Round 2, Board 8

[inquiry]

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=s4h4da97cak986432&s=st6532haqj8d3cjt3]133|200|Scoring: IMP

West open's 1♥ and east at his first turn to bid will raise as cheaply as possible, but not above 3♥ (and if 3♥ announced as competitive), after which NS are out of the auction

 

I am not sure there is a "correct" way to bid this hand so that you can find out that slam is a good bet. In actuality, it maybe just a guess (we could probe ant590 and hrothgar to see how they bid it). If north just bids 5♣ over 1♥, i would not consider 6♣ with south, but if north can use some kind of strong auction to 5♣ i would, but what strong auction could exist? That is the problem. Maybe (1H)-3H-(pass)-3N-(pass)-5C... then 6C... but not sure that makes sense.

[/hv]

 

6C=11, 5C=7, 3N=4, 4N=2, 3C = 1

 

6CN ant590 - crayzeejim

6CN hrothgar/Free

5CN bluecalm/redds

5CN elianna/awm

5CN Flycycle/Wackojack

5CN gnasher/catch22

5CN jdonn/gib

5CN mbodell - javabean

5CN olegru - driver733

5CN peachy/lg62

5CN rogerClee/cherdano

5CN sallyally/joylson

5CN tlgoodwin/timg

5CN tylere / bid_em_up

3NTS East4Evil/sohcahtoa

3NS karlson/threenobob

3NS kfay/jchiu

3NS lobowolf/bkjswan

3NS Siegmund/MSchmahl

3CN jlall/hanp

3CN kristen33/jillybean

[bluecalm]

This one is very tough imo.

 

1♥ - 2♣ - 2♥ - ?

 

was a standard start I assume. Now what ? I chose a double because I didn't want to lose 5-4 spade fit.

Thoughts ?

[Ant590]

we could probe ant590 and hrothgar to see how they bid it

I think I bid the North hand too strongly tbh. I overcalled 2♣, then cuebid 3♥ over partner's club raise, then bid 4♣ over 3NT from partner. After this, partner kickbacked and and drove to the slam when we were missing a single ace (I'm not sure how he knew we didn't have two spade losers).

 

I've not chatted to him about it since, but it may be likely that he thought I had shown a slam try with diamond weakness and the majors sewn up (with my choice of 3♥ rather than 3♦ over his 3♣ bid).

[tgoodwinsr]

Our auction, after the raise to 3C, was 3D by overcaller, 3H by advancer, and 5C by overcaller. I think we have agreed that 4S by overcaller (over 3H) would have been a good bid, and enough to get us to 6C.

[Fluffy]

why is 5♣ outscoring 3NT? opps bid and raised hearts but are gonna find the lead into declarer's maybe bid suit with honnors divided and unblocked?

[rogerclee]

I agree 3N in practice will usually outscore 5C.

[bluecalm]

You will often make 13 tricks in 5♣ while in 3nt they are very likely to lead their side suit (diamonds more likely than spades) and you take 10 or 9. That said I think it's quite close.

[awm]

I think 5♣ > 3NT.

 

The likely auction to 3NT will imply that we have a running club suit and heart stopper(s). On such an auction, I think good opponents should almost never lead a heart, and should instead endeavor to lead either spades or diamonds. On a spade lead 3NT will not make more than nine tricks, and on a diamond lead it will make ten tricks.

 

However, 5♣ by north is likely to receive a heart lead (leading opening bidder's suit) and 5♣ will normally make all thirteen tricks on this lead (using the "marked" ruffing finesse in hearts to discard a spade). This beats 3NT+1.

 

So the only time that 3NT wins over 5♣ is when 3NT was getting a heart lead from west (I've already explained why this is pretty poor, unless the auction is somehow really misleading) or if 3NT gets a diamond lead and 5♣ gets a spade lead.

[kfay]

I think 5♣ > 3NT.

 

The likely auction to 3NT will imply that we have a running club suit and heart stopper(s). On such an auction, I think good opponents should almost never lead a heart, and should instead endeavor to lead either spades or diamonds. On a spade lead 3NT will not make more than nine tricks, and on a diamond lead it will make ten tricks.

 

However, 5♣ by north is likely to receive a heart lead (leading opening bidder's suit) and 5♣ will normally make all thirteen tricks on this lead (using the "marked" ruffing finesse in hearts to discard a spade). This beats 3NT+1.

 

So the only time that 3NT wins over 5♣ is when 3NT was getting a heart lead from west (I've already explained why this is pretty poor, unless the auction is somehow really misleading) or if 3NT gets a diamond lead and 5♣ gets a spade lead.

But they'll somehow find out how to untangle spades on a layout such as the one that actually occurred?

[Fluffy]

On such an auction, I think good opponents should almost never lead a heart, and should instead endeavor to lead either spades or diamonds. On a spade lead 3NT will not make more than nine tricks, and on a diamond lead it will make ten tricks.

Even though I am replying a lot to your post I don't mean this as outraging as it sounds, just pointing out my opinion wich might easilly be wrong.

 

If south bids 2♠ you dont get a spade lead.

 

If spades break 3-4 they might be blocked form the start, or easilly someone blocks after leading from Kxx or Qxx. If 2-5 they are also possibly blocked.

 

Against weak opponents diamond lead might end in strip squeeze.

 

And the thing about marked heart finese is IMO wrong, you have no clue of where the heart king is.

[awm]

Again, people seem to be assuming that 3NT+1 wins the board. I really think that 5♣+2 is an extremely likely result here!

[Free]

Not sure how the bidding went on our table (I think Richard knows), but as far as I remember I started with a simple 2♣ overcall and then pushed really hard. I remember that I knew he had long ♠s without values, but don't remember how exactly.

[Siegmund]

If there are 13 tricks in clubs half the time - seems about right, with the HK a little more likely to be with opener offset against the chance that someone has a spade sequence to lead - then 3NT and 5C should be approximately tied. I find it hard to believe that making 13 tricks in clubs is such a heavy favorite to let it outscore 3NT 7:4.

[hrothgar]

Not sure how the bidding went on our table (I think Richard knows), but as far as I remember I started with a simple 2♣ overcall and then pushed really hard. I remember that I knew he had long ♠s without values, but don't remember how exactly.

I'm trying to recall the precise auction (Tim might have hand records)

 

I think that it started

 

(1♥) - 2♣ - (2♥) - 2♠

(P) - 3♦ - (P) - 3♥

[TimG]

I'm trying to recall the precise auction (Tim might have hand records)

hand recording did not work so well for me, I had to copy the final contracts from what I had hand written and send them to Ben.

[awm]

This is another one of those hands where knowing its a bidding contest might effect one's action.

 

I chose to bid 5♣, which is what I'd bid at the table in a real game. This has a lot of advantages: for example it shuts out the opponents' possible spade fit, may force them to guess whether to compete in hearts at the five level, may make them guess whether to double 5♣. There are many cases where real opponents might judge wrong, or where they might make the wrong lead against 5♣ and allow it to score up when it shouldn't (and a slower auction might've made the opening lead problem easier).

 

It's true that opposite carefully constructed partner hands we may have a good 6♣ (as here) or 3NT might play better than 5♣, or it might be essential to avoid game. Given that it's a bidding contest, one of those situations is more likely than not (plus opponents always seem to "judge right") and it might be bidding-contest-right to try only 2♣.