Bende Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 What do you think is the most common card led? Are there any statistics on this? My own guess is that it is the ♦K, although I have very little to back this up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 I think majors are lead more often than minors on the other hand it shouldn't affect honor leads too much..My guess is that A♠ and A[♥] are the most common led cards :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helene_t Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 Good players don't lead unsupported aces very often, and with AK they sometimes lead the king by convention. So the most often lead card is probably a king. Against notrump, the most common lead will be a major, against suit it will be a minor since major suit contracts are more common and people won't lead the king of trump very often. But from AK or KQ you will almost always lead an honor against a suit contract while you might lead a small card against notrump. Besides, the preference for leading majors against notrump probably affect spot card leads more than honor leads. Since clubs is the least popular denomination I will go with ♣K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W Kovacs Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 If I had to wager a guess, I'd say it's one of the low spot cards. "4th best" is something beginners pick up early, and so it should skew the results towards them. Now as to which specific spot or which strain, that really depends on the hand leading. Maybe a 6? Strain should be equally distributed, so that is a much harder call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 Going with Kovacs, but allowing for 3/5, 4th, and attitude leads ---I vote for club 2.Nobody plays in clubs, increasing the probability it is a side suit or that it is right to lead trump :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WellSpyder Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 Good players don't lead unsupported aces very oftenTrue, but don't they lead unsupported kings even less often? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 meh. 4 of somethingmaybe the 5. say. ♥4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echognome Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 I wonder if this is something researchable in bridge browser (or whatever the name of the database is). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 We appear to be assuming the OP meant an opening lead or a lead by a defender. It could just as well be a card played from dummy or from declarer's hand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 We appear to be assuming the OP meant an opening lead or a lead by a defender. It could just as well be a card played from dummy or from declarer's hand? we're also assuming that the OP meant bridge. at hearts, for instance, the answer would be the ♣2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 Seems a silly exercise, but I have to tools to investigate this. I looked at 20,000 BBO hands all played on Feb 1, 2009. These were all main room hands so that each hand was played 16 times. This was from 1250 unique deals I(sample size is not large enough of course, maybe I should look at 1 million or 2 million hands). Perhaps a better question is what it he greatest opening lead versus a particular contract. There was no contract selection here. The data I get from Bridgebrowser provided sthe opening lead. Here is the results Ld timesDA 933CA 926SA 775HA 731C2 728 <<---- data flawed as po count as c2 lead. real number 438CK 575DK 542HK 506SK 475H2 453S2 436DQ 435D2 407H3 404C4 389C3 382D4 377DT 375D3 373C5 363S4 361S3 354HT 353H4 348H5 344C6 335CQ 325CJ 320CT 314D6 314D9 313SQ 309HJ 307S7 306C9 302S5 300S6 297SJ 296DJ 296ST 282H7 281HQ 280H6 279D5 274S9 265D7 264D8 256S8 250H8 233C8 232C7 222H9 203 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 Wow, I came in 5th behind all the bullets.....so proud :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 interesting: 12 of the top 13 spots are held by the four aces, kings, and dueces. I think this is compelling evidence even considering the relatively small sample size. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PassedOut Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 Wow, I came in 5th behind all the bullets.....so proud :DGood thing I didn't guess the ♥9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 I would have guessed the ♦7 was last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 Huge FLAW in above data... I discovered that on passed out hands, the software records the CLUB TWO as the opening lead. Not sure why, but this obviously increased the club two opening lead to a stupidly high value. When I take out the passout hand, the club 2 opening lead was decreased to 438 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted August 19, 2010 Report Share Posted August 19, 2010 The disparity in the lead of Qs is interesting. Otherwise most of the ranks are closely grouped. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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