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I'm certainly in for 4, but not quite as optimistic as everyone else. I expect partner to bid 2 on basically all decent 5-5 hands (you can't just concede the partscore every time). On a trump lead we'll probably only be able to ruff two spades; righty probably has 5 spades, so we're not setting up the suit. I wouldn't be surprised to be a trick short opposite some pretty decent looking hands (AJxxx QJxxx Ax x maybe?). But 3 can certainly be on much less and I don't expect partner to bid 4 every time on just a little extra (even changing SJ to SQ will make it quite good), so I think you have to try 4.
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I don't think it is so much a matter of what level you are - or think you might be - but whether your answer helps a B/I to do exactly what the title of the thread suggests - i.e. evaluate - coz to the average beginner and not a few intermediates, this hand looks like 7hcp, pass, wtp!

 

I think the key points are:

 

1) You passed - therefore P did not make a second bid (or shouldn't have) just for the sake of hearing his own voice - extras in terms of shape or strength or both are to be expected.

 

2) In particular P heard the double, so he knows that any heart fit we may have could be running into a bad break (not for certain - but likely). This makes a 5-5 or 6-5 shape in his hand a good deal more likely as well.

 

3) They appear to have found a diamond fit - means P has at most 2 cards there and just one loser is entirely possible. Plus we have no wasted high cards opposite this shortage.

 

4) If P has any minor length at all, it almost certainly in clubs - which we don't mind having 5 of them.

 

5) A stiff opposite partner's first suit is often not a particularly nice feature - but here we're hoping for a 9 heart card fit and the possibility of ruffing P's spades good looks like a real possibility.

 

6) If all else fails visualise a hand for P. What about if he's got something like

 

Axxxx

QJTxx

x

xx

 

which is way below strength for the opening never mind the second bid, and 10 tricks begins to look like it might have chances. OK I gave P the spade ace which is a much better card than KQ opposite our singleton - but P is allowed to have more high cards than this - especially something like the club ace.

 

7) Finally there are no guarantees - P could be 5503 instead of 5512 and the clubs break 4-1 and they get a club ruff and other such disasters - but it is a bidders game.

 

Nick

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I don't think our hand is worth 4D, we could have a fifth trump or better shape. I thought about it for a long time though, I could be convinced that 4D is right here, but I think the missing 5th trump is huge the more I think about it.
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I have been having a few drinks to honor our founding fathers.... so in my current state, I am thinking this hand is just good enough for 4 as a general slam try (not promising a diamond control). Yes, I know this is almost crazy talk, but I expect partner to hold a very good hand with 5+'s and 5+. And he rates to have very good controls in spades and at least one side suit as he bid his 2s without the ace or king opposite a partner who could not even make a negative double.

 

I could go into ZAR points and how to apply fit points when opener is known to be long opposite our short spade suit and we fully expect him to be short opposite our long club suit, but I will not as this is B/I forum. But I am thinking possible slam but I realize I overbid when loosened up with bubbly (or for our British friends as I learned tonight, champers).

 

But I think it is certainly closer to slam try than a pass of 2 and maybe that is the take home message. This is a good hand for this auction (up to the 3 bid).

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I have been having a few drinks to honor our founding fathers.... so in my current state,

Ben.....you just wrote a frickin tome on compound squeezes LOL.

Hope it made sense.... I am a little buzzed.. They wouldn't even let me drive home. First time my keys have been "taken away". I probably could have driven home from the fireworks, but probably for the best.

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I don't think our hand is worth 4D, we could have a fifth trump or better shape. I thought about it for a long time though, I could be convinced that 4D is right here, but I think the missing 5th trump is huge the more I think about it.

More or less this, except that I would probably be as bold as to bid 4 on a good day.

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