Round 1, Board 5

[inquiry]

[hv=d=n&v=n&w=s743hjd7cakt86532&e=sak9ha972dt864c74]266|100|Scoring: MP

Board 5. Bidding Script: North and south stay out of the bidding.

 

Notes: This is an interesting hand. If East opens 1♦, that decreases the chances of a potentially killing ♦ opening lead against a possible 3NT contract by EAST. At one early table, not only did EAST open 1♦, she rebid 2p♦ over the 2♣ response and then bid 3NT over partners 3♣ rebid! I am certain that auction will not get a ♦ lead. This means if 1♦ is opened by East and EW play 3NT, they will score better than 5♣ anytime a non-diamond is lead, and can tie 5♣ if a diamond is lead but the suit is 4-4, and beat 3NT if the suit is 5-3 and blocked, or the defense figures out EAST has four diamonds and shifts. So 3NT gets a higher than maybe expected score.

 

3Ne*=11, 5♣ew = 10, 3Ne* = 9, 3Nw* = 7, 2New=5, 4♣ew =4, pass out = 2, 6♣=1

 

[/hv]

The 11 points require auction where East bids diamonds twice naturally, the 9 point hand is where East opens 1♦. the 3N 7 hand is when 3NT is reached without EAST opening 1♦.

 

The auction by jdonn and his partner deserves special mention. Jdonn opened 1♦ and his partner (holding 8 clubs) responded 1NT.

 

Contracts reached.

1N W 1

3C E 2

3C W 7

3N E 7

3N W 1

5C E 1

5C W 1

5D E 1

6C W 1

Pass 5

 

Pass CanadaGrl/Gerardo

Pass zasanya/ravia6

Pass helene_t-agusaris

Pass kfay/jchiu

Pass tylere / bid_em_up

6C W mbodell - javabean

5D E Siegmund/MSchmahl

5C W Flycycle/Wackojack

5C E ant590 - crayzeejim

3N W gnasher/catch22

3N E peachy/lg62

3N E kristen33/jillybean

3N E East4Evil/sohcahtoa

3N E tlgoodwin/timg

3N E jlall/hanp

3N E karlson/threenobob

3N E rogerClee/cherdano

3C W Codo-Fluffy

3C W cascade kermit

3C W sallyally/joylson

3C W olegru - driver733

3C W mohitz/akjq

3C W elianna/awm

3C W lobowolf/bkjswan

3C E bluecalm/redds

3C E Hrothgar/Free

1N W jdonn/gib

NA 0 j0i/gwnn

NA 0 Tomi2-JHDW

NA 0 Vampyr/Lamford

[Mbodell]

This is a quite interesting board to figure out! I thought about this one for quite a while in terms of figuring out what is the spot you want to be in MP, and I'm still not sure (obviously not the spot I ended up. B)

 

In imps I want to be in 5♣, but in MP 3nt may be better or may be equal or may be worse.

 

I'll note that even dodging a diamond lead, or finding diamonds 4-4 or blocked, we aren't out of the woods. Clubs split 3-0 22% of the time (and even if onside, we obviously aren't finessing at MP with diamonds open and playing for MAX tricks). When clubs split 3-0, you are down 4 in 3nt but only down 1 in 5♣ (or 2 in 6♣, lol).

 

So nt needs to dodge the diamond situation AND the club split.

[Cascade]

Club partials will very often be better than no trump partials here.

 

As you scored no trumps is very much dependent on the lead. At its worst though even 3NT will be worse than a club partial.

[Hanoi5]

I was expecting most people to open the East hand. I wondered what those with the West cards thoughts after Pass-Pass-Pass, not a common situation at all.

[cherdanno]

I think 3N on the auction P P P 3C P 3N (or after an auction where East systemically opens 1♣) is still better than 5♣. South didn't open 1♦ in third, I don't think he is much more than 33% to lead diamonds (and even if he does, diamonds might be 4-4).

So 3N does much better than 5♣ in direct comparison, but of course 5♣ always beats the part scores, making it a bit closer.

[gnasher]

We bid to 3NT on a sequence that started

  p-1♣-p

I think that makes 3NT even better than in Cherdano's posited auction, because my South has failed even to overcall.

 

Edit: Sorry, I've just seen that Cherdano had already made that point.

Edited July 26, 2010 by gnasher

[Free]

I opened a weak 1NT in East and we ended up in 3♣.

[cherdanno]

We bid to 3NT on a sequence that started

  p-1♣-p

I think that makes 3NT even better than in Cherdano's posited auction, because my South has failed even to overcall.

 

Edit: Sorry, I've just seen that Cherdano had already made that point.

Haha I tricked you. That part was added in an edit :)

[gnasher]

We bid to 3NT on a sequence that started

  p-1♣-p

I think that makes 3NT even better than in Cherdano's posited auction, because my South has failed even to overcall.

