene will duck 100% of the time, If you play again maybe they will cash the ace and give lho a ruff when k is stiff on your left.

I play a heart, in the hope that I'm playing against good defenders. Then I'll throw my other two hearts on ♣AQ

[aguahombre]

pretty sure that was not a real hand.

Sorry, forgot the emoticon, again.

[gwnn]

As a general rule, I assume unfunny remarks were meant to be taken seriously. :)

[aguahombre]

As a general rule, I assume unfunny remarks were meant to be taken seriously. :)

I will check with you in the future for approval.

[tgoodwinsr]

This was a real hand:

 

--

[tgoodwinsr]

The real hand I was about to post before I aborted (above):

 

-- AKxxx

QJxx xx

AKQ9xxxx Txx

Q KTx

 

We bid, with East dealer:

 

-- 1S

2D 2S

3H 3NT

P

 

and now North doubled! I think he was long in spades and very short in diamonds, with the ace of clubs and a high heart honor, and thought maybe we wouldn't be able to find nine tricks. I also think he thought South would have enough diamonds to figure out that the double wasn't for a diamond lead.

 

Wrong! South led the diamond Jack from Jack and one, and that greatly simplified the play of the hand. Looking at the hand later, we speculated about what would have happened if South had led his low diamond, not the Jack. It appears that declarer should duck this to guarantee his contract (by making sure he could get to his own hand with the ten of diamonds while still having a diamond left to get back to dummy). Further speculation: what if the diamonds had been one-one, with the Jack in North? Now it seems that declarer should still duck a low-diamond lead, letting North score his Jack but guaranteeing the contract. If that had happened, we would have a story to tell about losing a trick in a suit of AKQxxxxx opposite Txx, and thereby making a contract!

[hanp]

good defene will duck 100% of the time

really? ;)

[JLOGIC]

Why would I play a spade at trick 2?

 

Sorry for that comment but it is so obvious, you are asking us to guess before we get any information about the hand whatsoever, and before we get a chance to let them duck the heart ace. If you get more information before making these guesses, you will get them right more often.

[hanp]

Fair enough, if you play a heart, RHO will hop up with the ace and play a diamond.

 

I didn't give it as such because declarer immediately played a spade, perhaps planning to keep open the option of pitching on the diamonds if the spades didn't split. More likely, he didn't think until he had to play from hand at trick 2.

[JLOGIC]

I didn't give it as such because declarer immediately played a spade, perhaps planning to keep open the option of pitching on the diamonds if the spades didn't split.

This might be a good enough reason, if RHO has Kx of spades and 4 small diamonds we make after going up with the ace. Then again if we're going to hook the spade anyways that does not make much sense.

 

Fair enough, if you play a heart, RHO will hop up with the ace and play a diamond.

 

This should give us some information since playing back a heart in case partner can ruff is rather normal. Maybe RHO is just being careless, or maybe they know their partner cannot ruff a heart (either having 2 spades, or not having heart length).

 

Of course if they know that we think this way they can mess with us but most people cannot avoid the compulsion to win the heart and play a heart when holding 5 hearts and 1 spade.

 

Also, last time I had a situation like this they basically did the equivalent of shifting to a trump! That opens up a new set of worms.

 

The clue most obvious clue for playing for the drop is that RHO raised to 4C. Would he do this with Kx of spades and 3 trumps and a yarb?

 

Also, one other thing you can say in favor of not finessing at this point is that LHO did not save or attempt to save. With 7 clubs to the KJT and a spade void, they might have considered it after we effectively tried for a grand when they're w/r (or might have just bid 6C over 5D to suggest partner do it).

 

Whether or not RHO would raise to 4C on a yarb with Kx of spades might depend a lot on whether they have the HA or not, so knowing that they do have it is helpful. I think with Kx of spades and an ace they are unlikely to bid 4C, but maybe if they had 4 trumps they would anyways...

 

If RHO has 4 trumps I doubt LHO has the spade king, bidding 3C with stiff K of spades and a 6 card suit is weird, but it might depend on who LHO is (and how dutch they are).

 

If RHO has 4 trumps and a stiff spade they might have bid 5C though, but that might depend on how aggressive their 3C bids are.

 

Anyways I think:

 

-More likely than not, if RHO has 4 clubs, they have Kx of spades.

-If RHO has 3 clubs, they always have a stiff spade.

 

So ruffing clubs after playing a heart (to find out who has the HA obv) and trying to get a read on the count there is important. I think if you watch their spots carefully you will get a good clue since most people are not close to random.

 

RHO returning a diamond is a clue that they have Kx of spades...with 1543 a heart back is normal, and even with 1453 it's normal.

 

Of course you are just guessing what they would play back and don't know so I should not read too much into it!

 

A lot of people would not bid 3C with 0436 and would only do so with 0346. Some people might not raise with 4 clubs and a balanced hand, and some might not raise with 3 clubs and a stiff spade, it depends on their style...

 

I'd want to be at the table for this one, sry

 

/drunk

[bluecalm]

Intuitively I play for drop.

I would love to see some good arguments to convince me otherwise. I am bad at figuring this stuff out myself.