3NT or 5m?

[junyi_zhu]

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=s974hj32dckqjt764&s=saq86ha876dakjc83]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

Opponents silent. How should the bidding go?

Perhaps MP affects players' thinking. In IMPs, most likely, the bidding would go 3C 5C.

Still, it's a nice sequence in MP as well IMO.

[billw55]

That said, I find billw55's analysis kind of compelling. With partner's club holding:

- 3NT is 100% if partner holds the K♠, K♥ or Q♦

- 3NT is ~50% if partner holds the J♠ or Q♥

- The J♥ and T♠ give some chances, too.

 

 

This is of course rubbish, he can have K♠ or Q♦ or both but if I'm on lead with any non blocked 5 card ♥ suit and ♣A you're not going to make 3N, and the honours in the second case mustn't be stiff, and the third case mustn't be doubleton.

I realize all that. But does that necessarily make it rubbish? Isn't 3NT still >50% to make on all those chances? In particular the bit in blue, how often will that happen? Maybe one time in five?

 

And when 3N makes, it makes 430 or 460, > 400 or 420. Which leads to ...

 

3NT might make, but this is the kind of bidding decision that makes MP offensive. Bidding anything except 5♣ is not real bridge.

This I can agree with. But the problem did in fact say matchpoints.

[Cyberyeti]

That said, I find billw55's analysis kind of compelling. With partner's club holding:

- 3NT is 100% if partner holds the K♠, K♥ or Q♦

- 3NT is ~50% if partner holds the J♠ or Q♥

- The J♥ and T♠ give some chances, too.

 

 

This is of course rubbish, he can have K♠ or Q♦ or both but if I'm on lead with any non blocked 5 card ♥ suit and ♣A you're not going to make 3N, and the honours in the second case mustn't be stiff, and the third case mustn't be doubleton.

I realize all that. But does that necessarily make it rubbish? Isn't 3NT still >50% to make on all those chances? In particular the bit in blue, how often will that happen? Maybe one time in five?

 

And when 3N makes, it makes 430 or 460, > 400 or 420. Which leads to ...

The statement was clearly rubbish, 3N is not 100% if you have either ♠K or ♦Q, that was what I was arguing about, and ditto the other combinations where they do not give the given percentages if short.

 

The probablities also depend on partner's heart length, if he has 3 hearts, the chance of a 5 card heart suit recedes.

 

If partner has say void, Qxx, xxx, KQJxxxx the Q♥ may not be enough on a spade lead if the K♥ is right, but the hand with the KH also has 5 spades, and a heart lead can defeat you if he holds ♥Qx by destroying the entry too early.

 

Calculating the percentages is not straightforward.

[kenrexford]

If Opener has the spade King or the diamond Queen, we likely make 12 tricks in clubs if 3NT makes, and if these cards are needed for 3NT then then 3NT probably JUST makes after a heart lead.

[Cyberyeti]

If Opener has the spade King or the diamond Queen, we likely make 12 tricks in clubs if 3NT makes, and if these cards are needed for 3NT then then 3NT probably JUST makes after a heart lead.

Agree with this on ♠K, but ♦Q is likely to still only be 11 and a spade finesse for 12.

 

Also you can duck a heart or two in 3N if you choose to, which if partner has 2 or more hearts means you're only held to 9 if the long heart is with the A♣.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

If North opens 4C, you will end up in 5C, if North opens 3C, you will end up in 3NT.

 

I think, North has a 4C opener.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[vuroth]

3NT might make, but this is the kind of bidding decision that makes MP offensive. Bidding anything except 5♣ is not real bridge.

I agree with your MP sentiments, Ken, but the ACBL pretty much funnels beginners like me into MP....