Bid the grand or not?

[dcohio]

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=skxxhakjt94dxca98]133|100|Scoring: MP

1NT (14-16)-4♦

4♥-4NT(1430)

5♥(2 no Q)-5NT

6♥(2 outside kings)-?

[/hv]

 

pass, 7♥, 7NT?

 

Grand is on with a finesse, or doubleton/singleton Q.

 

MP bid? IMP bid?

 

Edit: fixed

Edited June 28, 2010 by dcohio

[gwnn]

we don't have the Q, I'd have bid 6♥ last round.

 

I counted my cards again, now I have 12.

[pooltuna]

we don't have the Q, I'd have bid 6♥ last round.

 

I counted my cards again, now I have 12.

well i counted the cards and they look like 3613=13. My problem is I counted the tricks and came up with 6♥2♣2♦2♠=12 so not sure why I am so hot to trot and bid a grand

[Codo]

I have twelve tricks if I do not lose a trump. Why shall I look for 13?

[zasanya]

The hand has only 12 cards.I am assuming 6 card ♥ and a 6-3-2-2 or 6-3-3-1 shape.

Let us calculate acceptable odds for bidding vulnerable grand slamIf you bid grand make you score 2210 .If opponents bid only a little slam they get 1460.So your gain is 750 points which means you gain 13 imps.If you bid grand and go down 1 and they bid a little slam and make your loss is 1430 which means a loss of 17 imps .This means mathematically you will break even in the long run if you bid (17X100)/(17+13) =56.66% (say 57 %) slam.

If we assune P has 3 card ♥ then chances of catching Q are 40+12.5+5=57.5

Just about break even.If P has 2 cards in ♥ then chancs are of catching Q are a trifle less than 50 % .Not worth it.On the other hand if P has 4 card very high % of catching Q.about 88%.

I wont bid the grand but I am a pessimist

If Heart suit is 7 bagger then I will as if P has 3 cards chances of catching Q are very high and reasonable even if P comes up with 2 cards.

At mps it depends upon the field .I will not bid grand in an unknown field as most people dont bid grand unless they are very sure.

[bid_em_up]

Grand is on with a finesse, or doubleton/singleton Q.

Why are we so sure that the other black suit loser is covered?

 

Combine this with with the fact that we're missing the trump Q, and I'm comfortable with passing.

[gwnn]

with 3613 it's a 6♥ bid last time, wtp?

[dcohio]

I didn't have the hand record when posting this, but I found it now,

 

Change the spade suit to: KQx and now do you bid grand?

 

I definitely counted 13 winners IF the heart Q could be picked up...

[gwnn]

with 7 hearts it would be a 7♥ wtp hand. with 6 hearts it's 6♥ wtp. bridge is simple.

[billw55]

I thought texas transfers are for hands not interested in slam.

[gwnn]

it's like this:

 

transfer then 4N=quant

texas then 4N=rkc (you don't care about anything else)

 

transfer then 5m=void and slam try (i think)

texas then 5m=exclusion

[aguahombre]

Yeh, Gwnn....unless you are using the Meckwell toy. They apparently use 2-level xfer, then 5m as an answer to an invisible RKC which didn't occur. So the bid shows a long major and the number of Keys to partner all at the same time.

[mikeh]

Partner has shown 14 hcp, so he certainly doesn't need to hold a side Queen that would take care of our side loser in the blacks...we get one pitch on the diamond K, but then have another black x with which to deal.

 

To me, at mps, 6N seems clear, while at imps, I'd bid 6♥.

 

6N may be cold even with a heart loser, and will not usually play worse than the suit. But since there is no imp gain for 6N compared to 6H, and 6H will play better on some layouts...we will usually have more squeeze potential in a suit contract and partner may have a 5 card suit that can be established by ruffing...I'd always bid hearts at imps.

 

BTW, partner should be denying xxxx in hearts....opposite a known 6+ suit, he should show the heart Queen if he has 4 (or more) hearts.