In fact, we bid to 3NT by West after this start, so South's inaction doesn't tell us much. Except, perhaps, that he was asleep - it's actually quite hard to imagine a layout where he doesn't have either an overcall or a takeout double.

[bluecalm]

This is interesting. I think many pairs were in the same spot (opener showing weak nt type). I think probably W should gf opposite that having sure 8 tricks.

 

Our prec auction:

 

1♦ - 2♣

2♥ - 3♣ ?

pass

 

2♥ was 11-13 bal

3♣ was invitational (responder could choose to signoff or game force instead).

[inquiry]

The assumption I used for both 5♣ and 3NT was that clubs are not 3-0 either way. The reason for this is that the opponents have more hcp than you do, and the bidding script does not allow for North or South to open. With a void, surely one of them would have enough to scrape up a bid. In fact, in my opinion, the majority of the time for the bidding to go pass-pass-pass to WEST someone will have a singleton club honor.

 

I guess you could construct some hands with 3-0 clubs that neither player would open, but the majority of hands with a void in clubs someone would open. This explains why the scores reflect 5 clubs making.

[Cyberyeti]

This is horrid to score, I'd get to 3N off the auction 1N-3N, which will make 10 in practice unless the leader has 5+ diamonds, as with 4 diamonds and a 4 card major, the major almost always gets led and it's already been assumed he's not 3343.

 

Given the number of missing points, south virtually has to have 4 diamonds and a 4 card major in this auction, as with a 5-4 surely if his partner couldn't open, he'd have some sort of 2 suited overcall if he had 5 diamonds and a 4 card major, meaning the only real danger is N 5-5 majors 9-10 opposite S 3352 12 ish on lead.

 

This means that even where 3N can be held to =, in practice it will make 10 an awful lot of the time on this auction.

 

There are lots of auctions that have effects on the likely lead.

[Mbodell]

The assumption I used for both 5♣ and 3NT was that clubs are not 3-0 either way. The reason for this is that the opponents have more hcp than you do, and the bidding script does not allow for North or South to open. With a void, surely one of them would have enough to scrape up a bid. In fact, in my opinion, the majority of the time for the bidding to go pass-pass-pass to WEST someone will have a singleton club honor.

Fair enough if the bidding goes 3 passes. It would be interesting to see how often second seat acts though. If second seat opens 1♦ he may well have picked off south's suit and left him passing with a good hand (void clubs included, or enough hcp such that N can't open even with the club void). Moreover, if the second hand opens 1nt (12-14) like it did at our table (and likely a few others), then the south pass also tells us less.

 

It is a very hard board to score, IMO.

[Siegmund]

The auction by jdonn and his partner deserves special mention. Jdonn opened 1♦ and his partner (holding 8 clubs) responded 1NT.

 

I very seriously considered that same 1NT bid. I hated the idea of bidding 2C-then-3C on this hand. (So I leapt to 5C, and partner thought that had to be a control-asking-bid in clubs, fishing for a diamond slam. Whoops.)

[Wackojack]

Partner opens 1♦ = 10-13 balanced. Partner has worked out relay sequences to determine the exact distribution (which oddly enough, I have learned) but not where the points are. So I jump to 5♣.

[gnasher]

I did something silly here.

 

Partner opened 1♣, showing clubs, any 11-14 balanced, or any game force. I responded 1NT, showing invitational+ with clubs, partner showed a weak notrump, I showed a game-force, partner showed hearts, I bid my clubs again, partner bid 3NT, and I passed it unhappily. This auction was somewhat predictable.

 

I should have responded 1♠, which is either less than invitational without a major, or game-forcing with diamonds. Then when partner rebid 1NT I could raise to 3NT, no only right-siding it but also implying five diamonds. Then Ben would have had to alter his scoring table to cater for West's showing five diamonds.

[inquiry]

While 3NT will often make even when it is going down, 5♣ will make pretty much on all card layouts consistent with the bidding assumptions. Taking that into account, i gave several different scores for 3NT. The assumption was that Jillybean's auction would pretty much never get a diamond lead, it was:

 

1D - 2C

2D - 3C

3N

 

After that, I factored in if East opened 1D presumably natural, and thought it was less likely to get a diamond lead than if EAST opened 1C or WEST became declarer (regardless of opening bid).

 

The difference between the top three scores here is trivial, at least to me, maybe not to you. The question becomes is the penalty for playing 3NT by WEST or EAST after opening 1C too high? On a percentage chance of it making, it is not, but on what will they lead question, it might be. These what does it get based on speculation about opening lead are always tough.

 

I think I am happy with all scores here -- although I have to admit I never envisiones so many pairs bidding 3NT on 19 hcp. However, i am still wondering about the two lower scoring (9 and 7) 3NT contracts. Even when 3NT is going down due to badly placed diamonds, the defense might easily lead a major. Ideas on the scoring here?

[Mbodell]

I think you'll get a diamond lead more often then you imagine. Even on the auction given if opening leader has KQJ or AKQ or even AK of diamonds it might well make an attractive lead to look at dummy.