Bid or not?

[jdonn]

- I had trouble predicting how we would bid after 1S - 1NT.

....

[the hog]

Thanks Han. Results are not conclusive I guess.

[JLOGIC]

I ran a simulation. Out of the 50 hands that were dealt, I threw out 33 because either

 

- the hands were not consistent with 1S-pass-,

- the opponents would bid and the auction would get too complicated, or

- I had trouble predicting how we would bid after 1S - 1NT.

 

On the remaining 17, partner rebid spades 10 times and each time it would have been better to pass out 1S. On the 7 hands where partner does not rebid spades and I thought I could predict the auction, bidding was better than passing 6 times.

 

It was too hard to say whether bidding would be better than passing, but it seems jdonn won't get much chance to laugh.

He can laugh at your sample size of 17 hands.

 

Also, much of the reason to bid with no points is to mess up the opponents bidding. It's way easier for them to bid 3N after 1S p p 1N p 3N than 1S p 1N. So throwing out hands where the opps would bid is like throwing out a good reason for bidding.

[hanp]

I know, as I said, I don't think a simulation is going to solve things. I do think that you are very unlikely to make your contract if partner rebids 2S, 3S or 4S!

[Free]

Can't we let GIB or Jack bid and play the hands? At least we'll have an objective party who hasn't seen all hands running the simulation.

[jonottawa]

I'm not sure if bidding or passing is better but I choose defending 3N over either.