 

One should generally avoid slams that are not substantially better than 50%, unless needing a big swing. This is especially so when there is some chance that even small may be missed: imagine partner holding 14....and opening 1D and rebidding 1N over 1♥. I would expect, in most mp fields, that there will be a significant number of game bidders. Even if I held KQx in spades, where I would expect virtually the entire field to be in slam, this is not a hand to venture grand on....if it makes, you turn average plus (your expectation in 6N) to a top, while if it loses, you turn average plus into a zero. And it is worse at imps.

[jdonn]

We have like 11.5 tricks and partner has 1 to 3 more points, right? Just making sure I wasn't reading incorrectly...

[aguahombre]

So a total of 12.5 to 14.5 (do I need an emoticon?) tricks available makes good odds if we weren't missing a big card, which we are since partner cannot have four small hearts.

[mikeh]

We have like 11.5 tricks and partner has 1 to 3 more points, right? Just making sure I wasn't reading incorrectly...

It turns out that you were reading incorrectly :D

 

The OP stipulated 1N was 14-16, and he has shown 2 Aces and 2 Kings, so unless my abacus is completely out of battery power, he has shown 14 hcp, leaving him a possible 0-2 left to go.

[pooltuna]

I didn't have the hand record when posting this, but I found it now,

 

Change the spade suit to: KQx and now do you bid grand?

 

I definitely counted 13 winners IF the heart Q could be picked up...

crunch the numbers to see! it is essentially 1/3 that partner has the ♥Q now you need the probabilities that he has 2,3,4,or5 ♥ but no Q(if that is relevant)

[neilkaz]

I thought texas transfers are for hands not interested in slam.

Texas then 4NT is the standard way to set trumps and bid keycard.

 

Jacoby then 4NT is quant with 5 trumps.

[neilkaz]

I didn't have the hand record when posting this, but I found it now,

 

Change the spade suit to: KQx and now do you bid grand?

 

I definitely counted 13 winners IF the heart Q could be picked up...

Please edit the original hand since I think there's been lots of confusion about what was actually held based on some of the replies.

[bid_em_up]

.[hv=s=skqxhakj109xdxca98]133|100|[/hv]

 

Assuming this is really my hand, I will convert to 6N since I can count 12 tricks. (5 hearts, 3 spades plus AK, AK in the minors) and be happy.

[bid_em_up]

it is essentially 1/3 that partner has the ♥Q

Do you really believe this?

[gwnn]

it is essentially 1/3 that partner has the ♥Q

Even if I accepted that about 1/3 of people who play bridge can't discern between the ♥Q and a small ♥, he still has shown 14 hcp and it has a very low likelihood that he'd have the ♥Q as well.

[neilkaz]

.[hv=s=skqxhakj109xdxca98]133|100|[/hv]

 

Assuming this is really my hand, I will convert to 6N since I can count 12 tricks. (5 hearts, 3 spades plus AK, AK in the minors) and be happy.

OK I also bid 6NT. At IMPs this guards against a freak ruff and me then being unlucky enough to not pick up the Q♥.

 

Note that opener's response to RKCB didn't show the Q. I'll presume that opener would have shown the Q anyhow with 4 card support since Texas then RKCB really showed have 6+ trumps. I really think opener has either 2 or 3 trumps and that makes it bad IMP odds to bid a grand.

 

What about MP? I think we are slight favorites to take 6 tricks if PD has 3♥ and slight underdogs if he has only 2. On balance maybe we are very tiny favorites to take 6 ♥ tricks but I'll settle happily for 6 NT noting that in a typical event I am outscoring those who stay in 6♥ and that a couple pairs may actually miss slam especially if using a higher NT range and not starting with 1NT (It may seem unbelievable to miss slam here, but we've all seen worse).

 

6NT since I can tolerate the lead in any side suit twice.

[Fluffy]

if the hand is online, I play grand, there is no point on claiming 12 tricks when you can just as well play 7.

 

If the hand was held by me last week I'd also obviously bid grand, 6 would probably fail, but grand on a finese... oh boy that is a sure thing.