Do you protect?

[1eyedjack]

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sj73ha84dkq2ckj83]133|100|Scoring: IMP

W...N...E...S

2♥..P...P...?

The 2♥ is a normal weak 2[/hv]

[whereagles]

Easy 2NT in my book lol.

[Furlan]

2NT.

[gnasher]

Pass. I think 2NT should show the same values as a direct 2NT. I know that in theory that means I might defiend 2♠ with 14 opposite 14, but it's never happened yet.

 

Did three people really vote for douible?

[JLOGIC]

I didn't vote but I'd double, not enough for 2N

[JLOGIC]

I don't understand pass at all. Aside from the obvious risk that we are cold for a vul 3N (and it doesn't have to be 14 opp 14, it can be 14 opp 13, 14 opp 12, 14 opp 11, 14 opp 10...), when we have this many points it's not that unlikely that it's just our hand for a partial because partner had a long suit but couldn't bid over a preempt because he didn't have enough points. Like he could have 8 points and 6 spades for an extreme example, or even 7 clubs etc etc.

 

But really we don't need such extreme hands, if he has 5 spades and a smattering of values it's probably right to play 2S instead of defending 2H.

 

Obv the most likely bad thing to happen is that we were beating 2H and go down 1 or 2 in whatever we play, and that's not negligible, but it doesn't seem that much more likely than making a partial when they were making which is about the same (or a little bit better).

 

We could also go for a number, but I think it's far more likely we just reach a making 3N. I guess I feel like bidding and making 3N is much more likely than gnasher thinks it is. We have Axx of hearts which is perfect (maybe we can shut them out and make a low HCP game), and we might just have it on power. If partner bids 3 of a minor (playing lebensohl) I am bidding 3N and am optimistic about my chances. If partner cuebids or jumps to 3N, I'm really optimistic.

 

I think this upside more than outweighs small net losses on partial hands (which could go either way, but probably we lose some) and the rare number.

 

Bidding 2N targets 3N even more but it eliminates our chance of playing 2S or 3 of a minor when partner doesn't have much, and gets us to even more aggressive 3Ns that we don't want to be in (because partner has no invite, and will always bid 3N with 8 and 9). It also makes us more likely to go for a number. It seems like we have the perfect range to X and get to game opposite a lebensohl bid when partner shows values, or stop in a suit partial (possibly 2S) when he doesn't have values.

[Siegmund]

2NT>P>>X in my book.

 

A dead minimum balancing 2NT so I have some sympathy for pass.

 

Axx is better than Qxx for doubling, but still, we are going to be playing a LOT of 4-3 fits taking the tap in the wrong hand. I feel better about defending than I do about playing a shaky semi-fit at 2S or 3m.

[helene_t]

Easy 2NT in my book lol.

Why "lol"? Does 2NT deny a stopper in your book? :)

[JLOGIC]

Axx is better than Qxx for doubling, but still, we are going to be playing a LOT of 4-3 fits taking the tap in the wrong hand. I feel better about defending than I do about playing a shaky semi-fit at 2S or 3m.

I don't understand this as you're a 2N bidder. Surely you'd rather play 2S in a 4-3 (when it could be a 5-3), or in a 4/5-4 club or diamond fit at the 3 level than in 2N when partner has a weak hand.

 

Of course, 2N will probably play better than 2S in a 3-3 fit lol.

 

Obviously if you bid you risk getting to a poor contract sometimes. Personally I'd always rather play a shaky 2S than a shaky 2N, especially when the latter is so much easier to X.

[Siegmund]

At this vulnerability, if partner is weak, I expect an awful board in just about any contract whether I am doubled or not. (Yes, I know it matters how far down we go at imps... but by doing ANYthing other than pass, we are gambling on finding partner with values.) That's why I rank pass in 2nd place and would rank it nearly tied with 2N at MPs. If partner is strong, on the other hand, I'd like him to know what my hand looks like so we reach the right contract :)

[jdonn]

I double. And I think I recognize this hand...

[Free]

Dbl for me, for various reasons already stated by jlogic

[Cascade]

Double for me.

 

I don't shade my 2NT in fourth seat over a weak two.

[whereagles]

Easy 2NT in my book lol.

Why "lol"? Does 2NT deny a stopper in your book? :D

lol because I'm sure others will laugh of it, so I laugh before ahah

[gwnn]

lol at whereagles

to make him happy

[whereagles]

see what I mean? :D (LOL)

[Codo]

When I voted pass, I had the impression that the bidding had been 2 ♠ pass pass so far.

 

After 2 ♥ I would double and glady reach my 3-3 fit in 2 ♠.

[1eyedjack]

Yes, I am sure that jdonn and others recognise this hand. I waited a couple weeks to post it, by which time you would either have forgotten it or never would :)

The action in the protective seat is probably not the most interesting action, but I thought it the best one to "poll" as the reasonableness of this action has a bearing I think on the reasonableness of earlier actions by the opposing direction.

 

The hands have been rotated, sorry about that, but it is from board 83 of the 2010 USBC final, segment 6 of 8.

 

20 Imps ride on whether or not you decide to protect, which of course is not to say that either decision is necessarily wrong in the long term just because of that.

Anyway, keeping the rotation as per the original post:

[hv=d=w&v=n&n=sq9652h975d543c94&w=sahkqjt63djt8ct72&e=skt84h2da976caq65&s=sj73ha84dkq2ckj83]399|300|Scoring: IMP

W...N...E...S

2♥..P...P...X

P...2♠..P...P

X...P...P...2N

X...P...P...P

Lead ♥K, result -5, 1400

14 Imps (v 3NT +1)[/hv]

Of the commentators, Kit Woolsey was dismissive of the decision to protect. Although he is in a minority among the voters in this poll, it is a significant minority (although one wonders if those voting pass recognise the hand, apart from jdonn wo recognised it and still protects).

