bridgeboy Posted August 9, 2004 Report Share Posted August 9, 2004 [hv=d=s&v=n&n=s10843hq2dq65ckj54&s=sak2hak54dj872ca10]133|200|Scoring: IMPAgainst 3NT, West leads a fourth best club, East will contribute the 9 (Clubs will be 5-2) Plan the play.[/hv] What is the best way to combione your chances? Too many ways to conduct a poll I think. Thanks all in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pclayton Posted August 9, 2004 Report Share Posted August 9, 2004 8 off the top. If I thought it mattered; (it will in the endgame, mind you), I would ask what club was led. Makes a big difference on this hand if I think clubs are 5-1 or 4-2. It appears to me that the best way to continue is to go after diamonds. Win the 10♣ and unblock the A♣. I don't see the point of winning the A♣ at T1. Even though this gives you a more fluid entry position for the endgame, the opponents might be able to establish a club trick by force long before then. Play a small ♦ to the queen. This will test LHO holding Ax or Kx for starters. Assume it loses on my right. A low spade return by them is probably best for them. I win. Now play a small diamond from hand. Worse thing is that RHO wins and plays another spade. I will duck this, and I will assume that LHO will win. If LHO plays a spade, I will know if they are 3-3 or 4-2. If LHO plays a heart, win in hand. Here's where the decision comes on the hand. If you think diamonds are 3-3, lead another from hand. if you think diamonds are 4-2 with the length on your right, go the Q♥, cash K♣ pitching a heart and lead toward a ♦ toward your hand. There are multiple squeeze and endplay chances on this hand. Playing diamonds early gives me a chance to make a diamond trick by force, starts to rectifies the count, and strips the only means of communication between E/W. Depending on what they play after they win the diamonds, I may have multiple squeeze / endplay chances. Its just too early to tell what you need to do on this hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulhar Posted August 9, 2004 Report Share Posted August 9, 2004 Its just too early to tell what you need to do on this hand. Agreed. This looks like excellent bridge movie material :) I played it the same way that pclayton did. Unless I have great evidence otherwise, at the point where he might play from hand or go to the board and cash the club and lead up, I go to the board, cash the club, and lead the diamond. Of course, an early appearance of a spade honor or 9 may alter the line chosen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted August 10, 2004 Report Share Posted August 10, 2004 Just play another ♣, ♠AK, hope some top honour falls, and play ♥QAK and exit ♥. They'll have to bring a ♣ or a ♠, or play ♦ as we want. If no top honour ♠ falls, play on ♦AK in one hand and forget the ♥s for now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted August 10, 2004 Report Share Posted August 10, 2004 i play the same, almost... win the ♣A, lead the 7♦ and duck (cover the 10, however)... duck the ♠ return (who knows, the 10 might come in handy), win the next, lead another small ♦, playing Q if west plays low unlike phil and paul, i'm more afraid of diamonds coming back (if i play the Q first) than i am spades... see, i'm thinking west's entry is in diamonds, and it's possible he has (after my Q play) a tenace over my J,8 anyway, that's my play :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trpltrbl Posted August 10, 2004 Report Share Posted August 10, 2004 This hand has to do with technical correct play, but also with the way you play the hand and the way opps react.I m missing to many ♦ spots, to go after that suit. So I will start with AK ♠, with ♠ behaving I have 9 tricks. If not I still have squeezes, endplay and maybe opps helping me.There is no clearcut line, go with your gut. Mike :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridgeboy Posted August 11, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 11, 2004 Maybe I should make this into a bridge movie style :D Anyway, perhaps mistakenly, I took the club 10 and unblocked the Club ace ( LHO shows he started with 5 to the Q). Cashed the AK of S and exited a S, RHO turned up with QJ9x. He took the Third S ( LHO discarded club) and returned the Heart 10. You might not agree with the above play but at the table I thought it was reasonable :) Your plans from here? To make things easier, these are the cards left:[hv=d=s&n=s10hqxdqxxckj&s=shakxxdj87xc]133|200|East now returns the 10 of H[/hv] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 11, 2004 Report Share Posted August 11, 2004 Ok.. I probably go down, but I play like Jimmy. I win the club ACE at trick one, and low diamond to some ducking to EAST if WEST doesn't play T or 9. Assume a spade back (could be heart of course, if heart, win ACE temporarily blocking that suit. Now I play another diamond towards dummy. If WEST plays diamond A or K I am home, if plays diamond T or 9, i can force a diamond winner by covering. Now I think I can unravel all my tricks because I kept a club entry (late club hook) to dummy. Maybe not perfect, but at least Jimmy and I will get the same score on this, good or bad. And I am fond of the line that lets those diamonds spots (876) work for me (after all, we would not have bid 3NT with the ♦8..hehehehe). It will be so much fun to make with EAST has Diamond AKT2 and west has diamond 93... also works with west having Kx, Ax, Tx, AKT9, or any 3-3 diamonds split other than west have AKx (he can have AK9, or AKT and we still make). PS I am concerned about free's line, because he has cut himself off from the club king. I can imagine that his line has collapsed his 8 sure tricks into 7. But since I think that line is wrong, no doubt it will end up bieng right. :unsure: The movie style version by bridgeboy is curious, as to why didn't the fellow that his last high spade? Is he good enough to worry about squeezing his partner? Anyway, the heart return is evil, and now the problem is similar to free's. If you win the heart QUEEN, and fail to cash your club King, you strand your 8th trick, if you win heart queen and take your club king, you set up 5 winners for them (2D, 2S, 1C). So you win in hand and have to play a diamond. But the problem now is three diamond losers and two spade losers. You will need to play EAST for diamond AK on this line. This is why I think Jimmy's line is better. Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trpltrbl Posted August 11, 2004 Report Share Posted August 11, 2004 Playing ♦ for 2 tricks is 22.77 %, playing ♠ for 3 tricks is 57.33%. Mike :unsure: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 11, 2004 Report Share Posted August 11, 2004 Playing ♦ for 2 tricks is 22.77 %, playing ♠ for 3 tricks is 57.33%. Mike :unsure: Mike, I agree the chance to make 3 tricks in spades is 57.3%.. no problem, your math there is flawless... Your math on the chance to make 2 tricks in diamonds may be right, but all I need is ONE TRICK in diamonds, not two. So the diamond play is not 22.77% for the contract, but rahter 85.95% A much better shot at the game than playing for the paltry 57% for 3♠, and playing on diamonds doesn't give up all chances of lucky spade split.. but playing three rounds of spades can be too late to grab a diamond trick.. so odds of diamond play are actually better than 86%... ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trpltrbl Posted August 11, 2004 Report Share Posted August 11, 2004 Ooooooops, you are right, only 1 needed :( Feeling stupid now :unsure: Good thing that doesn't last long with me B) But I stand corrected, Ben is right, again :) Mike :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trpltrbl Posted August 11, 2004 Report Share Posted August 11, 2004 HAH, he was somewhat right, it is actually 96.77 % :unsure: Even a better shot at game. Mike B) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 11, 2004 Report Share Posted August 11, 2004 HAH, he was somewhat right, it is actually 96.77 % :unsure: Even a better shot at game. Mike B) 97% isn't right, because when you duck a diamond, if EAST wins and returns club.. and WEST still has two diamond winners before you set up your good diamond you are down... so for isntance, if WEST had... (you do have a 97% chance of setting up a diamond, but they can take 3♦ and 2♣ to set you one before you can enjoy your 9th trick... winning the ♣T at trick one doesn't help if they attack hearts when they win the first ♦, which why you have to unblock clubs at trick one. ♦AKTx and plays low, and you play the 7 and it loses to the nine.. back comes a club. Now when you duck another diamond, WEST can win, and back comes a club. Now you duck another diamond, and they cash clubs.. you lose 2♣ and 3♦, so ben is still right, and you have swung too far the other way.... Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted August 11, 2004 Report Share Posted August 11, 2004 Maybe not perfect, but at least Jimmy and I will get the same score on this, good or bad. hey, i've scored 0% before.. and even, occasionally, 100%... yust a game... but it's good to know i wouldn't be alone in whatever score this made :) ... anyway, i only need a trick or two, spades can wait... i'm actually hoping they lead em thru my A,K so i can duck once Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridgeboy Posted August 12, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2004 Looks like D play is the right suit to go after :) Ben is right in saying if you want to go after D, you should take the first trick with the ace. (Else a H return will wreak your comms) Back to the actual play... I do the S and they return a Heart at the position given a few posts earlier. Now I try to go for a favourable D position. It seems that I can only cope with one type, namely Hx D with LHO. Hence I took the H return with the ace (temporily blocking the suit) and played a D to the Q taken by the K. Now my RHO cashed the remaining S winner (Big clue the D honours are split). Position is as follows: [hv=n=s10hqdxxckj&w=shjxxdkcqx&e=sqh9xd109xc&s=shkxxdj87c]399|300|East now cashes the Q of S[/hv] D discarded from Hand (Not a H) and West is caught in an unusual fix. It seems that he cannot prevent me from getting 9 tricks. I admit I was lucky to find the D lying well at the end but I suppose it will always be a second shot for me if S do not fall? If we start on D and Spades comes back, we might have to depend on a favourable S lie (Not sure exactly what). Spade play also gives an additional chance in D. What I was interested in was which play gives a combined higher chance? Will it be sound play to take the first trick with the ace instead of the 10? Thanks all in advance :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 12, 2004 Report Share Posted August 12, 2004 What I was interested in was which play gives a combined higher chance? Will it be sound play to take the first trick with the ace instead of the 10? The win the first trick with the club TEN or ACE is a very interesting question on this hand. If you win the ten, and lead a low diamond, losing to the middle spot card in EAST (if west jumps the ACE or King, you have nine tricks)... back will come a heart. You will have to win the A or K, unblock club and lead another diamond. Either opponent wins and leads a heart. Now you are in dummy for the last time. To get your 8th trick, you need to cash the club king, then lead a diamond. If WEST can win the third diamond, he will cash two clubs, and you lose 3♦ and 2♣. So, winning the club TEN means, with good defense, you will have trouble anytime WEST can win the third round of diamonds (makes no difference who wins the second). If you win the diamond ACE, however, WEST has to be able to win the SECOND and the THIRD round of diamonds to set you. Without working the odds, I guess winning the first round with the ACE is the better play.. (I was wrong once in the past, who knows, this might be the second time). I think this is a great lesson hand. Thanks for posting it... Ben Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted August 12, 2004 Report Share Posted August 12, 2004 well, since i'm not the best at computing the odds, i played the A just cuz i felt i might need the entry... heart suit looks to blockable to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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