Choice of games

[hanp]

What do you think about my bid on this hand:

 

6xxx

K

Kxx

A1098x

 

Our uncontested auction was:

 

p - 1NT (15-17)

3C (puppet stayman) - 3D (no 5-card major)

3H (4 spades) - 3S (also 4 spades)

3NT (suggestion).

 

I was hoping for a hand such as Axxx AJx QJx KJx, where I think that 3NT is much better than 4S.

 

Do you think my 3NT is reasonable, or is my unbalanced hand too far from what partner should expect? Should partner pass with most 4333's, or only when he has weakish spades and honors in all side suits?

 

The form of scoring is IMPs.

[mcphee]

While your option of 3N might work, especially with the hand you suggest, it seems to be cutting a fine line. You are bound to get a H lead when the opps hold 9 and you require C values and perhaps the A of D. With specific conditions needed I would prefer to play 4S where your chances should be as good as any.

[TylerE]

If you're going to play 3N opposite spades, why are we staymaning?

[helene_t]

If you might be going to play 3N opposite spades, why are we staymaning?

Therefore.

[bluecalm]

Should partner pass with most 4333's, or only when he has weakish spades and honors in all side suits?

 

I think 4-3-3-3 is auto pass. I am not sure about other shapes but I think partner is allowed to pass with 4-4-3-2 weak trumps and strong doubleton.

 

As to your decision it looks very bizarre to me. I am not 100% convinced it's bad though.

Opposite 15-17 4-3-3-3 you make 4♠ 72% of the time and 3NT 61% of the time according to my simple simul.

[Free]

Since you're a passed hand, 3NT obviously is a suggestion to play. Your values are mainly in the other suits (evenly divided w00t), so I think there's nothing really wrong with suggesting 3NT here. Partner should realise you fear for too many ♠ losers, the rest doesn't really matter imo.

[655321]

I don't really like 3NT, with an unbalanced hand I much prefer playing in spades without giving partner the option.

[bluecalm]

If opener is 4-3-3-3 with the following spade configurations allowed: Axxx/Kxxx/Qxxx/Jxxx/QTxx/JTxx/xxxx then:

 

3NT - 92% !!!

4♠ - 59%

 

So yeah... it looks like you are on to something here...

 

I need to make some more research but maybe my assumption about 4-3-3-3 being auto pass is off and it's better to base the decision on trump suit quality instead of shape.

[hanp]

I think that honor location should indeed be an important factor for partner Bluecalm. If partner knows we won't usually bid 3H with 4333 shape, there is no reason for him to automatically pass with 4333 shape. At the table partner had AQJ10 A10x 10xx Kxx. I'm thinking that this hand should pull to 4S. If I have some 4342 shape, 4S will likely play better. The spades are great and the weak diamonds are a worry.

 

If partner passes only with poorish spades and at least one honor in every side suit, then a simulation might favor 3NT even more.

 

Further thoughts are very much appreciated.

[pooltuna]

While your option of 3N might work, especially with the hand you suggest, it seems to be cutting a fine line. You are bound to get a H lead when the opps hold 9 and you require C values and perhaps the A of D. With specific conditions needed I would prefer to play 4S where your chances should be as good as any.

This looks like good advice to me.

[andy_h]

I can understand the merit but I think a 5431 is pushing it a bit far. Of course if we do do it our singleton will be in the form of an honour but partner may never know where that singleton is to judge if it meshes well with his AJx or not with Qxx. If we are also the type where we would puppet stayman with 4333 or 4432 shape then a 5431 is too much of a stretch.

[aguahombre]

We also have 3C puppet available, but would not have used it with 4-1-3-5. We only use it with (4-3) in majors or (3-x) in majors. It seems that 2C, then 3C (if opener doesn't show spades) would be just fine as a passed hand.

 

Maybe we belong in a club or diamond game. Seems more useful than trying to sort out which 4-4 spade fits should play in NT.

