Bid or not?

[jdonn]

Or, god forbid, partner might bid 2N and we have to play 3H instead of 1S!!!

I think you mean 4H.

Depends if your methods are good or not, but either way wouldn't you rather play 4♥, which might give you a GAME bonus, opposite a strong hand than a 5-0 fit at the 1 level?

[rduran1216]

Or, god forbid, partner might bid 2N and we have to play 3H instead of 1S!!!

I think you mean 4H.

Depends if your methods are good or not, but either way wouldn't you rather play 4♥, which might give you a GAME bonus, opposite a strong hand than a 5-0 fit at the 1 level?

why are you convinced this is our hand?

 

make partner 5143 or 5242 or 6232 or 6241 or 6223 with a 12 count.

 

Now it goes 1S p 1N x p p p

 

or 1S p 1N x 2S p p x p p ?

 

or 1S p 1N p p p

 

Do we really wanna play 1NT in a hand we could easily go down 3?

 

If partner shows a good 17-18 with 2N how do we decide on 4H or 3H. Maybe our partner has an AQJ10xx spade suit that will be just fine opposite a void.

 

I think bidding 1NT in standard is wishful thinking/irresponsible

[JLOGIC]

THis thread was a great laug h lol, cant wait to live withy ou jdonn

[Free]

Unless playing Gazzilli or something similar, I'd probably pass.

 

Yes, we could have an easy game or slam if partner has a lot of ♥s. I know you shouldn't count on opps to help you, but I'm pretty sure the hand won't die out. And if it does, then we play 1♠ instead of a likely 2♠ or 3♠.

 

The thing is: it depens a lot on partner's hand. What is the chance he'll rebid ♠ vs the chance he'll rebid something else. If he bids ♠ we're screwed, if he bids something else we can easily get our suit in (just wondering if that's a good idea though). Not sure what the chances are, but I'm interested.

 

Oh, has everyone seen this is MATCHPOINTS (especially Josh who's eager to get the game bonus)?

[gnasher]

Oh, has everyone seen this is MATCHPOINTS (especially Josh who's eager to get the game bonus)?

I think that the form of scoring gives us more reason to bid. How many matchpoints do you expect for 1♠-2?

[Free]

Oh, has everyone seen this is MATCHPOINTS (especially Josh who's eager to get the game bonus)?

I think that the form of scoring gives us more reason to bid. How many matchpoints do you expect for 1♠-2?

More than from 2♠-3, 3♠-4 and 3♥ down a few in a 6-1 fit ; less than a ♣ or ♥ contract with fit...

[pooltuna]

Or, god forbid, partner might bid 2N and we have to play 3H instead of 1S!!!

I think you mean 4H.

Depends if your methods are good or not, but either way wouldn't you rather play 4♥, which might give you a GAME bonus, opposite a strong hand than a 5-0 fit at the 1 level?

why are you convinced this is our hand?

 

make partner 5143 or 5242 or 6232 or 6241 or 6223 with a 12 count.

 

Now it goes 1S p 1N x p p p

 

or 1S p 1N x 2S p p x p p ?

 

or 1S p 1N p p p

 

Do we really wanna play 1NT in a hand we could easily go down 3?

 

If partner shows a good 17-18 with 2N how do we decide on 4H or 3H. Maybe our partner has an AQJ10xx spade suit that will be just fine opposite a void.

 

I think bidding 1NT in standard is wishful thinking/irresponsible

you are not sitting for any x of 1NT so that can't happen

 

and while an X of 2♠ is more problematical a runout could still work

[Codo]

you are not sitting for any x of 1NT so that can't happen

 

and while an X of 2♠ is more problematical a runout could still work

yes and no.

[hanp]

Oh, has everyone seen this is MATCHPOINTS (especially Josh who's eager to get the game bonus)?

I think that the form of scoring gives us more reason to bid. How many matchpoints do you expect for 1♠-2?

No I don't agree Andy.

 

While I would bid at any form of scoring, I think it is much clearer at IMPs.

[jdonn]

Oh, has everyone seen this is MATCHPOINTS (especially Josh who's eager to get the game bonus)?

New jdonn law: GAMES ARE GOOD AT MATCHPOINTS TOO!!!

Corrolary: SO ARE SLAMS!

[jdonn]

If I hold this hand my best laugh will be if partner rebids 4♠ and makes it. Or if he rebids 3♠ and I bid 4♥ and make it. Oh no, partner rebid spades, the world has come to an end.

[hanp]

I don't know what you mean by that post Josh. If partner rebids spades, it is very likely that you are going down, and probably more than those in 1S. This will usually be quite bad in a poor MP field where most don't respond with fewer than 6 HCP.

[jdonn]

I don't know what you mean by that post Josh.

