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Speculative double?


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[hv=d=s&v=b&s=skt762haj42djtc62]133|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

You are east and hear this auction by opps:

 

(1) - pass - (1) - pass

(1NT) - pass - (2NT) - pass

(3NT) - pass - (pass) - ?

 

opps are playing a natural 5crd major system with strong notrump.

 

LHO tanked a little before accepting the invite.

doubling now would request a spade lead.

Would you?

Would it matter if the scoring would be MP instead?

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It's definitely close. A spade lead is almost certainly the best start for the defense. Most of the conditions are there...

 

However, I can't even be that sure that the rest of the cards lie poorly for declarer. It doesn't look like the distribution is all that terrible. Furthermore, partner also had the chance to make such a double but did not. 6 or 7 points doesn't leave him much to have well placed clubs AND another card or two.

 

At MP I 100% don't double.

 

At IMP.... I double but not so much to collect a number as I think it may give us the best chance to set. I've been -750 before... -950 isn't nearly as tolerable though.

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Here is a thought. LHO hesitated before accepting on that auction. I don't find many players hesitating on this auction. they either like their minimum or they don't. The most frequent reason for hesitating, especially in an unpracticed partnership, is when opener has 3-card spade support ---and is deciding whether responder would have used NMF.

 

Does that change the prospects on doubling?

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I would not X. I assume partner will not lead a club, since that was a bid suit by declarer, and I have cards supporting any other natural lead he makes. Additionally, my spots are not good enough to suggest attacking spades unless my partner concurs in that decision.
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