 

This is just a "further thought". Am not "whining" about your style.

[hanp]

We also have 3C puppet available, but would not have used it with 4-1-3-5. We only use it with (4-3) in majors or (3-x) in majors. It seems that 2C, then 3C (if opener doesn't show spades) would be just fine as a passed hand.

 

Maybe we belong in a club or diamond game. Seems more useful than trying to sort out which 4-4 spade fits should play in NT.

I think it is quite unlikely that we have a club or diamond game on this hand, and would not worry about it. The reason I used puppet stayman instead of stayman is that partner's 4-card heart length remains hidden.

 

This is just a "further thought".  Am not "whining" about your style.

 

Take it easy Aqua, I appreciate your response!

[hanp]

I can understand the merit but I think a 5431 is pushing it a bit far. Of course if we do do it our singleton will be in the form of an honour but partner may never know where that singleton is to judge if it meshes well with his AJx or not with Qxx. If we are also the type where we would puppet stayman with 4333 or 4432 shape then a 5431 is too much of a stretch.

Try giving partner a 15-17-count, 4333 with poor spades and Qxx of hearts. I think that 3NT will often be better than 4S. Give partner a terrible hand such as Axxx Qxx AQx Kxx, and 4S is great on a non-heart lead or ace of hearts underlead, but has almost no play in 4S. Add the heart 10 and 3NT is a great contract!

 

I'm not bidding 3NT in the hope that partner will guess what I have. I'm bidding 3NT in the hope that, on the hands where partner passes, 3NT will be better than 4S.

 

I realize I ask for opinions and then disagree with pretty much every response I get, I do appreciate all the comments!

 

It does seem to me that people are not enough thinking about what the effects of 3NT will be, but rather about what they would instinctively do with 4135 shape. Mcphee stated that

I would prefer to play 4S where your chances should be as good as any.

 

but bluecalm's second simulation seems to suggest that 3NT is much better, at least opposite the hands with which I think that partner should pass. Pooltuna shamelessly quotes mcphee's post without reacting to this simulation, and nobody else has reacted to it either.

 

Are my thoughts about what hands partner should pass with way off?

 

Is bluecalm's double dummy simulation hopelessly biased in favor of 3NT?

 

Or are people afraid to think outside the bun?

[pooltuna]

If opener is 4-3-3-3 with the following spade configurations allowed: Axxx/Kxxx/Qxxx/Jxxx/QTxx/JTxx/xxxx then:

 

3NT - 92% !!!

4♠ - 59%

 

So yeah... it looks like you are on to something here...

 

I need to make some more research but maybe my assumption about 4-3-3-3 being auto pass is off and it's better to base the decision on trump suit quality instead of shape.

IIRC on a side note, Soloway used to prefer to convert to 4M with HH after his partner transferred to the M and rebid 3NT. Consequently I suspect trump quality is the critical factor in making the decision to correct to 4M and the 3NT call should better show poor ♠ rather than a more balanced hand.

[hanp]

Out of curiosity I redid bluecalm's analysis. The strongest spade holdings that I allowed were A109x and K109x, and I required opener to hold an honor (at least the queen) in each side suit. My results were close to his: 92% for 3NT and 61% for 4S.

[gnasher]

There are several categories of deal where you may to play in 3NT:

(1) 4333 opposite 4333

(2) Lots of quacks, so you don't need to ruff anything

(3) Poor trumps, and an alternative source of tricks together with some fast winners.

(4) Poor trumps, and enough extra values that you have nine winners elsewhere

 

I assume that with (4) you just don't look for a fit.

 

You've said that you also wouldn't usually look for a fit with 4333. I know that this is a minority view, but I think that's a mistake given the range of hands that people treat as balanced these days. Anyway, that's what you do, so partner won't be thinking about (1), and he won't pass just because he's 4333.

