Round 1, Board 4

[inquiry]

[hv=d=w&v=a&w=s632hkt7543d872c4&e=skqj7haqdk543ck65]266|100|Scoring: MP

Board 4. Bidding Script: North will open or overcall in ♣'s as cheaply as possible, but not above 3♣. He will keep bidding ♣'s until 3♣ is reached. If north bids 2♣ it will be south who carries on to 3♣ if necessary. If west or east end up in 4♥'s or higher (in any denomination) south will double.

 

Notes: When played in real world, most seemed to think east is a little heavy for 1NT, no doubt due to the increased lighter and lighter nature of the 1NT overcall. The auction should be fairly straight foward with a 1NT overcall. West will try transfer to 2♥, and East will probably pass over 3♣ by north, so that west will be in position to take the push to 3♥.

[/hv]

Scores: 3♥ew = 10, 3♣xns=4, 3♣ns=2, 3♠=2, 4♥x=1

 

3♥W 10

4♥xW 9

3♥E 1

3♣N 3

4♥xx W 1

3♣x N 2

4♠x E 1

3H E 1

 

4Sx E bluecalm/redds

4Hxx W Codo-Fluffy

4Hx W peachy/lg62

4HX W mbodell - javabean

4Hx W CanadaGrl/Gerardo

4Hx W zasanya/ravia6

4Hx W kristen33/jillybean

4Hx W East4Evil/sohcahtoa

4Hx W ant590 - crayzeejim

4HX W cascade kermit

4Hx W sallyally/joylson

3H W tlgoodwin/timg

3H W olegru - driver733

3H W gnasher/catch22

3H W helene_t-agusaris

3H W jlall/hanp

3H W karlson/threenobob

3H W tylere / bid_em_up

3H W Hrothgar/Free

3H W rogerClee/cherdano

3H W mohitz/akjq

3H E Flycycle/Wackojack

3Cx N elianna/awm

3C x N kfay/jchiu

3C N jdonn/gib

3C N lobowolf/bkjswan

3C N Siegmund/MSchmahl

BA 0 j0i/gwnn

NA 0 Tomi2-JHDW

NA 0 Vampyr/Lamford

[awm]

I'm not sure why 4♥X scores any points at all here, as it seems like a sure bottom board (-200 if you're lucky).

 

I'd also note that 3♣X is a top any time the contract fails, which I'd rate as rather more than the 20% odds which the current scoring seems to rate it at.

[Mbodell]

I'm not sure why 4♥X scores any points at all here, as it seems like a sure bottom board (-200 if you're lucky).

 

I'd also note that 3♣X is a top any time the contract fails, which I'd rate as rather more than the 20% odds which the current scoring seems to rate it at.

Well, your two comments point out an inconsistency if 3♣X makes anything close to half the time, then 4♥X is unlikely to be a bottom (I don't think -3 is that likely).

 

Also, if 9 pairs in the contest ended up in 4♥X, it seems the -200 (or -500) will not be that lonely or uncommon a score. Bad yes, worse than 10%, no way.

[Cascade]

The hand in the movie for NS made heart contracts look bad.

 

I thought the 3♣ rebid was reasonably frisky with the hand shown. Bidding 3♣ with that hand is offering 200 or more reasonably often.

 

That makes the heart contracts look bad.

 

If north has all of the aces which I feel is more consistent with the bidding then 4♥ is a much better contract and is very unlikely to be doubled.

[JavaBean]

For what it's worth, 4♥ was not doubled by the operator at our table. We obviously aren't running anywhere and wouldn't be happy if we had, but it's a bit odd to not be offered the chance.

[Fluffy]

I must be really stupid, because I knew Codo had ♥Kxxxxx and I bid 4♥ because RHO must have the 3 aces after LHO's pass first round and he is not gonna lead a diamond, on a trump or club lead 4♥ is a good spot.

[Fluffy]

BTW: south didn't bid 3♣ at our table

 

1♣-X-ps-1♥

2♣-X-ps-3♥

ps-4♥

 

 

Not sure what the meaning of carries on to 3♣ is.

[Hanoi5]

BTW: south didn't bid 3♣ at our table

 

1♣-X-ps-1♥

2♣-X-ps-3♥

ps-4♥

 

 

Not sure what the meaning of carries on to 3♣ is.

It says 3♣ if neccessary. I wondered why so many pairs bid 4♥ over their partner's sign-off in 3♥...

