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3nt or 4M


Mbodell

How do you evaluate what to play  

36 members have voted

  1. 1. How do you evaluate what to play

    • 3nt is much, much better than 4H
      4
    • 3nt is somewhat better than 4H
      9
    • 3nt is marginally better than 4H
      3
    • 4H is marginally better than 3nt
      8
    • 4H is somewhat better than 3nt
      4
    • 4H is much, much better than 3nt
      8


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[hv=d=s&v=n&s=skj84haqjdt83caq3]133|100|Scoring: MP

1nt (15-17) - 2*

2 - 3nt

???[/hv]

 

Partner shows a pretty standard exactly 5 hearts, less than 4 spades, ~10-15 HCP, and likely no side 5+ card minor.

 

Also, what if anything would you need to change in the hand to change your answer (from 3nt to 4 or from 4 to 3nt).

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Pass looks obvious especially with a few tenaces. Mildly worried that hearts is scoring better with a diamond lead but we are ahead anytime we make the same number of tricks and I would expect the field to pass as well.

 

I'm passing at IMPs too and I would expect others to agree.

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Under the conditions where partner might have a five-card minor and therefore presumably could more frequently also have a four-card minor and a side singleton then I bid 4.

 

However I think a style where you bid 3NT with such distributional hands is fundamentally flawed.

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I'd pass. I suspect partner has Kxxxx (otherwise there's no point in transfering imo) so we have our source of tricks. Only danger to me seems that partner has xx or some wasted values. But since RHO didn't Dbl we might have more chance to avoid a lead.
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I was playing with a new partner so wasn't sure on style with respect to rest of shape (hence only saying "likely" to no 5+ minor comment). I choose pass for lots of reasons (4333, max in points, AQJ of hearts make suit run, etc.).

 

Partner hit with:

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=saqhk9432d52cjt86&s=skj84haqjdt83caq3]133|200|Scoring: MP

1nt - 2

2 - 3nt[/hv]

 

T1 K 2 9 3

T2 5 A 2 4

 

I ran the hearts and cashed the spade Q and now had to decide if I should finesse in clubs for 12 tricks if it is on and maybe only 7 or 8 tricks if it is off or cash out for 10 tricks. I figured that if the club finesse is off than 4 makes 10 tricks and 3nt makes less if they continue diamonds so cashing out would be a top if the finesse fails. If the finesse works then cashing out would lose to 4 making 11 tricks, but still beat the 3nt contracts, so ave- at worst. So I decided not to finesse in clubs (I tried the J but no cover) - it would have won.

 

In the Open game, 2 sections, 16 tables total that played the board, we were the only table in 3nt and scored a 0 for +630. In the 299er game the board was played 11 times and played 3nt 3 times and +630 would have been good enough for 65%.

 

I was pretty surprised to see 14/16 open tables to play 4 (the other one was a 5X -4 sac by the opponents). Based on voting so far looks like about 50% of BBF would have been in 3nt and 50% in 4 which would have made my choice better.

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There are several ways to address this problem:

 

- As opener with 4333 and an inadequate stopper, don't pass 3NT. However, now you'll sometimes play 4M when you belong in 3NT.

 

- As responder with a 5422, always show your second suit even though you don't want to play in it. If you do that, you'll usually play the right game on this hand. However, you also give away information unnecessarily, and make things harder when responder is more shapely or stronger.

 

- Play better methods. There are a huge number of ways to get to 3NT. Use two of them to say "I have a raise to game with a 5-card major, but you're not allowed to pass 3NT with 3-card support". That is a far more useful agreement than much of the other stuff that people play opposite a 1NT opening.

Edited by gnasher
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- Play better methods. There are a huge number of ways to get to 3NT. Use two of them to say "I have a raise to game with a 5-card major, but you're not allowed to pass 3NT with 3-card support". That is a far more useful agreement than much of the other stuff that people play opposite a 1NT opening.

Mind sharing your methods for this?

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- Play better methods.  There are a huge number of ways to get to 3NT.  Use two of them to say "I have a raise to game with a 5-card major, but you're not allowed to pass 3NT with 3-card support".  That is a far more useful agreement than much of the other stuff that people play opposite a 1NT opening.

Mind sharing your methods for this?

I think someone once posted (maybe gnasher?) that they play 3C = 5332 with a 5cM. Then opener can ask with 3D if he wants, or bids 3N if he doesn't care.

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I was playing with a new partner so wasn't sure on style with respect to rest of shape (hence only saying "likely" to no 5+ minor comment). I choose pass for lots of reasons (4333, max in points, AQJ of hearts make suit run, etc.).

 

Partner hit with:

 

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=saqhk9432d52cjt86&s=skj84haqjdt83caq3]133|200|Scoring: MP

1nt - 2

2 - 3nt[/hv]

 

T1 K 2 9 3

T2 5 A 2 4

 

I ran the hearts and cashed the spade Q and now had to decide if I should finesse in clubs for 12 tricks if it is on and maybe only 7 or 8 tricks if it is off or cash out for 10 tricks. I figured that if the club finesse is off than 4 makes 10 tricks and 3nt makes less if they continue diamonds so cashing out would be a top if the finesse fails. If the finesse works then cashing out would lose to 4 making 11 tricks, but still beat the 3nt contracts, so ave- at worst. So I decided not to finesse in clubs (I tried the J but no cover) - it would have won.

 

In the Open game, 2 sections, 16 tables total that played the board, we were the only table in 3nt and scored a 0 for +630. In the 299er game the board was played 11 times and played 3nt 3 times and +630 would have been good enough for 65%.

 

I was pretty surprised to see 14/16 open tables to play 4 (the other one was a 5X -4 sac by the opponents). Based on voting so far looks like about 50% of BBF would have been in 3nt and 50% in 4 which would have made my choice better.