 

Your hand falls into category (3), but partner might think it's all about (2). If so, he'll probably pass 3NT with something like AQxx QJxx Axx Qx (where 3NT is OK but so is 4♠) but also with AQxx Qxxx AJx Qx (where 3NT is in difficulty).

 

The hands where you really want to play 3NT are the ones where you can use the clubs and don't need the spades, eg Jxxx Axxx Ax KQJ. Will partner pass 3NT with that? I think he won't.

[Hanoi5]

I suppose that since you shouldn't be 4333 partner should guess what your trouble was and bid 4♠ instead of passing 3NT. Of course this means that s/he is on the same wavelength, i.e. s/he knows that you have bad spades, honors in all the suits and probably not many HCP's (?), especially since you're playing IMP's.

 

I first thought this was a MP's hand where 3NT would beat those making the same tricks in spades but being IMP's I believe your partner should have corrected.

[jdonn]

I don't know if this is a hijack or not, but after 3♦ I would want to show clubs. I think we will have 6♣ a fair amount of the time, 6♠ less of the time (plus it will be very hard to diagnose when trumps are good enough), and that 4NT tends to be safe enough to make looking for slam and not bothering with a 4-4 spade fit worthwhile.

[cherdanno]

I don't know if this is a hijack or not, but after 3♦ I would want to show clubs. I think we will have 6♣ a fair amount of the time, 6♠ less of the time (plus it will be very hard to diagnose when trumps are good enough), and that 4NT tends to be safe enough to make looking for slam and not bothering with a 4-4 spade fit worthwhile.

The opening bid was 1NT not 2NT.

[jdonn]

It was huh. In that case I hijacked reality. This is why gib is a good partner for me, I may make these mistakes but he never does.

 

I think it's walking too fine of a line to bid 3NT here.

 

Actually to backtrack, why did we use puppet stayman on this hand anyway if the opening was 1NT? I would be much more interested in regular stayman then showing my clubs. We could belong in either minor here. I suppose the only reason is to offer 3NT even if we have a spade fit but I have already disagreed with doing that.

[bluecalm]

Out of curiosity I redid bluecalm's analysis. The strongest spade holdings that I allowed were A109x and K109x, and I required opener to hold an honor (at least the queen) in each side suit. My results were close to his: 92% for 3NT and 61% for 4S.

 

It makes sense that 4♠ makes slightly more often in your simul as in mine ATxx/KTxx of spades were not allowed.

I wonder what are the best constraints and what is the best way to find those 3nt's.

Maybe just focusing on trump suit quality is good even without other considerations.

One more simul:

 

Opener is 15-17, any 4-4-3-2. Spades : Axxx/Kxxx/Qxxx/Jxxx/xxxx/QTxx/JTxx (still weaker than hanp's assumptions).

 

4♠ = 65%

3NT = 83%

 

Together with previous result about 4-3-3-3's it looks like considerable edge even without involving any kind of judgment. Just look at trumps and bid accordingly.

[kayin801]

When we only have a single stopper in one suit and are missing a club honor (especially the Q), isn't 3NT a lot worse, since we have to guess where that club honor is? DD results are gonna assume we always get the club suit right...

 

Of course, we might have a club loser, 2 spade losers, and another side loser in 4♠ anyway when we similarly misguess, so maybe its right.

[JLOGIC]

I agree with gnasher, I don't think this bid is about good/bad trumps more than quacky/slowish values. Typically I would expect some kind of 4432 with slowish values and an honor doubleton, and partner to convert with a prime hand.

 

That doesn't make 3N wrong necessarily though, the better his trumps are the more likely his hand is to be suit oriented. It's possible even though he'll get it wrong sometimes 3N will maximize our potential. When han asked me this hand I told him I thought it was close either way, but I probably wouldn't have done it. Clearly if partner will pass with bad trumps and bid with good trumps it's a good bid.

[Free]

Just a further thought: 3NT definitely isn't a 4333 imo, otherwise you'd just rebid 3NT after your puppet stayman.