[gnasher]

At our table, South bid 3♣ over the double of 2♣.

[Free]

Why is 3H by E worth only 1 point and 3H by W 10? It should rather be the other way around imo... Or is it a typo? Anyway we got 10 :)

[hotShot]

BTW: south didn't bid 3♣ at our table

 

1♣-X-ps-1♥

2♣-X-ps-3♥

ps-4♥

 

 

Not sure what the meaning of carries on to 3♣ is.

[hv=d=w&v=a&w=s632hkt7543d872c4&e=skqj7haqdk543ck65]266|100|Scoring: MP

Board 4. Bidding Script: North will open or overcall in ♣'s as cheaply as possible, but not above 3♣. He will keep bidding ♣'s until 3♣ is reached. If north bids 2♣ it will be south who carries on to 3♣ if necessary. If west or east end up in 4♥'s or higher (in any denomination) south will double.

 

Notes: When played in real world, most seemed to think east is a little heavy for 1NT, no doubt due to the increased lighter and lighter nature of the 1NT overcall. The auction should be fairly straight foward with a 1NT overcall.  West will try transfer to 2♥, and East will probably pass over 3♣ by north, so that west will be in position to take the push to 3♥.

[/hv]

Hmm ,the diagram above says West is dealer, so we will assume a pass before 1♣.

[TimG]

Why is 3H by E worth only 1 point and 3H by W 10? It should rather be the other way around imo... Or is it a typo? Anyway we got 10 :)

That's a frequency chart, not a score chart.

[Free]

Why is 3H by E worth only 1 point and 3H by W 10?  It should rather be the other way around imo... Or is it a typo? Anyway we got 10  :)

That's a frequency chart, not a score chart.

Right zzzzzz

[bluecalm]

I don't get the scoring method.

3♥ is normal contract and there is no way it would score a top at MP's.

It seems that some hands are scored by one method and other by different one.

 

Any sane pair (not us) should have no trouble staying out of 4♥ so bidding 3♥ would net you 60% board - tying with all sane pairs, beating all the idiots (like us) :)

[TimG]

I don't get the scoring method.

3♥ is normal contract and there is no way it would score a top at MP's.

It seems that some hands are scored by one method and other by different one.

 

Any sane pair (not us) should have no trouble staying out of 4♥ so bidding 3♥ would net you 60% board - tying with all sane pairs, beating all the idiots (like us) :)

In this contest, 11 pairs stopped in 3♥ while 10 pairs reached 4♥. So, I don't think your premise that "any sane pair should have no trouble staying out of 4♥" is correct.

[inquiry]

I'm not sure why 4♥X scores any points at all here, as it seems like a sure bottom board (-200 if you're lucky).

 

I'd also note that 3♣X is a top any time the contract fails, which I'd rate as rather more than the 20% odds which the current scoring seems to rate it at.

Not entirely sure what to make of suggested scoring changes here.

 

For awn's comment that 4♥ should get a zero, 4♥x scores better than both 4♥xx and 4♠x, both of which were played in this competition, in addition to 9 pairs playing in 4♥x tying each other. Maybe I didn't score it high enough!!! I was thinking along the lines that -200 is a zero-ish. Furthermore 4♥x will outscore 3♣x making, so I could see a counter arguement that it needs to be bumped up just a little.

 

I agree 3♣x is a top or bottom. I thought 3♣x was making somewhere between 30 and 37% of the time. If it was a percentage points lower than 30%, it would be a 3, if it was higher than 37% it would be a 5 or higher. I thought this was a fair placement for that contract.

 

As for why a 10 for a reasonably normal 3♥, I have two answers to that. I tried to make maximum on each hand at least a 10. See the hand where everyone bid 4♠. That is probably not the best thing to do, but I confused myself initially by picking out hands based on specific NS hands, but that isn't fair way to do this. Round 2 will avoid this flaw in hand selection. Still on the given results. Having said that, if we matchpoint the 26 boards here, giving a top to the 3♥, we find it earns 21.5 out of 26 possible matchpoints. As a percentage that is 82.7, and on a 12 point scale that works out to be 9.9. I don't calculate the matchpoints this way, however, I just used it to check teh arguement that heart part-score should be average on this hand.

 

So for the moment, the scores are staying were they are, but open questions are:

 

Should 4♥x get a higher score?

Should 3♣x get a higher score? Should it get a lower score? I will try some simulations.