Blackjack...

[Lobowolf]

First hand off a 6-deck shoe: 11 for you, dealer has a 7 showing, but the down card was flashed, and it's a picture. You stop for a second as you're reaching for the auto-double, and then you...

[jjbrr]

http://a.imageshack.us/img696/954/monkeyg.jpg

one timeeeeeeeee

[rogerclee]

Looks like we hit and it's not close. Our equity from doubling is about .3077 and our equity from hitting is about 0.46 (this is assuming infinite deck, in 6 deck it will be slightly less favorable, because 7 and T are good cards for you).

[luke warm]

i'd double down because usually when i get 10 or 11 the dealer has a 10 or ace up... so what the hell, let's gamble a bit

[jjbrr]

i'd double down because usually when i get 10 or 11 the dealer has a 10 or ace up... so what the hell, let's gamble a bit

[Winstonm]

If you don't count cards, would that make the play noncounterintuitive?

[luke warm]

i'd double down because usually when i get 10 or 11 the dealer has a 10 or ace up... so what the hell, let's gamble a bit

LOL... good find

[keylime]

Smack it around with an around the world and back snap.

[ArtK78]

If you don't count cards, would that make the play noncounterintuitive?

OP said this was the first hand off of a six-deck shoe. So counting cards is not relevant.

 

I have not done the calculation, but I suspect that it is better to hit than to double down if you know the dealer has 17. You win only half as much as when you hit a K, Q, J, 10, 9, 8 or 7, but you turn a 2x loser into a 1x winner (or a push) when you hit an A, 2, 3, 4 or 5 and then hit again and make a hand.

 

If this were later in the shoe and you were counting cards, the odds might change. In a plus shoe it would make more sense to double down.