Seems pretty clear to me? I told you what scenario would give me the best laugh. I meant nothing more than that. If you were having this ridiculous argument with people and they kept saying "what if partner rebids spades" wouldn't you laugh if your partner rebid spades and it worked out well? Just like they should laugh if my partner rebids hearts and it works out badly (lol?)

[the hog]

I don't know what you mean by that post Josh.

Seems pretty clear to me? I told you what scenario would give me the best laugh. I meant nothing more than that. If you were having this ridiculous argument with people and they kept saying "what if partner rebids spades" wouldn't you laugh if your partner rebid spades and it worked out well? Just like they should laugh if my partner rebids hearts and it works out badly (lol?)

I guess what is more likely? I wonder if someone could do a simulation?

[Free]

I don't know what you mean by that post Josh.

Seems pretty clear to me? I told you what scenario would give me the best laugh. I meant nothing more than that. If you were having this ridiculous argument with people and they kept saying "what if partner rebids spades" wouldn't you laugh if your partner rebid spades and it worked out well? Just like they should laugh if my partner rebids hearts and it works out badly (lol?)

I guess what is more likely? I wonder if someone could do a simulation?

Yeah I'd love a simulation as well because I have no idea what's more likely. Probably Josh will be proven right again though :)

[Fluffy]

depends on who runs the simulation, remember that the constrains of how LHO reopens are very important.

 

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

[hanp]

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

Yes, I think that that's right.

 

I don't know what kind of simulation the Hog had in mind. I could make 50 hands and try to predict after each hand what will happen after 1NT and after pass, but of course this will be very subjective. We'll never agree.

[Free]

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

Yes, I think that that's right.

 

I don't know what kind of simulation the Hog had in mind. I could make 50 hands and try to predict after each hand what will happen after 1NT and after pass, but of course this will be very subjective. We'll never agree.

Then try 100 :D

[gszeszycki]

Playing Standard American You hold

 

Dealer: North

Vul: Both

Scoring: MP

♠

♥ Q109xxx

♦ xx

♣ Qxxxx

 

Too much animosity for such a simple question. I would bid 1n w/o hesiation

not becasue I am convinced it is always better but for the following reasons.

 

1. if P has 5 spades 1s will probably be a very poor mp score so bidding will rarely make the result much worse and could be spectacularly better.

 

2. I am much happier knowing p has 6+ spades if they rebid 2/3 spades even if we end up 1/2 levels higher.

 

3. Anything other than pass or spades from p gives a chance to improve or spectacularly improve our mp score. While the chances of p rebidding spades or pass are high (i would not be shocked to find the odds as high as 65% if someone runs a sim) remember we are in a poor spot to begin with and a bit worse wont make much difference.

 

4. At MP opps seem particularly aggresive in keeping people from playing 1n. This concept makes spade rebids by p as probably the only really damaging result vs pass.

[dkharty]

I think pass is best regardless, but with Standard American I think pass is obvious.

So...no disrespect intended, but why exactly did you start this thread?

[the hog]

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

Yes, I think that that's right.

 

I don't know what kind of simulation the Hog had in mind. I could make 50 hands and try to predict after each hand what will happen after 1NT and after pass, but of course this will be very subjective. We'll never agree.

Well Han if you could that would be good.

I am curious about this as so many want to bid. My worry, and I guess that of Free's is that if it goes 1S 1NT, how likely is opener to have a hand where he will rebid 2/3 S as opposed to a hand where you will reach a (far?), better contract?

[jdonn]

I believe that when LHO is reopening, pass puts us in a slightly better spot that biddign 1NT, do people agree with this?

Yes, I think that that's right.

 

I don't know what kind of simulation the Hog had in mind. I could make 50 hands and try to predict after each hand what will happen after 1NT and after pass, but of course this will be very subjective. We'll never agree.

Well Han if you could that would be good.

I am curious about this as so many want to bid. My worry, and I guess that of Free's is that if it goes 1S 1NT, how likely is opener to have a hand where he will rebid 2/3 S as opposed to a hand where you will reach a (far?), better contract?

Agree with han, we have tried simming hands like this before and it proves completely subjective with everyone becoming firmly entrenched in their original views.

[hanp]

When I have the time I will do the simulation nevertheless and see what happens.

[gwnn]

even in 2/1 with your partner likely to rebid spades it is risky.

 

I think pass is best regardless, but with Standard American I think pass is obvious.

So just pass next time and leave us alone!

[hanp]

I ran a simulation. Out of the 50 hands that were dealt, I threw out 33 because either

 

- the hands were not consistent with 1S-pass-,

- the opponents would bid and the auction would get too complicated, or

- I had trouble predicting how we would bid after 1S - 1NT.

 

On the remaining 17, partner rebid spades 10 times and each time it would have been better to pass out 1S. On the 7 hands where partner does not rebid spades and I thought I could predict the auction, bidding was better than passing 6 times.

 

It was too hard to say whether bidding would be better than passing, but it seems jdonn won't get much chance to laugh.