Which suit to attack?

[kayin801]

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=s109873hqj75da8cqj&s=sakh1062dk9764ck106]133|200|Scoring: IMP

(P)-P-(P)-1♦

(P)-1♠-(P)-2♦

(P)-2♥-(P)-2NT

AP[/hv]

 

Yes, I would rebid 1NT with south's hand, but this is what happened at the table.

 

Lead is ♣9, ducked by RHO. What's the best suit to attack (and how would you explain it to an intermediate player)?

 

(Adv+ feel free to hide answers, but I'm looking at this somewhat from a "how to explain this" sort of view)

[nigel_k]

This is not an easy hand for an intermediate level player (rest hidden below):

 

 

Spades offer the best chance of establishing two tricks (3-3 or short honour) but you need two entries to establish and cash the spades and you only have one. Hearts and diamonds both work if the suit is 3-3 but playing on hearts you are certain to set up at least one trick and have squeeze chances if hearts don't break and they don't get at your communications in diamonds. If you play on diamonds and they are are 4-2 or worse you are always down.

 

The upside of playing on diamonds is that if clubs are 6-2 then 3-3 diamonds is your best chance. Depending on their methods this may or may not be likely. Probably you should still play on hearts but I would overtake at trick one and play a low heart from hand. If LHO fails to rise and clubs are 6-2, RHO may have to use his heart entry prematurely.