Cascade Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 [hv=d=e&v=b&s=skt53hjt973dcak93]133|100|Scoring: MPuncontested 2NT 3♦3♥* 3♠3NT 4♣4NT ?* usually only two hearts three hearts with no club and diamond control is possible.[/hv] Amazingly after the slam killer opening you got to bid all three of your suits and partner chose not to raise. Are you worth another bid? Perhaps based on the ♥ T9 etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 u got your suits in, and removing 3NT suggested slam. I think it is time to respect partner. Edit: I hope he deserved the respect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jillybean Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 6N I have 3 good suits and good spots. (I also often fall in love with my hand and overbid) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 5NT, the spots are good and my double dummy simulation suggests that slam will often be good. If partner bids 6C I pass, I won't pass 6S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayin801 Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 Partner didn't even want to bid a heart fragment, so I bet they don't have two honors. Something like AJx, Kx, AKQxx, QJx would really stink. I'll let this one go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 23, 2010 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 Partner didn't even want to bid a heart fragment, so I bet they don't have two honors. Something like AJx, Kx, AKQxx, QJx would really stink. I'll let this one go. How good do you expect the hearts to be for 4♥? I imagine that answer is dependent on how good partner's diamonds are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 23, 2010 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 my double dummy simulation suggests that slam will often be good Really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 Yeah but since I didn't trust the results either I'm now running a more precise simulation. Will get back to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 My first simulation was as follows: I gave partner 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP. 6NT made 71% of the time. In the new simulation I gave partner 19-20 HCP if he has 6 diamonds. Also, since I want to know how often 6C will be better when partner has 3 clubs I'm not giving him a 3-2-6-2 distribution. New results: 6NT makes 59% of the time, 6C makes 53% of the time and at least one of them makes 74% of the time. However, I don't think partner will be able to judge which slam is best. So it seems that if we want to move to slam, then we should just bid 6NT. The choice is therefore pass or 6NT, I think it is a close call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigel_k Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 Pass. AQxAxAQJxxQJx 4NT is high enough. We need to add ♠J and ♦10 to this for slam to be good, which is near perfect and arguably too good if it's 20-21. Don't forget that a simulation will always find the ♠J and always make the correct guess in diamonds or hearts if there is one. Double dummy analysis is often too high on slams because declarer has to make all the decisions and defence just follow suit. I'd go as far as to say that if it's 71% double dummy you want to stay out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayin801 Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 Partner didn't even want to bid a heart fragment, so I bet they don't have two honors. Something like AJx, Kx, AKQxx, QJx would really stink. I'll let this one go. How good do you expect the hearts to be for 4♥? I imagine that answer is dependent on how good partner's diamonds are. Given we're doing all this flopping around I would hope partner would stop off at hearts with anything good in the suit, even if they REALLY want to play in NT for some reason. With Ax or KQ wouldn't you try 4♥? I'm guessing that since partner hasn't done so, the heart suit is gonna be tough to play for just one loser. Edit: I guess there's cases where we will only need one trick from the suit, but then we need 11 from the other 3... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 the big advantage of passing 4NT is that partner will know you tried a partnership auction and made a partnership pass. He will want you for a partner next time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 23, 2010 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 My first simulation was as follows: I gave partner 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP. 6NT made 71% of the time. In the new simulation I gave partner 19-20 HCP if he has 6 diamonds. Also, since I want to know how often 6C will be better when partner has 3 clubs I'm not giving him a 3-2-6-2 distribution. New results: 6NT makes 59% of the time, 6C makes 53% of the time and at least one of them makes 74% of the time. However, I don't think partner will be able to judge which slam is best. So it seems that if we want to move to slam, then we should just bid 6NT. The choice is therefore pass or 6NT, I think it is a close call. My initial simulations also suggested 12 tricks. I have a suspicion that maybe