vuroth Posted August 3, 2010 Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 [hv=d=w&v=n&s=s82hk85432d985c82]133|100|Scoring: MP(P) 2NT (P) ?[/hv] Where are we going, if anywhere? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted August 3, 2010 Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 I would just bid texas here, but I don't think it's criminal or anything to transfer and pass if partner can't super accept at MP, just inferior imo. If my partner was known to be a habitual upgrader as some are so that the range is really more like 19-20 I would just transfer and pass though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 3, 2010 Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 Texas seems clear to me. The 6th heart is a pretty big card for game evaluation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted August 3, 2010 Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 Texas seems clear to me. The 6th heart is a pretty big card for game evaluation. We agree and I would be suprised if a sim didn't show game to be a fav to make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted August 3, 2010 Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 It's my cutoff, Qxxxxx I would bid transfer to 3 and be happy whether partner did or didn't super accept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted August 3, 2010 Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 Texas seems clear to me. The 6th heart is a pretty big card for game evaluation. We agree and I would be suprised if a sim didn't show game to be a fav to make. I would actually be quite surprised if a sim showed that game WAS a favorite to make given that they always make the right lead and defense. Part of the value of this hand is that they will often lead wrong, and even if they don't their trick 2 problem will be completely brutal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted August 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 Thanks. I bid 3♦, and was fairly confident about it at the time. Later, it occurred to me that partner is a very good bet to have at least 3 hearts, and will have 4 not an insignificant percentage of the time, and I wondered if game was making often enough to try it. W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted August 3, 2010 Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 Texas seems clear to me. The 6th heart is a pretty big card for game evaluation. We agree and I would be suprised if a sim didn't show game to be a fav to make. I would actually be quite surprised if a sim showed that game WAS a favorite to make given that they always make the right lead and defense. Part of the value of this hand is that they will often lead wrong, and even if they don't their trick 2 problem will be completely brutal. Good point are double dummy sims!! Anyhow I expect game to be at least 50/50 in real life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted August 3, 2010 Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 As your usual sim provider here it is: 2NT= 20-21 bal, 5M possible;4♥ makes: 62% (1000 hands). It of course doesn't mean that you should bid it because there are some hands which will carry you to game anyway if you bid transfer but 62% is ezy bash from my experience. Opposite the same hand but with Q instead of K 4♥ makes 38%. It seems that this JDonn has quite a judgment... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted August 3, 2010 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2010 Nice. Thanks, bluecalm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 As your usual sim provider here it is: 2NT= 20-21 bal, 5M possible;4♥ makes: 62% (1000 hands). It of course doesn't mean that you should bid it because there are some hands which will carry you to game anyway if you bid transfer but 62% is ezy bash from my experience. Opposite the same hand but with Q instead of K 4♥ makes 38%. It seems that this JDonn has quite a judgment... Thx very much for this result and now to test Josh's judgement if you've time for another sim. Lets say it is the same hand but Q85432 but that opener super accepts every hand with 4♥ except 3433 20 counts. Once again, I expect game to be at least 50/50. .. neilkaz .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 bluecalm, how about Qxxxxx with a singleton? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5% 2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9% 6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1% ***Corrected*** Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilkaz Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9% 6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 81.3% Wayne, that is a shocking difference for the stiff!! Are you sure about that? I assume your sim allows for any reasonable 20-21 2NT opener and of course dummy's weak 6 carder is trump. .. neilkaz .. just trying to learn when to force game with near trash opposite 2NT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 Whoops yes I have a bug. Rerunning now will fix as soon as it is finished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 The simulation parameters for partner's hand were: 20-21 hcpany 4333, 4432 or 5332 handnot four trumps unless 4333 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLOGIC Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5% 2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9% 6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1% ***Corrected*** pfft guess I was wrong, at least I made the right bid :blink: Maybe I am too used to my partners having more like 19-20 with a 5 card suit, or 20-21 without one :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 It makes sense to do simuls opposite hands which doesn't super accept as if they do you are in game anyway.I was writing long reply but then realized I have problems with some conditions when it comes to superaccepts and the results are not stable. I need to verify the results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5% 2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9% 6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1% ***Corrected*** pfft guess I was wrong, at least I made the right bid :blink: Maybe I am too used to my partners having more like 19-20 with a 5 card suit, or 20-21 without one :P I actually think that's a more accurate sim. Plus they will superaccept lots of the ones that make game anyway. So maybe my judgment isn't so good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5% 2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9% 6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1% ***Corrected*** pfft guess I was wrong, at least I made the right bid :blink: Maybe I am too used to my partners having more like 19-20 with a 5 card suit, or 20-21 without one :P I actually think that's a more accurate sim. Plus they will superaccept lots of the ones that make game anyway. So maybe my judgment isn't so good! I attempted to remove the super-accepts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5% 2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9% 6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1% ***Corrected*** pfft guess I was wrong, at least I made the right bid :blink: Maybe I am too used to my partners having more like 19-20 with a 5 card suit, or 20-21 without one :P I actually think that's a more accurate sim. Plus they will superaccept lots of the ones that make game anyway. So maybe my judgment isn't so good! I attempted to remove the super-accepts. Could you run partner: Never 5 hearts19 with any other 533220 with any shape21 with any 4333, or 4432 without 4 hearts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 2=6=3=2 K8xxxx 10+ tricks 59.5% 2=6=3=2 Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 37.9% 6-3-3-1 any singleton Q8xxxx 10+ tricks 47.1% ***Corrected*** pfft guess I was wrong, at least I made the right bid :blink: Maybe I am too used to my partners having more like 19-20 with a 5 card suit, or 20-21 without one :P I actually think that's a more accurate sim. Plus they will superaccept lots of the ones that make game anyway. So maybe my judgment isn't so good! I attempted to remove the super-accepts. Could you run partner: Never 5 hearts19 with any other 533220 with any shape21 with any 4333, or 4432 without 4 hearts K8xxxx in a 6322 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 1 7 24 8 122 9 301 10 406 11 140 12 4 13 2 Q8xxxx in a 6322 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 6 7 26 8 203 9 419 10 297 11 48 12 1 13 0 Q8xxxx in a 6331 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 6 7 26 8 129 9 383 10 360 11 92 12 4 13 0 Code hearts(south)<5 and ((hcp(south)==19 and shape(south,any 5332) ) or (hcp(south)==20 and shape(south, any 4333 + any 4432 + any 5332) )or (hcp(south)==21 and shape(south, any 4333 + any 4432) and (hearts(south)<4 or shape(south, any 4333)))) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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