1NT or 2M?

[Little Kid]

I'm having some trouble judging when to remove 1N to 2M at MPs after the auction 1x-1M-1NT. I thought on really minimal hands you should pull because you don't have the controls and entries to set up your long suit anyway, making 1NT a a long shot. On slightly stronger hands gambling 1NT seems ok as you can eventually set up your suit on hcp strength and maybe outscore 2M at MPs. If you have a singleton always pull 1N. With 5422 sit for it at the top of your range and correct with anything less than 10 or so. That is what I've been doing so far but I always seems to get it wrong :) Any suggestions?

 

Your agreements:

- 1NT rebids shows BAL hands, can have 4♠ after 1x-1♥-1NT.

- Opener can raise 1M on 3card support with a singleton or void somewhere.

 

The auction is always 1♦-1♥-1NT, what would you do with:

 

a)

♠ 832

♥ T8732

♦ A3

♣ J73

 

B )

♠ 542

♥ AQJT3

♦ 84

♣ 832

 

c)

♠ Q3

♥ J9854

♦ J76

♣ Q95

 

d)

♠ QT9

♥ QJ542

♦ J54

♣ K32

 

e)

♠ KT93

♥ T9642

♦ Q3

♣ Q7

 

f)

♠ 8743

♥ Q9653

♦ K4

♣ Ax

[MFA]

I would pull all of them to 2♥, except for d) which is perfect for 1NT with its 5333 shape :).

I'm close to passing with c) only.

[gnasher]

If this

1NT rebids shows BAL hands

means that opener can't have a singleton, I would bid on any hand where I had a five-card sut, unless it was a scattered 9-10 count in a 5332 shape.

[bluecalm]

Always 2M I think. Maybe some bizzare hands may pass.

If you find 5-3 fit it's huge gain whiel 5-2 is on average just as good as 1NT i believe.

[Little Kid]

If this

1NT rebids shows BAL hands

means that opener can't have a singleton, I would bid on any hand where I had a five-card sut, unless it was a scattered 9-10 count in a 5332 shape.

On this auction it means there is no singleton, although after 1♣-1♥-1NT I suppose 3-1-4-5 is still possible. Would that affect your decision after starting with 1♣?

[bluecalm]

On this auction it means there is no singleton, although after 1♣-1♥-1NT I suppose 3-1-4-5 is still possible. Would that affect your decision after starting with 1♣?

 

Yes, as now we can have disastrous result playing 5-1 fit.

I don't know what hand I would pass I think this style of bidding sucks hard. Probably only bidding 2M with KQTxx etc.

[pooltuna]

a) pass

b ) 2♥; in 1NT this is gambling that partner will be able to not only set up the ♥ but access them after he sets them up.

c) pass scattered values are more useful in 1NT

d) pass; 1NT probably will play better

e) pass

f) pass

[Fluffy]

2♥ on all of them, that's the reason why 1NT promises 2 cards.

[gordontd]

I'd rebid 2♥ on the first two, pass on the rest. But I'd be happier with a style in which opener more frequently raised to 2♥ rather than rebidding 1NT with three-card support.

[jdonn]

Because a singleton is so unlikely I would ignore that possibility, even if you reach a bad 5-1 fit the opponents don't know it's a bad 5-1 fit and that may help you in the play.

[MickyB]

If you sort out a way to show a weak hand with 4S5H after 1m:1H, 1NT, your life will be better.

[Lobowolf]

With my regular partners, we never rebid 1NT with a stiff or void, and I always rebid 2M with 5. Like everything else, it's imperfect, but I never miss a 5-3 fit, and I never play a 5-1. Once upon a time, I ran simulations that showed that the 5-2 fits were about as good as 1NT on par, and the 5-3 fits were better by somewhere in between 1/2-trick and 3/4 trick, as I recall.

[Lobowolf]

If this

1NT rebids shows BAL hands

means that opener can't have a singleton, I would bid on any hand where I had a five-card sut, unless it was a scattered 9-10 count in a 5332 shape.

On this auction it means there is no singleton, although after 1♣-1♥-1NT I suppose 3-1-4-5 is still possible. Would that affect your decision after starting with 1♣?

3-1-4-5 minimum is a 1♦ opener for me.