 

To me, the massive swing results from a series of borderline but reasonable decisions, none of them cancelling out, starting with the decision to open 2♥ contrasted with 1♥ in the other room. I assume that the 2♥ is a normal weak 2 by agreement, given partner's decision to pass it and risk missing a game (which is by no means a racing certainty at single dummy, but one to be in).

 

The commentators were even stronger in their condemnation of the decision to pull 2♠X to 2N, and I would be interested in others' views on this. One poster acknowledged the possibility of landing in a 3-3 Spade fit, which I think is a tad unlikely. But the way the bidding develops I would not surprise me RHO had at least 5 Spades, in which case you may be able to scramble a bit more in the minors in NT, but willing to be convinced otherwise.

[jdonn]

I blame the 2NT bid. I think north is the one to run with 3 spades, maybe to 2NT then redoubling when that gets doubled. 2♠ doubled is just a bad board not a 1400 disaster. Obviously protecting is bad when partner has a 2 count!

[JLOGIC]

I might have been commentating when this happened lol, totally forgot.

 

In that case I pass!

[Codo]

I do not belive that X will reach a 3-3 spade fit more then once a year. But despite this possiblility running to 2 NT is quite a big lol...

[gnasher]

(although one wonders if those voting pass recognise the hand, apart from jdonn wo recognised it and still protects).

Why would somebody voting in an anonymous poll use UI?

[gnasher]

The result at the table was unfortunate, but it's the sort of thing that will occasionally happen if you make these shapeless takeout doubles.

 

That isn't my main reason for rejecting a double, though: a much more common result is that it takes us from a small plus against 2♥ to a small minus in 2♠ or 3m. We have a good hand for defence, and a poor one for offense. There's a significant risk that the contract that we end up in will not be our best fit.

 

Double also lacks much of the normal upside of a takeout double. In general, a balancing takeout double may gain because:

- We can make a game

- Both sides can make a partscore

- Opponents misjudge and overcompete

- Partner leaves it in for penalty.

 

Taking them in reverse order:

- On this hand, partner will almost never be leaving the double in.

- It's not likely that they'll misjudge and compete to 3♥ when they shouldn't - LHO's hand is fairly well defined, and if RHO thought 3♥ was making he would probably already have raised.

- The chance that both sides can make a partscore is not enormous. For example, if you swap ♠A and ♠2 on the actual hand, 2♥ is probably making but 2♠ probably isn't. To get to a layout where both partscores make, you have to swap ♠A and ♠2 and make spades 3-2.

- Yes, we may make game, but only 3NT is at all probable. For game to be a reasonable prospect, we'll need to find partner with about 12-15, the wrong shape for a takeout double, and unsuitable for an overcall.

 

The more I think about it, the less I like double.

[JLOGIC]

For game to be a reasonable prospect, we'll need to find partner with about 12-15, the wrong shape for a takeout double, and unsuitable for an overcall.

Huh? Again this is where we disagree the most, we have 14 and a weak 2 bidder on our left and a great heart holding (for 3N). Generally after a weak 2 we can often make a game with less HCP than usual (obv you know this), especially without RHO having a fit (and even if he does, maybe LHO has no entry). A suit like Axx opp xx is no longer a huge liability, and Axx opp Jxx or Qx is awesome.

 

We can not only play it really well and guess stuff but play against 1 hand and endplay them etc needing 12 seems like an enormous overbid, opposite 10 and certainly 11 I'll take my chances in a vul 3N!

 

Also these 10-11 counts become way more likely than your 12-15 as he probably wouldn't have bid with any shape (except a stiff heart or maybe a 6 card spade suit) with that strength.

 

Opposite some 9 counts I might make 3N if they have a long minor. All of this becomes especially true if they need to lead a spade and won't find it.

 

- The chance that both sides can make a partscore is not enormous. For example, if you swap ♠A and ♠2 on the actual hand, 2♥ is probably making but 2♠ probably isn't. To get to a layout where both partscores make, you have to swap ♠A and ♠2 and make spades 3-2.

 

We are probably pretty similar in this area but maybe I'm more optimistic than you. Sometimes we catch partner with a long suit since he would need a pretty decent hand to overcall directly.

 

if RHO thought 3♥ was making he would probably already have raised.

 

This is a minor point because I basically agree with you, but just on a side rant I think it is often right to pass a weak 2 bid by partner with 3 hearts and a hand that will compete to 3H. Typically I would do this on a hand with a fair amount of HCP because I would not be worried about them making game, and also because if we have enough points it's possible that the 2H bid has shut them out if the hand with short hearts has the least HCP of the partnership, or if hearts are 2-2 and HCP are pretty evenly split.

 

EG RHO with up to 9 or 10 and a stiff heart will pass, and then LHO will have a normal pass with some heart length.

 

The only caveat being I'm not worried about them competing effectively to 3S either.

 

Also, there are definitely hands with a doubleton heart that I would compete to 3H with but not bid it directly.

 

But most people share your view so it doesn't matter much what I think in theory, in practice I agree with you that pushing them to 3H is a very very unlikely upside.

 

At the end of the day if you feel like there is not much chance of bidding and making a game then obviously your choice of pass is right since our hand is defensive if it's a partial hand. I am just surprised you're so pessimistic about it.

[MarkDean]

Justin - I think what gnasher meant was that we need partner to have 12-15 for him to bid 3NT, if he has 10-11, we will probably be in a partial (and possibly in a 43 fit).