Clear to bid/pass?

[ewj]

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sjhj3daq7543ct863]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Partner opens a 5 card major 1♥ (strong NT), 2♥ spades and another on your right.....3♦ is forcing....up to you.

[gnasher]

Yes, very clear. I have an almost pipless seven-count with a singleton in partner's suit.

[MickyB]

Yes, very clear. I have an almost pipless seven-count with a singleton in partner's suit.

You have a doubleton in pard's suit.

 

This hand has reminded me to put transfers here into my system file.

[cherdanno]

I play 3D as forcing to game so I can't bid. Obviously I would love to, but...

[dake50]

Yup MickyB,

 

Transfers make this a non-problem: 3C -> 3D unless some big reason (jump accept, 3H=rebid 6+H middling+, 3NT, 3S) from partner.

[ewj]

Ok, suppose LHO now bids 4♠ and it comes back to you...you pass this out presumably?

[Cascade]

Clearly this is an advertisement to play non forcing new suits in this sort of auction (or transfers as someone else suggested).

 

It seems completely wrong to play methods that disallow action with such a potentially useful hand.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

if you cant bid diamonds now in a nonforcing manner, pass.

And if 4S comes back later, I pass again.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[mike777]

<!-- ONEHAND begin --><table border='1'> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td> Dealer: </td> <td> West </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Vul: </td> <td> None </td> </tr> <tr> <td> Scoring: </td> <td> IMP </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table> <tr> <th> <span class='spades'> ♠ </span> </th> <td> J </td> </tr> <tr> <th> <span class='hearts'> ♥ </span> </th> <td> J3 </td> </tr> <tr> <th> <span class='diamonds'> ♦ </span> </th> <td> AQ7543 </td> </tr> <tr> <th> <span class='clubs'> ♣ </span> </th> <td> T863 </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table><!-- ONEHAND end -->

 

Partner opens a 5 card major 1♥ (strong NT), 2♥ spades and another on your right.....3♦ is forcing....up to you.

pass

 

no problem yet....so?

 

i mean do we lose match on this deal???

[gnasher]

You have a doubleton in pard's suit.

Maybe you're right.

 

This hand has reminded me to put transfers here into my system file.

I play transfers in this sequence. However, I play them as invitational+, so I still wouldn't bid.

[hanp]

Very good auction for transfers, and I would want to use it on this hand. Get your suits in!

[whereagles]

Clearly this is an advertisement to play non forcing new suits in this sort of auction (or transfers as someone else suggested).

 

It seems completely wrong to play methods that disallow action with such a potentially useful hand.

Potentially misfitting as well. But anyway, we all know this is the complement to the other thread and 6♦ is extra cold.

[Cascade]

Clearly this is an advertisement to play non forcing new suits in this sort of auction (or transfers as someone else suggested).

 

It seems completely wrong to play methods that disallow action with such a potentially useful hand.

Potentially misfitting as well. But anyway, we all know this is the complement to the other thread and 6♦ is extra cold.

I think we are much more likely to have a good fit or double fit than for the hand to be a misfit.

[whereagles]

I think we are much more likely to have a good fit or double fit than for the hand to be a misfit.

Well, before anyone sees the cards, the likelyhood of a fit is like 80% or so (can be off by 5% or so). In this particular situation odds shouldn't change by a million and a fit is probably still the most likely situation

 

HOWEVER, if a simulation reveals the odds go 80 --> 60, then I'd say it's rather dangerous to get into the bidding with such a weakish hand, LHO knowing exactly what pard has and sitting on your left :)

 

What I mean is if a sim tells you fit odds drop considerably, it becomes risky to butt-in. Otherwise (small drop or even slight increase), then by all means be bold.

 

My money is in the drop.

[hanp]

Taking the bet, will do a simulation.

[hanp]

The chance of a red suited fit is about 91%.

[hanp]

In case you are interested, the chance that you have at least a 9-card fit is about 55% and the chance that you have at least a 10-card fit is 18%.

[hanp]

Let me add that such simulations can be done very quickly using Deal, by Thomas Andrews. You can download it for free at http://bridge.thomasoandrews.com/deal/index.html.

 

Here is the script I used for the 10-card fits:

 

 

south is {J J2 AQ9532 T832}

source format/none

sdev fitstats

main {

if {[hcp north] < 11} {reject}

if {[hcp east] < 7} {reject}

if {[spades east] < 5} {reject}

if {[clubs east] < 5 && [diamonds east] < 5} {reject}

if {[hearts north] < 5} {reject}

if {[spades north] >= [hearts north]} {reject}

if {[hearts north] < [diamonds north]} {reject}

if {[hearts north] < [clubs north]} {reject}

if {[hearts north] > 7 || [diamonds north] > 3} {fitstats add 1}

accept

}

deal_finished {

puts "Count = [fitstats count]"

}

 

On the command line I then type "deal -i test1 10000", where test1 is the name of the above script and 10000 is the number of hands I demanded. It took about 16 seconds and returned "Count = 1813".

[gnasher]

I don't think we should be that interested in an 8-card diamond fit, with horrible pips and something like a 60% chance that it's breaking 4-1. An 8-card heart fit might have a similar problem, but at least we don't already know that it has.

[Hanoi5]

Even if we have a fit the hand might be a little awkward to handle. I wouldn't bid 3♦ but I'd love to double (which means I want to penalize one of the suits) so that partner knows I have 'something'.

[whereagles]

@hanp: thx. Really suprised the odds favor overbidding.

[gnasher]

It didn't need a simulation to tell us that the two-suited overcall increases the chance that we have a red-suit fit.

 

A priori, RHO will on average have 3.25 spades. The Michaels cue bid tells us that he has at least five. If RHO has an above-average number of spades, that reduces the number of red cards that we can expect him to have. Some of those red cards will go to partner.

 

The same argument applies to the club suit (with less certainty because RHO might have diamonds).

 

However, this effect also increases LHO's expected red-suit length. That is, they increase the chance that our suits will break badly. The practical effect of this is that after a two-suited overcall it becomes a lot more important to find a nine-card fit. Hence this conclusion:

the odds favor overbidding.

is rather suspect.

[Cascade]

The best way to explore for our 9-card fit is to bid our six-card suit immediately.

 

When this is non-forcing it also limits the amount of trouble that we can get into if we happen to have a misfit.

 

My simulations showed that we had around 15% chance of having no fit.

[gwnn]

yay learned how to use the deal program. thanks for the little intro hanp.

[ewj]

well this thread is the same hand as

http://forums.bridgebase.com/index.php?showtopic=40146

 

we should probably have lost the match as the other table bid 3♦ on the responding hand but for some reason the opener merely bid 5♦...

 

feels like transfers after michaels are quite a nice idea