After the transfer, 3C stands out a mile after which it is easy to get to 4H. Don't really care about fancier methods to get to 4H.

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In my opinion in this sequence you should almost always convert to 4M having 3 card support because partner may well be 5-4-2-2 or even 5-4-3-1 if he doesn't see other possible game than 3NT/4M.

 

Imo if you want to play 3NT having 5-3 major fit you should either incorporate some choice of games bid in your system or with hand which are very suitable for NT just bid stayman instead of transfer and bash 3NT in absence of 5-4 fit.

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I ran the hearts and cashed the spade Q and now had to decide if I should finesse in clubs for 12 tricks if it is on and maybe only 7 or 8 tricks if it is off or cash out for 10 tricks.

The good news is I think that passing 3NT is correct. The bad news is that I think you played it very poorly.

 

The 3NT/4H decision is close at MP but Partner can be short (singleton or more likely doubleton) in 3 suits. If a black suit (2/3rds) then 3NT seems a better shot. If diamonds they can still misdefend 3NT as here.

 

As to the play you should definitely cash your spades first, then cash the hearts, before deciding whether to finesse or not. In most cases their discards will allow you to finesse safely (pitch too many diamonds), or simply tell you who has club K (signalling). In fact you may be able to exit with dummy's diamond endplaying West out of his KC.

 

If they defend better than I suggest, then finessing is still the percentage play as 1) West who was not vul has failed to overcall 1NT with diamond honours and possible KC. 2) Just generally East has more vacant spaces (assuming diamonds 5-3) or 3) playing for split points.

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I ran the hearts and cashed the spade Q and now had to decide if I should finesse in clubs for 12 tricks if it is on and maybe only 7 or 8 tricks if it is off or cash out for 10 tricks.

The good news is I think that passing 3NT is correct. The bad news is that I think you played it very poorly.

 

The 3NT/4H decision is close at MP but Partner can be short (singleton or more likely doubleton) in 3 suits. If a black suit (2/3rds) then 3NT seems a better shot. If diamonds they can still misdefend 3NT as here.

 

As to the play you should definitely cash your spades first, then cash the hearts, before deciding whether to finesse or not. In most cases their discards will allow you to finesse safely (pitch too many diamonds), or simply tell you who has club K (signalling). In fact you may be able to exit with dummy's diamond endplaying West out of his KC.

 

If they defend better than I suggest, then finessing is still the percentage play as 1) West who was not vul has failed to overcall 1NT with diamond honours and possible KC. 2) Just generally East has more vacant spaces (assuming diamonds 5-3) or 3) playing for split points.

You think? I agree that thinking about the finesse is worth it, but I'm not so sure about spades first. I did considered this before playing, but if I cash the spades before the hearts then I'm banking on a 3-2 heart spit. I know that is about 68%, but do I really want to go down 32% of the time (ok, I can pick up 4-1 with stiff T so it is another 5% or so, so 73% succeed and 27% fail) to preserve the chance of the later club finesse (which still risks not getting the club A, but is much safer overall)? I decided not to do this at trick 2 for the reason of 10 tricks should always beat the other NT and may beat the other hearts (depending on if the finesse worked).

 

It is possible that I should read the LHO for the AKJx(x) that he had and the RHO for the Q9x(x) that he had and then figure something about split points or what not that make the K more likely with RHO or read more from the discards (LHO had 2 hearts and pitched a discouraging spade and then two discouraging clubs, RHO had 3 hearts and pitched a discouraging club and then a diamond). But it was RHO who had the chance to double for the diamond lead (and didn't) and LHO only had the chance to overcall over 1NT and 11 points isn't really enough to do that without much more shape.

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- Play better methods.  There are a huge number of ways to get to 3NT.  Use two of them to say "I have a raise to game with a 5-card major, but you're not allowed to pass 3NT with 3-card support".  That is a far more useful agreement than much of the other stuff that people play opposite a 1NT opening.

Mind sharing your methods for this?

I know of three schemes:

 

(1) I think there's a blog post somewhere by Justin that suggests one way to do it. Han or Cherdano might be able to tell you more about that.

 

(2) Use transfer and step one as a length ask

 

1NT-2;2-3NT = choice of games, but opener can pass with 4333

 

1NT-2;2-3// = natural slam try

 

1NT-2;2-2NT = asking about trump length, one of:

- Looking for a 5-3 fit

- Game-going two-suiter without slam interest, interested in a 5-2 fit

- 5332 slam try

- 1-suited slam try

Opener bids 3 without 3-card support, or 3 with 3.

Opposite 3-card support: 4 = signoff; 4 = 5=4 choice of games; others = slam try.

Opposite 2-card support: 3// = second suit in //; 3NT = to play; 4NT = invitational; others = one-suited slam try.

 

1NT-2;2x-2 = 5 spades, invitational (includes 5+4 invitational)

 

With hearts, it's similar, except that :

- The asking bid is 1NT-2;2-2, and that includes invitational hands with 5 hearts. Opener bids 2NT with 2 and a minimum, 3 with 2 and a maximum, 3 with 3.

- 1NT-2;2-2NT = invitational with 4+5.

 

(3) Play two sets of transfers to the majors, one at the two-level and one at the three level. The two-level transfers are used for two-suiters, balanced invitations, and one category of 3NT bid. The three-level transfers are used for one-suited invitations, one-suited slam tries, and the other category of 3NT bid - opener breaks the transfer if he would accept the invitation.

 

I use (3) in conjunction with a heavily modified version of Heeman. I've never played (2), but I think it works well and will fit unintrusively into an existing system (unless you play four-suit transfers). I can't remember how Justin's method works, but I remember that it seemed sensible.

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