[awm]

My experience with this has apparently been different from most others. I've seen very few hands where a 5-2 major fit on this auction plays better than 1NT, and quite a few hands where even a 5-3 major fit plays worse. This seems to be different from auctions where opener has the five card major and responder is weak with a doubleton in support (where I agree that the 5-2 major fit is comparable to 1NT in terms of scores). I think it has to do with strength/location of values. Perhaps this is worthy of some simulation.

[bluecalm]

I can do simuls, just tell me some example hands for 1♥ bidder.

[nigel_k]

Very good post and it would be good to have simulation results for any of those hands. It does depend on how often you raise with three. I would normally only do so with a shortage or for positional reasons, e.g. xx AQx AKxxx xxx, but for a simulation it might be adequate to just assume all balanced hands bid 1NT.

 

I would pull with B and pass all the others, though I don't have much confidence in my judgment in this area.

[OleBerg]

I would pull all of them to 2♥, except for d) which is perfect for 1NT with its 5333 shape :P.

I'm close to passing with c) only.

Agree. (I would probably not have noticed the 14.th card though.)

[gwnn]

<3 5-2 fitz

[pooltuna]

I can do simuls, just tell me some example hands for 1♥ bidder.

I would suggest b ) and c)

[awm]

I'd be interested in looking at the following.

 

Opener has 12-14 high card points with:

 

2-4♠

2-3♥

4-5♦

2-4♣

 

At most one doubleton (so not 4252 or 2254).

 

Responder has 6-9 hcp with one of:

 

(1) 5♥-332 (any doubleton)

(2) exactly 5♥ and a four-card black suit (5422/5431)

 

In each case, compare the score for playing 1NT by opener versus playing 2♥ by responder. If the averages seem close, it may be worth also controlling based on the quality of responder's heart suit somehow.

 

The responder shapes/hands are selected for the following reasons. I wanted to exclude super-weak responder hands where 1NT would have no play and it might be best to bid 2♥ "on a prayer." I wanted to exclude hands which might make an aggressive invite via NMF (especially if they can play 2♥ on a decline). I wanted to exclude hands with 4♦ because 2♦ could easily be the best final contract (known 4-4 fit assuming 4333 opens 1♣).

[rbforster]

I would pull with B and pass all the others, though I don't have much confidence in my judgment in this area.

Me too. I like bidding 2M with a good major suit if it's only a 5 card suit (or any 6+ card suit). Most of the responding hands were balanced with decent values, and I think passing 1N is easier on those.

 

Hand A was the hardest for me, since it's both weak and with a poor heart suit. I think this is going to work badly either way, but I think I'd guess to pass and try get a free trick from soft defense (hiding the better hand).

[the hog]

I would pass every single one of these with the exception of B. This is really straightforward; we frequently raise on 3 card support, particularly if the doubleton is two small.

[bluecalm]

First simulation according to awm's requirements.

I've changed spade length in opener hand to 2-3 because he would rebid 1♠ in standard with 4. If that seems wrong to you let me know I will run it again with changed assumption.

Once I generated some hands it was obvious to me that unfortunately layouts are not realistic at all because opponents often has 6-5 somewhere and the like. This is why I added the following assumptions about defenders' hands:

 

-0-6 any or:

-no 6+card suit or 5-5 anywhere

 

So first one (1000 hands) :

 

1NT makes 49%

2♥ makes 62%

 

Number of tricks (different 1000 hands sample):

 

2♥: <7 7 8 9 10 11

122 270 339 223 50 6

 

avg: 7.83

 

1NT : <7 7 8 9 10 11

514 280 160 41 3 2

 

avg: 6.455

[awm]

Two comments:

 

(1) I was hoping you could separate the 5(332) hands from the 5-4 ones, as it's quite possible that the results will be different in these two cases.

 

(2) The original post did specify that 4♠ is possible for opener (bypass four-card spade suits) even though that's not standard, so one should probably run with those parameters.

[bluecalm]

Now:

 

1) Assuming any 5-3-3-2 from reponder with 4♠ possible in opener's hand:

 

1NT makes 45%

2♥ makes 52%

 

2) 5-4-2-2 with 4 in black suit (still 4♠ possible in o's hand)

 

1NT makes 46%

2♥ makes 60%

 

 

Those takes a lot of time. I can run more cases later if there is interest

 

I suppose adding 4♠ makes overall playability of hands weaker as there won't be as many 5-3 ♥ or 5-3 ♦ fits.