there is a significant double dummy bias in this hand since you will frequently have to give up on on one suit early in the play e.g. on a diamond lead you have to pitch something. Obviously it is an advantage to make this pitch double dummy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 id bid 3♣ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmilne Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 id bid 3♣ Yeah. Although after 2NT-3♣-3♦-3♠-3NT-4♣-4NT I'd probably still want to pass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aguahombre Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 id bid 3♣ Yeah. Although after 2NT-3♣-3♦-3♠-3NT-4♣-4NT I'd probably still want to pass.auctions mean the same to the different posters and their partners. Just a matter of style. Same question whether to tell partner she is full of sh... or pass. I choose to get laid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinidad Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 The fact that partner bid 4NT, rather than 4♥ strongly suggests that they can cash ♥AK as their first two tricks in any slam. The question is whether they will lead the top hearts if the honors are split (probably not) and whether you will be able to make a slam if they don't. (You will have chances.) All in all, I consider this an easy pass. Maybe Han could run a sim where partner is 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP, without the ♥AK. :rolleyes: Rik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 id bid 3♣ Yeah. Although after 2NT-3♣-3♦-3♠-3NT-4♣-4NT I'd probably still want to pass. Yeah, but now you've rightsided 6♦... :rolleyes: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted July 23, 2010 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 The fact that partner bid 4NT, rather than 4♥ strongly suggests that they can cash ♥AK as their first two tricks in any slam. The question is whether they will lead the top hearts if the honors are split (probably not) and whether you will be able to make a slam if they don't. (You will have chances.) All in all, I consider this an easy pass. Maybe Han could run a sim where partner is 3253, 3262 or 2263 shape and 20-21 HCP, without the ♥AK. :) Rik I don't get this. Why opposite a 4=5=0=4 would we be inclined to want to try the 5=2 without knowing that responder has any particular suit quality in hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 My experience tells me that those 10's and 9's are worth about 1.5hcp when playing in NT thus I bash the slam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdanno Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 Disagree with both Rik and Wayne. Of course opener can suggest the 5-2 fit -- obviously responder won't pass without 5 good hearts. But opener won't bid 4♥ any time he has Ax or Kx - whenever he has good diamonds he will prefer NT over hearts.Of course, given that he opened 2NT, has 5 diamonds, and that we have 11 hcp with none in diamonds, opener is extremely likely to have good diamonds, so this whole discussion isn't overly helpful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OleBerg Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 Pass is standout to me. The stronglooking hearts are diminished considerably facing a doubleton, and the void in diamonds is a problem too. Partner is likely to have values in diamonds, so apart from giving bad communication, it also remives the option of possible finesses. (Like in "Either clubs behaves or the ♦Q is onside".) Only good thing is, that the opponents will probably make an advantageous or neutral lead, and will very seldom be able to find the passive heart lead, that will often be right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 AQxAxAQJxxQJx 4NT is high enough. We need to add ♠J and ♦10 to this for slam to be good, which is near perfect and arguably too good if it's 20-21. ♦10 by itself would be OK - diamonds 4-4 or spades coming in or a squeeze. I agree with the thrust of your argument, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 I have a suspicion that maybe there is a significant double dummy bias in this hand since you will frequently have to give up on on one suit early in the play e.g. on a diamond lead you have to pitch something. Obviously it is an advantage to make this pitch double dummy. I agree, was thinking the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hanp Posted July 23, 2010 Report Share Posted July 23, 2010 Disagree with both Rik and Wayne. Of course opener can suggest the 5-2 fit -- obviously responder won't pass without 5 good hearts. But opener won't bid 4♥ any time he has Ax or Kx - whenever he has good diamonds he will prefer NT over hearts.Of course, given that he opened 2NT, has 5 diamonds, and that we have 11 hcp with none in diamonds, opener is extremely likely to have good diamonds, so this whole discussion isn't overly helpful. Agree with this, the 4NT call doesn't tell us much except that partner doesn't have a fit. With a 3253 shape he'll pretty much always bids 4NT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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